Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

I have live Dow prices

btw if you look at yahoo for the individual share you can get a live quote

IBM now down 1.13%

or try www.freerealtime.com

 

[roguetrader]

SOX may be stabalizing here, would continue to watch it though, has numerous support levels from an intraday perspective, but first major aupport (potential) could be aas low as 453

 

[kriesau]

SOX may be stabalizing here, would continue to watch it though, has numerous support levels from an intraday perspective, but first major aupport (potential) could be aas low as 453

Interesting detachment of the NDX from the SOXX. When the SOXX fell by 2.3% earlier the NDX only fell by 0.3% (8 pts). SOXX has retraced 0.5% but NDX has erased initial fall and just hit a daily high.

 

[roguetrader]

Internets providing the Nasdaq with some strength off the back of AMZN up 12% offsetting the damage done by the SOX.
SOX bounce may be done

 

[User]

Messy Session!

So far we have potential for both directions.

Neverthless we have more award for downside positions......as gains in my opinion are limited.

However as mentioned before we have a tendancy to move higher in the last days of July. 70% chance of ending the week higher then the previous......

Another stat gives us an 83% chance of ending higher by Friday.....

That is if the S&P has four straight higher weekly closes then if the S&P can trade at the 'last weeks' high 'this week' then we have a 83% chance of ending above that level by the end of the week.

Market currently flat but upside is not over......and downside should begin next week in rude fashion.......

Good Luck

 

[Racer]

Lots of big buys on the order book lower down, unusually large some of them, hmmm, but still lots of selling pressure so if they break it will go very very fast I think. Will they be able to hold the fort for the bulls?

 

[JillyB]

Messy Session!

So far we have potential for both directions.

Neverthless we have more award for downside positions......as gains in my opinion are limited.

However as mentioned before we have a tendancy to move higher in the last days of July. 70% chance of ending the week higher then the previous......

Another stat gives us an 83% chance of ending higher by Friday.....

That is if the S&P has four straight higher weekly closes then if the S&P can trade at the 'last weeks' high 'this week' then we have a 83% chance of ending above that level by the end of the week.

Market currently flat but upside is not over......and downside should begin next week in rude fashion.......

Good Luck

Hmm.... that would mean around 10,660 by the end of the week. Which is what I've been thinking as well. The system I use still hasn't generated a sell signal, but I can see one occuring if we top 10,650 this week.

From then on - down we go. 10,380 seems a likely target for me at the moment and one which I will be aiming for initially.

As you say - Good Luck!

 

[User]

Hmm.... that would mean around 10,660 by the end of the week. Which is what I've been thinking as well. The system I use still hasn't generated a sell signal, but I can see one occuring if we top 10,650 this week.

From then on - down we go. 10,380 seems a likely target for me at the moment and one which I will be aiming for initially.

A scenario which is likely to occur......

10380 no problem

9800 likely in my opinion.......

 

[JillyB]

A scenario which is likely to occur......

10380 no problem

9800 likely in my opinion.......

I agree, but I would like to see the strength of the fall first. As I said 10,380 is my initial target and I will likely take some profits out at this stage, leaving a smaller trade on to complete any remaining fall.

(I like to play safe!)

 

[roguetrader]

Market internals not that bad on the NYSE, more neutral to slight bearish bias and off the worst levels. Nasdaq modestly bearish and holding the lows.
Total market volume slightly ahead of yesterdays pace on the Nasdaq. NYSE about even

 

[houdani]

Hmm.... that would mean around 10,660 by the end of the week. Which is what I've been thinking as well. The system I use still hasn't generated a sell signal, but I can see one occuring if we top 10,650 this week.

From then on - down we go. 10,380 seems a likely target for me at the moment and one which I will be aiming for initially.

As you say - Good Luck!

hi jill, just out of interest,what system are you using for the dow?

 

[Racer]

BA has lost a lot of its gains. only up 0.65% now

 

[JillyB]

hi jill, just out of interest,what system are you using for the dow?

My own one

Handcrafted by moi!

 

[houdani]

My own one

Handcrafted by moi!

the only reason i ask is, i started trading about a year ago,and when looking at the dow ive strictly been using support/resistance lines and fibb retracements. since viewing these boards i can see a lot of people doing a lot more things,any good pointers as far as position trading? any feedback greatly appreciated.

 

[JillyB]

the only reason i ask is, i started trading about a year ago,and when looking at the dow ive strictly been using support/resistance lines and fibb retracements. since viewing these boards i can see a lot of people doing a lot more things,any good pointers as far as position trading? any feedback greatly appreciated.

In that case, you've been trading longer than me! So perhaps I should be the one asking for advice....

My system is based on adjusted bollingers - 2 of them and the H+L+O+C/4 price. I confirm it using support and resistance lines.

In backtesting over the last 5 years it has shown good profits as long as trailing stops are used once the movement starts.

Since the system has generated a sell signal yet - I'm still sitting on the fence and waiting. 10,660 is looking good for it. The reputation of my system will depend on it!!!!

 

[houdani]

In that case, you've been trading longer than me! So perhaps I should be the one asking for advice....

My system is based on adjusted bollingers - 2 of them and the H+L+O+C/4 price. I confirm it using support and resistance lines.

In backtesting over the last 5 years it has shown good profits as long as trailing stops are used once the movement starts.

Since the system has generated a sell signal yet - I'm still sitting on the fence and waiting. 10,660 is looking good for it. The reputation of my system will depend on it!!!!

first of all although ive been trading a year its been a slow learning curve as i have a full time job, (slow and painful) sometimes so you definetly wouldnt want my advice unless you`re a serial sadist :cheesy: but thanks for the thought, i havent had much use for bollinger bands up until now, its something im going to have a look at.

 

[JillyB]

first of all although ive been trading a year its been a slow learning curve as i have a full time job, (slow and painful) sometimes so you definetly wouldnt want my advice unless you`re a serial sadist :cheesy: but thanks for the thought, i havent had much use for bollinger bands up until now, its something im going to have a look at.

I have a full time job too, so my learning curve has been slow as well. Only got interested in trading last October - but I thoroughly enjoy it - apart from the losing trade bit! so I try to make those as few and far between as possible. :cheesy:

 

[frugi]

Possible price targets and levels which may or may not be useful...

The Dow really is lagging her sisters. If they break out up she might rush to catch up, but I don't think that's likely; instead, she'll probably drag them back down. The tops of those rising wedges may be an important decision point, if we get there. I'd view the lagging as a warning and call for a top this week, if I was a betting man.

2238 marked on Naz chart is a measured move target.

 

[frugi]

Fib timing projection on SOX for today or tomorrow...

 

[JillyB]

I think it will touch 10,700 today that will possibly be about the highest level. My short trade will activate at this point and I will be quite happy to sit with it and wait for it to start falling.