Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[dc2000]

and for once I have to say I agree with Soc the direction of the DOW has been glaringly obvious for some time yet I see no discussion on the best way to TRADE IT

 

[SOCRATES]

and for once I have to say I agree with Soc the direction of the DOW has been glaringly obvious for some time yet I see no discussion on the best way to TRADE IT

Well it is a bit late in the day and I have kept quiet because no sooner do I lay out the facts than some creature comes out from under a stone and makes a nuisance.

OK....The Dow has had 4 major drops since April, preceding the current one.

They are :~

April 20th
May 13th
July 7th
August 30th

On each of these bottoms there has been accumulation.

On each of the corresponding tops the distribution has not been final.

Each of these bottoms has been higher than the previous one.

Each of the tops attributable to these marked bottoms has been higher than the previous one.

This indicates that the bullish situation that started in late October last year is not exhausted up to this point.

Then we have the current drop, But the current drop appears to be running out of steam.

So, on balance, we could say the current drop is an interrruption to the bullish conditions that have prevailed up till now.

If this drop is arrested with significant volume underneath once more the next leg up potentially looks a 450 pointer.

That is the state of play at the moment, nothing more, nothing less.

 

[GKB]

update

Hi,
Just a quick one. If you remember from last week, I promised to update my (awful) current positions.
I'm now 120 points underwater on full exposure. Not clever. My results are satisfactory overall with an average of 5% return on total capital per week over the last 6 months.
I'll get back to the chatroom when I've something new to add/trade.

Regards,

Graham

 

[Pat494]

Racer
Should be a happy girl with recent falls ?

Positively up today on opening and may continue imho

 

[Racer]

Racer
Should be a happy girl with recent falls ?

Positively up today on opening and may continue imho

But watching for signs of strength

 

[Racer]

'The results topped the range of 27 cents to 31 cents a share the company estimated in a warning to investors just three weeks ago.'
And can you believe what they think of the next 3 weeks or quarter if they can't get it right so close to earnings release

Alcoa earnings

 

[Racer]

My results are satisfactory overall with an average of 5% return on total capital per week over the last 6 months.
I'll get back to the chatroom when I've something new to add/trade.

Regards,

Graham

Well done on your trading returns over the last 6 months, hope to see you in the room soon

 

[chump]

If anyone has the data feed (I do not) it would be interesting to see an overlay chart of the Dow with Gold...anyone got that ability ?

 

[rog1111]

chump, try this :

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DJ&o=GCZ05&a=D&z=650x450&d=medium&b=LINE&st=

rog1111

If anyone has the data feed (I do not) it would be interesting to see an overlay chart of the Dow with Gold...anyone got that ability ?

 

[chump]

Thank you kindly Rog..just wanted to see where the money was going ..pretty clear isn't it ....LOL now that's what I call accumulation...and my economics teacher told me to take up carpentry

 

[Racer]

Gold
Dow

 

[dc2000]

Absolutely Soc
I think your 450 is a little conservative though

I guess in three or four months the talk will be on how the Dow will push on to new highs just when the players take their profits to the Bank

 

[counter_violent]

post 7206....make of it what you will



Right i'm off down the boozer for some John Smiths




C V

 

[kriesau]

Well it is a bit late in the day and I have kept quiet because no sooner do I lay out the facts than some creature comes out from under a stone and makes a nuisance.

.

There he goes again - there has been no rancour on this board in his absence but then he returns making unwarranted gratutious comments such as "some creature comes out from under a stone and makes a nusiance"

The delicious irony of that statement is that it is he who is the classic example of a "creature (who) comes out from under a stone and makes a nusiance" with his supercilious remarks !

 

[Racer]

Nas andS&P though lows

 

[kriesau]

Well it is a bit late in the day and I have kept quiet because no sooner do I lay out the facts than some creature comes out from under a stone and makes a nuisance.

OK....The Dow has had 4 major drops since April, preceding the current one.

They are :~

April 20th
May 13th
July 7th
August 30th

On each of these bottoms there has been accumulation. On each of the corresponding tops the distribution has not been final. Each of these bottoms has been higher than the previous one. Each of the tops attributable to these marked bottoms has been higher than the previous one. This indicates that the bullish situation that started in late October last year is not exhausted up to this point. Then we have the current drop, But the current drop appears to be running out of steam. So, on balance, we could say the current drop is an interrruption to the bullish conditions that have prevailed up till now. If this drop is arrested with significant volume underneath once more the next leg up potentially looks a 450 pointer.

That is the state of play at the moment, nothing more, nothing less.

Not quite representative of "the facts" but then you always did confuse your own prejudices and opinions with "facts" didn't you !

The last top - since the August 29th bottom - was a lower high and yesterdays low was a lower low than previously. Therefore the sequence of higher highs and higher lows has now been broken. The Dow could still see a lower low than yesterday before we see a rally back up towards 10500.

Just breached 10260 - but not very convincingly !
Will it try and breach 10200 and go on to test 10050 or will somewhere in the 10200/250 range be the point of low consolidation on this cycle ? That is the question !!!

:cheesy:

 

[Racer]

'The results topped the range of 27 cents to 31 cents a share the company estimated in a warning to investors just three weeks ago.'
And can you believe what they think of the next 3 weeks or quarter if they can't get it right so close to earnings release

Alcoa earnings

Alcoa losing the gains it has made earlier in the day on the back of those amazing
earnings

 

[Minder]

Not quite representative of "the facts" but then you always did confuse your own prejudices and opinions with "facts" didn't you !

The last top - since the August 29th bottom - was a lower high and yesterdays low was a lower low than previously. Therefore the sequence of higher highs and higher lows has now been broken. The Dow could still see a lower low than yesterday before we see a rally back up towards 10500.

Just breached 10260 - but not very convincingly !
Will it try and breach 10200 and go on to test 10050 or will somewhere in the 10200/250 range be the point of low consolidation on this cycle ? That is the question !!!

:cheesy:

If it breaks through to the upside, having broken down out of the trend referred to in SOC's post, where is it ?

Is the trend restored, or is this new territory ?

 

[kriesau]

If it breaks through to the upside, having broken down out of the trend referred to in SOC's post, where is it ?

Is the trend restored, or is this new territory ?

Good question and nobody knows the answer ! If they try and claim that they do then they are charlatans and/or liars.

We are currently in a 10200 - 10350 trading range - a convincing breach of either these threshholds will indicate market direction.

 

[chump]

Looks like a breakout from triangle forming from mid last week.