Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[kriesau]

What a Roller Coaster Ride - An 80pt drop between 9.45 and 10.45 to 10426 followed by a 85pt rally to 10513 between 10.45 and 11.45.

Currently Adv 18 and Dec 12.
UP: Exxon 3.35%, Alcoa 2.25% and Caterpillar 1.0%
DOWN: GM 4.10%, Big Mac 1.70%, Boeing, IBM, Disney, & Intel all 1%

Oil has slipped just below $69 but Gold is up by nearly $10 !
Consumer spending up 1% in July
Public construction down and personal savings down.
ISM figures down 3pts
Katerina disaster gets worse by the hour

What a mess !
How does anyone make sense of this market ???

 

[Racer]

It is not to be made sense of... it is just computers and people buying and selling numbers

 

[Racer]

)--Chain store sales put in another lackluster performance in August, as high gasoline prices apparently weighed on consumer spending.

 

[Slapshot]

)--Chain store sales put in another lackluster performance in August, as high gasoline prices apparently weighed on consumer spending.

Fuel too expensive to pop down the shops!! LOL!

They should try our fuel prices!

Matters not, I'm sure there's a positive spin in there somewhere.


On the 1min chart theDow is currently stuck in a 30 point channel since 4.45 which is pointing downwards , and hovering on the 100ema.

 

[karmit]

What is coming Karmit?

BIG move down!

 

[kriesau]

BIG move down!

Quote from Charlie Miller this morning

"The bars are up, the closes are up and the %R's have shot upwards through the minus 80 levels. All the makings of a big rally begining ? Ugh, just be careful. All the reasons for a nasty reversal are still here and cold water on this fire should be no surprise.
"Remember, evidence is mounting daily that there could be a BIG crash coming. It still is left as an exercise for the student to think about it some more"

 

[kriesau]

Oil heading back towards $70

 

[boy]

BIG move down!

O.K. Thanks for reply.

 

[Racer]

40p a litre in the US and they are talking about big protests!!

 

[kriesau]

40p a litre in the US and they are talking about big protests!!

Bush met Greenspan yesterday amid rumours that he will ask the Fed to suspend any further rate hikes in the wake of the Katrina disaster.

The PPT has more than one string to their bow Cash Futures up 24pts :!:

 

[Racer]

Bush met Greenspan yesterday amid rumours that he will ask the Fed to suspend any further rate hikes in the wake of the Katrina disaster.

The PPT has more than one string to their bow Cash Futures up 24pts :!:

That is going to solve everything isn't it.. will delay the moment, when they have to do big hikes instead of gradual ones, house bubble will expand rapidly, inflation increase a lot. So will Greenspan co-operate? well he won't mind, he won't be in charge..

 

[kriesau]

That is going to solve everything isn't it.. will delay the moment, when they have to do big hikes instead of gradual ones, house bubble will expand rapidly, inflation increase a lot. So will Greenspan co-operate? well he won't mind, he won't be in charge..

Exactly - any pause in rate hikes won't decrease the price of oil or increase the supply.

I'm not so sure that Greenspan will play ball. The Fed is concerned about the housing bubble and he knows that any pause now will only mean bigger rate hikes later. Even though he won't be around to deal with the consequences he still has his legacy and reputation to consider.

Whether he agrees to pause rate hikes or not, the current speculation that he will could be enough to counter any negative market sentiment.

 

[Racer]

Well the DAX, CAC and FTSE aren't impressed with it or the futures rise.. ah I see they are pulling back now

 

[kriesau]

Boeing down nearly 2% before the bell.
Oil just above $69
Gold up again and is now at $450

 

[Racer]

Challenger: Aug US Job Cuts Down 32% To 70,571

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Job cuts announced by U.S. corporations in August decreased 32% from July to 70,571, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Tuesday.

"August job cuts were dominated by the transportation industry, as turmoil among airlines, cuts in municipal mass transit budgets and soaring fuel prices took a significant toll on these employers," the group said.

The report speculated that the rebuilding effort related to Katrina could boost hiring in coming months.

 

[kriesau]

Challenger: Aug US Job Cuts Down 32% To 70,571

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Job cuts announced by U.S. corporations in August decreased 32% from July to 70,571, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Tuesday.

"August job cuts were dominated by the transportation industry, as turmoil among airlines, cuts in municipal mass transit budgets and soaring fuel prices took a significant toll on these employers," the group said.

The report speculated that the rebuilding effort related to Katrina could boost hiring in coming months.

Bush to release 2m barrels of crude a day from strategic reserve to try and cover shortfall from Gulf of Mexico production..However this won't solve the gasolene shortage since this oil still has to be refined and 9 refineries are out of commission on the Gulf Coast. This means they will have to import more refined gasoline from abroad, in addition to their normal daily requirement of 440,000 barrels, thus adding even further to the trade deficit in coming months.

Another issue for Greenspan to figure out is that if he pauses Fed interest rate hikes it will hit the dollar which has been rising against expectations of these hikes. A weaker dollar will icrease the trade deficit even further on top of the additional oil imports !

 

[kriesau]

Bit of a nothing day with low volume and a 60pt trading range.
Next week should be more interesting when the big hitters get back from the Hamptons.

 

[boy]

Bit of a nothing day with low volume and a 60pt trading range.
Next week should be more interesting when the big hitters get back from the Hamptons.

Hampden or Hamptons, K ??

 

[kriesau]

Hampden or Hamptons, K ??

Hamptons, Long Island, is where they hang out at the end of August.
Don't think that you'll see many Wall St big hitters at Hampden in Glasgow (unless they're fanatical Scottish soccer fans) or up in Maine either at this time of year.

 

[Racer]

'After OPEC shut the faucet in 1973, the market held up for three or four weeks and then collapsed by 19% over the next few weeks.'

Katrina--the Tipping Point?