Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

Some interesting economic figs due next week

The week ahead

 

[rog1111]

yahoos historical Dow highs and lows are "incorrect" (or correct depending on which way you look at it), they are calculated from the daily highs and lows of the stocks, not the actual live index values. A more accurate representation of what you are referring to is ^djx (DJIA / 10)

I got the figure from Yahoos historical prices for the Dow

 

[Racer]

Fewer new buyers can afford a home
Housing affordability for first -time buyers dives as rates rise

Rest of article


Major builderToll Bros share price fell on profit warning

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TOL&t=5d


Many people have squeezed into homes with creative financing -- including exotic mortgages such as "option ARMs" that allow buyers to skip part of their interest payment and roll it into the principal they owe. But even that game has pretty much played itself out. If prices fall, many recent buyers may find themselves owing more on their houses than the dwellings are worth
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051109/244/fwgkc.html

 

[amarshak]

looks like we will retest 10600 next week again before moving above 10700

 

[dc2000]

We could do, although personally I would like to see it hit resistance at 10740 / 1238 S&P early week ( twice if poss) before a pull back

 

[kriesau]

Fewer new buyers can afford a home
Housing affordability for first -time buyers dives as rates rise

Many people have squeezed into homes with creative financing -- including exotic mortgages such as "option ARMs" that allow buyers to skip part of their interest payment and roll it into the principal they owe. But even that game has pretty much played itself out. If prices fall, many recent buyers may find themselves owing more on their houses than the dwellings are worth
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051109/244/fwgkc.html

As rising interest rates and inflation start to hit bond sales yields will rise and long term interest rates will follow (bond yields hit their highest level in 16 months this week). The $11 trillion consumer debt market (more than 60% of this is mortgage debt) will come under pressure as consumer interest rates rise and consumer spending will tail off. Since over 70% of the US GDP is based on consumer spending (currently fueled by asset refinancing rather than productivity gains) corporate earnings will be hit and so will the markets.

 

[SOCRATES]

Again, you all miss the significance of the obvious.

I made a call on the Dow which was unerringly right, and it is not the first time I have made accurate calls on these boards before, and if my memory serves me right, I have never ever made a wrong call.

So understand that I am not saying this to prove that I am right, I am saying this to show the majority are consistently WRONG.

This is a source of enormous amusement to me because of the reactions and responses from members.

Whilst all of you are going round the houses with all of this, yet again you miss the significance of the OBVIOUS.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Again, you all miss the significance of the obvious.

I made a call on the Dow which was unerringly right, and it is not the first time I have made accurate calls on these boards before, and if my memory serves me right, I have never ever made a wrong call.

So understand that I am not saying this to prove that I am right, I am saying this to show the majority are consistently WRONG.

This is a source of enormous amusement to me because of the reactions and responses from members.

Whilst all of you are going round the houses with all of this, yet again you miss the significance of the OBVIOUS.

I congratulated you on your call. It was when you said it had hit your target that I wondered where your stop would have been. Then looking at the chart, it didn't seem that impressive. This is judging you by the standards that you boast you have achieved. If you were not so critical of others, they would probably congratulate you as well.

As for never making a wrong call, I remember a few fishing expeditions on one of Chartman's threads. You did catch a small turn in the end but I wasn't impressed. I am sure there was another unimpressive one in this thread. Don't think I will wade through all your posts to find them though

 

[Racer]

Interesting that OPEC has been reducing and the UK increasing significantly!




MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES
(in billions of dollars)
HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD

2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
Country Aug July June May Apr Mar Feb Jan

Japan 684.5 683.3 681.3 686.2 685.7 680.5 680.7 679.3
Mainland China 248.0 242.1 243.7 243.5 240.5 223.5 224.9 223.5
United Kingdom 2/ 174.2 160.0 145.0 132.5 125.2 122.2 111.6 101.1
Caribbean Banking Centers 3/ 103.4 102.9 106.6 125.5 124.6 137.2 104.7 94.2
Taiwan 71.6 72.3 71.2 70.9 70.6 71.1 68.5 68.3
Germany 65.0 61.9 61.2 61.2 60.8 56.0 53.0 53.8
Korea 59.1 59.2 59.6 58.7 55.9 57.1 53.1 53.6
OPEC 53.8 52.7 57.3 62.6 60.6 62.2 67.6 67.0

for better format see
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

 

[SOCRATES]

I congratulated you on your call. It was when you said it had hit your target that I wondered where your stop would have been. Then looking at the chart, it didn't seem that impressive. This is judging you by the standards that you boast you have achieved. If you were not so critical of others, they would probably congratulate you as well.

