Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Still an orderly descent, volume remains subdued. Internals have trended steadily lower with the market, but still not excessively bearish on either market, but bearish none the less
 

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It feels like a rally back to positive for the day will happen but as it is Friday, I won't put much on it.
 
Bad bad action here......

Basically 10700 was the top and now its going to be a b***h to get above and 1245 for the S&P is done and dusted and on top of the the real players have taken the positions for the week ahead which should be pretty messy.....

Starting all on Monday 1st of August......

Join us here at T2W, 'Where is the Dow and others heading in 2005' to follow the market action

also

keeping us up to date with the action 'Trading the SPX'

Down is the direction travel with us.........We may not nead seatbelts yet but trust me we need to have them on as we get ready to race and roll towards a 10% decline.........
 
Some fundamental factors to consider;

Other reports showed U.S. Midwest manufacturing gathered momentum in July while consumer sentiment brightened slightly. Wages and salaries -- regarded as a potential strong influence on inflation -- increased at a modest pace.

The strong second-quarter GDP performance followed a 3.8 percent growth rate in the first quarter and reflected well-balanced strength in consumer spending, business investment and exports

The Employment Cost Index is a broad measure of what employers pay in wages and benefits. The second-quarter data showed pay increased 0.6 percent in the April-June period, matching the gain recorded in the January-March quarter.

Analysts said the employment costs data was encouraging, since it did not point to hefty wage demands that can foster inflation. Over a 12-month period ending June 30, wages and salaries have grown just 2.4 percent.

Companies drew down inventories at a $6.4 billion annual rate during the second quarter -- the first time they reduced stocks since the second quarter of 2003. Carmakers restrained production while dealers used sales incentives to clear their lots of unsold goods, clearing the way for stronger production in coming months.

Therefore, one of the two biggest "costs" wages, are increasing only moderately and operating margins should be maintained, if not increased dependant upon the industries reliance on raw materials, and particularly oil Those that are heavily reliant, will suffer, dependant on how well they have hedged.

All in all, the charts are showing a consolidation pattern through a range of about 1000pts on the DJI.

This is simply a correction through time, rather than price The eventual direction will be bullish.

Cheers d998
 
Ducatti, i somewhat agree with your bullish longterm outlook. It makes sense. But for short to mid.....down! RUDEBOY.

Ducatti, would you agree that the markets have 'struggled' to thier latest levels in the past 2 years?

Volume has increased quite dramatically though!

RT, maybe your predictions are extreme, but, plausible.
 
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Hi Everyone,

Well I'm going to stick my head above the parapet and say that Fridays fall, isn't part of the big sell that we've been waiting for and we're heading for more upward movement ahead. We could still see a downside to the current level of support around 10,560. But from there it will bounce up again to hit 10,700 again and perhaps higher.

Yes I know what I was saying earlier in the week, and the setup looked as if it was going to happen, but then Friday's action cancelled the setup I was looking for. It gave an indication towards more upward movement ahead, which is surprising, but not out of the question. The RSI is on the lower edge of an upper trading range and there could be more upward movement in the Stochastic. I would suggest that we may be looking at another couple of days or perhaps longer - there is also a chance of more consolidation at this level with an upward slant on it - similar to that in May.

At the moment I can't really say more than that. All I know is, that the setup I was looking for, didn't happen on Friday. I will have to wait and see what transpires on Monday for further information, but if I had to say anything it would be that this isn't the big sell off.

Gulp! That could just be my reputation gone! :rolleyes:
 
Hello, Jill. Well, there is one thing to say, you and User got the measure of last week......well done. I personally think there may be more upside at the moment. But.....i'm going to leave the 630 position and add at a later date. All the best, RUDEBOY.
 
Thanks Rude,

I know you do not give praise readily. So coming from you, that means a lot.

I have an order set for 10,700, which I really think will get filled as I can see it hitting this level again. 10,800 could be a possibility too.

Get ready to add to those shorts, because when she goes, it's going to be like the Pepsi Max at Blackpool - downhill all the way! :cheesy:
 
DirtyB previously quoted
Get ready to add to those shorts, because when she goes, it's going to be like the Pepsi Max at Blackpool - downhill all the way!

That sounds like a prediction to me DirtyB and we all know that real traders are not in the business of predicting the market.

Maybe redheads have got a jump on the market though.
 
Do any of you believe in the concept of 'never out'? I.E. scale in and out of your positions? RUDEBOY.
 
If i said....."I have only a few long left in at the moment....". What would you think? RUDEBOY.
 
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