Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

I know what you by inverted!

My story is basically a close aroung 10800, slightly higher or lower. Then a solid down move tomarrow. But I'm not good at telling stories so who knows!
 
I shorted oil at $55, so not a bad day 'so far'.

'So far' being the key words of course! 😉
 
Oh well, that's me done for the day... stopped out at 10830.
+25 on the day - better that a kick in the teeth as they say.
 
Preacher-Man said:
Yep, back down I reckon... there's too much downside momentum to pull back much.
Click to expand...

Famous last words...!!! Stopped out shortly after saying this and an hour later we're 40 points higher! Live and learn (hopefully!)
 
Just closed my oil trade.....+129points. That was quick n easy stuff. +179 including the Dow trade. Only if everyday was like this!..... Market rising as oil gives back most of the days gains. See FC Nasdaq coming back aswell because of oil!

What now? Not sure but I think we'll get the close above 10800 but should be under 10850.

Good luck
 
Yesterday:-
whipsaw...... whipsaw.........
Click to expand...

More of the same today, and holding any position, long or short for too long, can see a good profit turn into a loss as the market is zigzagging and rangebound waiting for a catalyst which could be coming tomorrow in the form of the NF payrolls data at 13.30gmt…

Oil appears to have backed off the key $55 resistance level and the market may soon start discounting a fall in demand as spring approaches….

Decent Jobs/ISM/Productivity numbers today, and we may close in the green yet, but some traders are going to prefer the sidelines ahead of the payrolls data imho..

It’s all down to the payrolls….. 😕
 
Agreed.

Should provide direction in the form of a breakout to the upside or a possible confirmation of a triple top which would lead us to the downside.

Hopefully it doesn't provide a flat day tommarrow which would be the worst of all scenario's!
 
just been looking at the longer term charts..


HUMUNGOUS triangle forming with the mouth at 9500.. now assuming an upper limit of 10900 give or take.. thats a 1400 point potential if 10900 goes..

and if the all time high is take out....
 
FC would you kind enough to post the chart with or without your analysis.
 
FetteredChinos said:
just been looking at the longer term charts..


HUMUNGOUS triangle forming with the mouth at 9500.. now assuming an upper limit of 10900 give or take.. thats a 1400 point potential if 10900 goes..

and if the all time high is take out....
Click to expand...


FC

Have you got the chart as I would love to see it

Orky
 
My interpretation in principle of what FC has noted….

Taking the 1225 height of the ascending triangle from the start of the bull run from the October lows to current levels at 10875 max, may imply a 12100 potential target assuming a break to the upside…..

(ignore the other graffiti from past targets......(that have been met..... 😉 ))
 

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Your spot on with your forecast of where the Dow could go if this triangle was one of text book nature.

I see you have measured the mouth of the triangle and then measured that distance from the top of the triangle to end up with 12100. That’s great, exactly how 'Pring' would obtain a figure of where the potential could take us.

I will say I'm in agreement with the analysis. However I don't think we will hit that level or even reach close to that level. I believe a top is in place very soon it could be above 11,000 but not near the 12,000 mark. If this triangle were to occur then it would obviously have to close above the highs of Dec so that it clearly shows up on the daily chart. Otherwise a failure of this triangle could validate a Triple top and of course if the Triple top starts to form and then we go up again for a fourth time then we can safely say we are in Whipsaw. Whipsaw of this nature would normally be bearish

Dow theory also believes a top is imminent soon.

Tim Wood:
'My long term forecast suggests that the Dow should approach the 3000 range as the 4-year cycle bottoms in either 2006 or 2010'!

That’s all the scenario's now lets see what happens.

Good analysis FC, TS.

It’s all interesting stuff; just make sure you’re on the sidelines waiting to act!

A lot of traders believe tomorrow could be a catalyst for the next move.

Good Luck all.
 
Last edited:
I never trade Dow on Thursdays as I think the Big Institutions move market about for position buying on Fridays
I think Dow may test 10,862 resistance on Friday and if broken may close at a consolidation stage at 10,891 if it cannot break and close above 10,862 soon we may see a fall in stages to 10,633 this is not trading advice
I only move with the market and take profits from the moves as they come if I can
I think the Dow is ranging at the moment and may break up or down when sentiment is stronger
all the very best of luck with your trading on the Dow to you all
 
i follow this thread on a regular basis, i dont know much about trading the dow, ive only been looking into it for the past 3 weeks.. personally i am bearish based on reading a range of different literature.

from what i gather oil price drives the markets, its price can have a significant effect on the price of the DOW. what i was wondering today is oil is near its all time high and the market seems to be very bullish, any signs of decrease in oil prices causes the DOW to rally, now what happens to the DOW if oil decreased to say $40 pb? wouldnt that mean the DOW would continue to be bullish. just a thought anyway. i apologise in advanced for any misjudgement
 
Destiny, it doesn't always work like that as if you look at when oil hit its new time highs in october the Dow Jones was valued at 10,000 and now oil reachs similar level and the Dow is at 10800.

So yes it can react to oil but the markets have other factors to consider aswell. If oil was to start falling then yes the markets could rise however it may be that the market has other bad news to deal which is what makes the market.

No apologies needed. If you have any further questions do not hesitate to ask.

Good Luck
 
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