Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

2:59 (Dow Jones) Greenspan warns in his speech low risk premiums can't fall "indefinitely" and says markets should not rely on the Fed to curb asset price bubbles. He adds the economy has withstood rising energy prices "reasonably well." Greenspan says "because people are inherently risk-averse, risk premiums cannot decline indefinitely...Whatever the reasons for narrowing credit spreads, and they differ from episode to episode, history cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets."

 

[Racer]

Crude may have gone down but gasoline and heating oil went up

 

[rav700]

Any thought about the dow movements tommrow????Racer

 

[ukhero]

From what I have heard the market has gone up 40 point not due to Mr Greenspans speech but due to oil closing significantly lower hmmmm.
I am still of the view that the market will come down in the next couple of days and there will be some heavy selling,taking month end into consideration... might be wrong on time will tell.
I am still going to be shorting the market at the 10500 level...

I'm of the same opinion, rav700.

I've got my hat and coat ready. We will see.

Uk

 

[rav700]

Thanks for your comments UKhero
My main reasons for going short at this point are that again we did see that it did not break the 10485 resistance again and also being the end of the month should see some profit taking.
I have studied the more long term charts and it seem that the market does generally fall a bit more this time of the month hence my comments..

 

[Racer]

Any thought about the dow movements tommrow????Racer

have a look at charts on s&p thread
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=209209#post209209

tomorrow, oil figures
there has been a lot of selling pressure over the last few days at highs of the day, despite oil price fall today and 'relief rally'
so unless there is some real strength soon then the selling could continue.

 

[Minder]

From the FT

Rita causes record damage to oil rigs

Oil prices eased on Wednesday over concerns that demand for crude would be hit by the continued shutdown of refineries. US crude fell 27 cents to $64.80 a barrel by 06:444 GMT after losing 75 cents on Tuesday.

--------------------------------------------------------------

So demand should ease due to lack of refinery capacity, but supply will be curtailed due to damage caused by Rita. No correction in crude prices then ?

 

[Racer]

From the FT

Rita causes record damage to oil rigs

Oil prices eased on Wednesday over concerns that demand for crude would be hit by the continued shutdown of refineries. US crude fell 27 cents to $64.80 a barrel by 06:444 GMT after losing 75 cents on Tuesday.

--------------------------------------------------------------

So demand should ease due to lack of refinery capacity, but supply will be curtailed due to damage caused by Rita. No correction in crude prices then ?

Probably go down cos everything is rosy in the bull ring

 

[Pat494]

Just my tuppenyworth but I am cautious about rushing into shorts just yet

 

[Racer]

From the FT

Rita causes record damage to oil rigs

Oil prices eased on Wednesday over concerns that demand for crude would be hit by the continued shutdown of refineries. US crude fell 27 cents to $64.80 a barrel by 06:444 GMT after losing 75 cents on Tuesday.

--------------------------------------------------------------

So demand should ease due to lack of refinery capacity, but supply will be curtailed due to damage caused by Rita. No correction in crude prices then ?

reading that link, and looking at the price of oil, hmm,

 

[Racer]

Oil above 65 again

 

[kriesau]

Oil above 65 again

Oil was above $65 most of yesterday too.

Durable orders up 3.3% last month.
IBM up 1% before the bell. Home Depot, Pfizer and Exxon also up.

Cash Futures up 29pts at 14.00

 

[khafki]

sorry for the deviation but anybody heard of michael hein he is trying to flog a trading system

 

[leovirgo]

NEW YORK (AFX) -- Natural-gas futures hit a new alltime record at $13.45 per
million British thermal units Wednesday after a report said U.S. consumers can
expect higher heating bills this winter. The Natural Gas Supply Association made
the prediction, arguing that shut-in production from Hurricanes Katrina and
Rita, stronger customer demand, higher priced natural gas in storage, and
anticipated economic growth will place upward pressure on natural gas prices.

DOW plunged by 60 pts after the news. Looks like it's started to rain.

 

[Racer]

Fannie Acctg Probes Turn Up New, Pervasive Problems -2-

GAAP Violations Found In Credit Losses

The way Fannie booked its credit losses and certain tax credits have both emerged in recent months as new, and potentially big, problems for the company, according to the people who have been involved with or are close to the investigations.

Historically, Fannie's exceptionally low losses on the mortgages it guaranteed gave the company bragging rights on Wall Street and positioned it as an industry leader in credit-risk management.

The company has, in fact, warned investors that the 2004 numbers it used to calculate its original restatement estimates can no longer be relied upon and that the final tally is subject to change. Fannie also told investors last month that it continues to be plagued by poor internal controls given the "magnitude of material weaknesses that currently exist" and that management is "likely to conclude" that its financial reporting will also be "ineffective" for 2005.

 

[counter_violent]

Historically October is crash month, with the 18th being the low point on average ...followed by a rally up to year end.....This year may be no different .....then again it may deviate from the well worn path .....but on average, this is what you will get.......who says trading is difficult !!

 

[Bigbusiness]

Historically October is crash month, with the 18th being the low point on average ...followed by a rally up to year end.....This year may be no different .....then again it may deviate from the well worn path .....but on average, this is what you will get.......who says trading is difficult !!

Here's a few recent Octobers. Hard to get them on the same scale, so the charts a bit tall. Can't see a lot in the crash theory. Some crash, some don't. Shame I can't plot 2005 now

 

[Racer]

Here's a few recent Octobers. Hard to get them on the same scale, so the charts a bit tall. Can't see a lot in the crash theory. Some crash, some don't. Shame I can't plot 2005 now

Thank you for that chart, looks like a meander about month

It is remembered for 1929 and 1987 crashes really I think

 

[rav700]

Thanks for the charts mate..I do totally agree with you I am just wondering where these bulls are coming from at this time of the year.....Well
Today there are mainly 2 big numbers
Jobless claims which is expected at 436000 instead of 432000
and the GDP expected at 3.3%
I dont really know what to expect from the market at this point but still my views are the bears are just waiting for the thunder storm....

 

[kriesau]

Oil edging up at $66.67 this morning.