Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Slapshot]

Well done Mark!

Thankfully I closed my long at 10918 for a small profit 20mins before the trap door was opened.

Interesting that there are now three lower highs starting 29/11, 1/12 & today and very strong support at the 10800 area.... big descending triangle anyone?

 

[dc2000]

Mark not quite gave back 30 points

Which will teach me not to enter tomorrows limit orders in today

 

[macbonzo]

I don't think we can underestimate the significance of yesterday's sharp 3.00pm reversal. For a market which is up 85 points, with very strong internals, to fall 50 points in a 15 minute period it means there must have been a hell of a lot of selling. Even after that fall there was another 30 point fall 20 minutes later.

Now, you could suggest that it was programme trading or maybe due to the fall in the bond yields, but whatever the reason we got an avalanche of sells in a very short space of time. To me, this should make the bulls more than a bit cautious. We seem to have had the "January effect" and now some of the bigger players are thinking, well we got up this far, why, and what next. What makes me more cautious is that the economic data has been pretty much universally good. 11000 may well now be a bridge too far,

 

[Racer]

As they say xmas comes earlier every year

 

[twiggytwo]

Dow possible fall

I don't think we can underestimate the significance of yesterday's sharp 3.00pm reversal. For a market which is up 85 points, with very strong internals, to fall 50 points in a 15 minute period it means there must have been a hell of a lot of selling. Even after that fall there was another 30 point fall 20 minutes later.

Now, you could suggest that it was programme trading or maybe due to the fall in the bond yields, but whatever the reason we got an avalanche of sells in a very short space of time. To me, this should make the bulls more than a bit cautious. We seem to have had the "January effect" and now some of the bigger players are thinking, well we got up this far, why, and what next. What makes me more cautious is that the economic data has been pretty much universally good. 11000 may well now be a bridge too far,

Hi mac, saw your post I have been short since Tuesday 29th Nov close Futures 10,909
Cash 10,888
my Indicator is still showing a short ----time will tell
Best Regards

 

[dc2000]

See ya at the bottom

Lets go round again
baby lets do it one more time

or maybe Cha cha slide


Still want 11k though just incase ya'll thinkin I was a bear

 

[dc2000]

1250 Spx anyone??

 

[houdani]

short closed out 10823, that was nice...

 

[macbonzo]

Unusally, the S&P is weaker than the Dow today. S&P is struggling to hold 1260. The usual team of rent - a - gobs are not sounding quite to bullish today. I have a feeling that we may see a repeat of yesterday unless the S&P can get above 1262 within the next hour.

 

[FetteredChinos]

if you are referring to me Macb,

i am

a) not trading today

and

b) still hugely bullish...

yet another successful defence of the 10800 region..watch the bounce..

 

[Bez]

For the Elloitt followers :?:

Irreg Failure anyone ?

 

[macbonzo]

if you are referring to me Macb,

i am

a) not trading today

and

b) still hugely bullish...

yet another successful defence of the 10800 region..watch the bounce..

No FC I was not referring to you. As if I would ever call you a rent - a - gob. I meant
Mark Pado, Bob Pisani, Barry Hyman et al. They seem to be revising down their expectations somewhat since yesterday.

I do think that yesterday's sell off has spooked the market. I am a very short - term trader so 40 points is a lot in my book. I just feel that we may have seen the highs for the year. Yesterday I did not have that feeling.

 

[dc2000]

Im still bullish just want a better price

I will live with the bounce around stuff for a few more trading days and I believe in SANTA

And just noticed Im now a veteran but have a long way to go to become a leg-end like FC

 

[Slapshot]

For those who trade intraday the action is going to get interesting real soon...

Higher lows & lower highs, the trendlines of which are converging on 10835ish, if it breaks north 10880 will be back in play, south and it's got to get past 10800 and some serious support.

 

[dc2000]

south and it's got to get past 10800 and some serious support

Wish granted

 

[houdani]

im completely convinced we`re heading above 11000. ive seen enough over the last three months to tell me its not a matter of if but when ,and the when for me is next week some time.until then im firmly in range mode until the big 11000 goes. i couldnt even contemplate taking a long-term short unless 10700 is broken convincingly.there thats enough desperate self-reassurance for the day.

 

[Racer]

"Data from the most recent survey show that, from 2001 to 2004, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) median and mean family incomes were little changed--a small gain in the median and a small decline in the mean."

"Changes in Family Wealth
Income is an essential measure in gauging the ongoing health of family finances, but net worth is, in the long term, an even more important yardstick. Compared with the significant gains observed in real median and real mean net worth from 1998 to 2001, changes over the 2001-04 period were subdued. Over that more recent period, the median net worth of all families in real terms was essentially unchanged, while the mean net worth increased about 6 percent. A rise in the mean relative to the median indicates that the gap in net worth between households in the upper part of the wealth distribution and other households has widened."

"The rise in the homeownership rate is important for wealth creation, but there has been a concern that increased levels of home-secured debt--such as mortgages, home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit--could negate any gains from the rise in house values that occurred over the past few years."

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20051129/default.htm

 

[macbonzo]

This is, in my opinion, what will utimately decide the next big move in the markets. Like in the UK peoples "wealth effect" is very highly correlated with their perception of the value of their property. The moment people see the value of their property actually fall, they cease spending all all but the necessities. Unfortunately people have very selective memories and take the view that "property is a good investment in the long term" They tend to forget that property is like any other asset (except much less liquid), and as such can easily fall 20% or more in a very short period of time.

A big chunk of the US real estate market is looking very overvalued imho.

 

[mark twain uk]

houdani,

"im completely convinced we`re heading above 11000" is such a bold statement, only the youth could give you such confidence, carry on, don't let them grind you down

 

[Slim Sladey]

Bounce anytime soon?