As for never making a wrong call, I remember a few fishing expeditions on one of Chartman's threads. You did catch a small turn in the end but I wasn't impressed. I am sure there was another unimpressive one in this thread. Don't think I will wade through all your posts to find them though

It is very kind of you to reply and take such detailed interest and you needn't make the effort.

 

[badtrader]

Again, you all miss the significance of the obvious.

I made a call on the Dow which was unerringly right, and it is not the first time I have made accurate calls on these boards before, and if my memory serves me right, I have never ever made a wrong call.

So understand that I am not saying this to prove that I am right, I am saying this to show the majority are consistently WRONG.

This is a source of enormous amusement to me because of the reactions and responses from members.

Whilst all of you are going round the houses with all of this, yet again you miss the significance of the OBVIOUS.

Anyone one could have made that kind of call. the big sell off we had in the Dow, There was a good chance they be correct. The market was oversold at the time in question, But hey if you was wrong nobody would have notice it anyway. it was a 50/50 call and now you want to look like a master trader. Let me give a 50/50 call on the Dow it will go down 300 points form here about. Like you I wont give a stop. now my chances of looking good are as high as 90%. Bottom line talk is cheap did you have any money on the Master trader LOL.If you want to look smart give a few live calls this week. You can prove everyone wrong then, but I doubt you will.

For the record short here for 300 points, I am not putting money on this trade its a paper trade, and you can look very impressive when paper trading with no stop. the same as Socrates did on his long trade. :cheesy:

 

[Over the Top]

It is very kind of you to reply and take such detailed interest and you needn't make the effort.

Indeed. To be fair Socrates did get the direction right. OK it wasn't when he said it would happen, and it didn't actually make the size of the move he predicted and it wasn't much of a move anyway given the opening level and the 'predicted' level. But he did get the general direction right.

What I found interesting was his claim (somewhere) of making a 400+ points profit in that move (can't find any post where he originally made his opening call on that) while simultaneously claiming he didn't have a position on that instrument 'at the mo'.

I bet old 'blind' Frank marked this up as another fantasy trade.

 

[Minder]

Majority wrong ?

So understand that I am not saying this to prove that I am right, I am saying this to show the majority are consistently WRONG.

Socrates,

I am intrigued - how do you know that the majority are consistently wrong ? Explain it to me please, I would prefer an explanation rather than a statement of the apparent obviousness of the answer to my question.

Thank you.

 

[Pat494]

New Week

Morning all
FWIW opening down and continuing a bit is my view.
( with Soc's permission naturally !! ) lol

 

[kriesau]

Refer to my previous post number 3922. you see how the weakness has not been totally resolved and how the price has drifted down considerably. However it appears that the fall has been arrested (S.V.) so it can at least meander along the original course it was following.
4875 + however not expected....

Quote "and if my memory serves me right, I have never ever made a wrong call" Alberts post 7591 at 1.34pm on 13/11/05.

So he claims that he has never, ever been wrong :!:

Hmmm.....my dictionary defines megalomania as "a disorder of the mind marked by feelings of personal omnipotenceand grandeur"

Oh dear - his gargantuan brain must have blown a fuse and let him down or perhaps he is just tells 'porkies' when he is wrong.

On Friday May 13th (appropriately), about an hour before the FTSE closed, he made a very rare and specific prediction. He posted that "4875 + however not expected". The FTSE closed at 4887. He also made a prediction on the Dax that day which was wrong too.

Tsk, Tsk, Tsk, Albert :cheesy:

 

[wasp]

So understand that I am not saying this to prove that I am right, I am saying this to show the majority are consistently WRONG.

You posted it purely for your ego, nothing more, nothing less.

The problem is that no one believe's you, or is in the slightest bit interested.

 

[dc2000]

Hi Pat
opening down a bit would be nice but would still like to see some more to the up side today

 

[tradesmart]

Looking up.......?

Well-defined support and resistance levels over the last few months, and it now looks like a breakout north is likely (chart attached)….

The Dow looked in danger of rolling over in the face of higher bond yields and oil prices, but those adverse pressures have apparently now temporarily abated and the big institutional investors whose money flows control this thing, may want to end the year on a stock ‘high’.

10700ish resistance has been a formidable barrier in recent months, but a breakout now could propel the index to over 11000 if the target of the 200-700 consolidation height is reached…..

But plainly a failure to penetrate resistance now and a break of lower support could provide a big downside reaction……

To support the bullish case, I note that the Nasdaq appears to be poised for a significant breakout which is likely to support a move higher on the Dow......

 

[Racer]

I don't take a lot of notice of analysts generally but some comments are of interest about GM

GM's health cuts not enough

GM was the main, ahem, driver of the Dow on Friday

 

[dc2000]

Personally I would like to see it hit resistance around 10740 1238 S&P before any meaningful pull back. my map or plan for today is an earlyish low 665 up to 741 of course I may have it upside down