Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

do you think they will announce the word 'very' this time just before close? LOL
 
What movement was that - Bloomberg showing oil at $56.50 a couple of minutes ago.
Fed 25 basis pts raise accompanied by the same measured pace language as before. Initial markets reaction seems still uncertain
 
kriesau said:
What movement was that - Bloomberg showing oil at $56.50 a couple of minutes ago.
Fed 25 basis pts raise accompanied by the same measured pace language as before. Initial markets reaction seems still uncertain
Click to expand...

Saw a news headline about it, wasn't watching the price itself... said oil fell 2% in 40mins just before 19:00 UK

Unanimous vote to increase rate
 
Racer said:
do you think they will announce the word 'very' this time just before close? LOL
Click to expand...


Less than 10mins to go... do you think they have forgotten that they forgot?
 
Well that was an active afternoon after all, nice moves. Not looking too hot for the bulls going into the next quarter.
 
roguetrader said:
Well that was an active afternoon after all, nice moves. Not looking too hot for the bulls going into the next quarter.
Click to expand...
What is particularly interesting is that the FOMC announcement was entirely as expected by the market with no negative connotations compared with their previous statements. Also oil has fallen by virtually $4 since the begining of the week.

On the other hand the drop of nearly 1% today was not matched by the COMPX at 0.6%, the SPX at 0.7%, the BKX at 0.4% or the SOXX at 0.55%.
 
RogueTrader,

I know what User and Fettered Chinos can deduce from their charts and what they view the short term market trend as but I would like you to tell me what your opinion is and why. If you choose not to for any reason I will understand and accept.

Kriesau,

Oil at $60, $58, $55 or even $50 does not make any difference, it is too high and whilst people might deceive themselves and say that it has already been priced in to the stock markets, you know it has not. We only have to look at the bond market to see that.
 
LION63 said:
RogueTrader,

I know what User and Fettered Chinos can deduce from their charts and what they view the short term market trend as but I would like you to tell me what your opinion is and why. If you choose not to for any reason I will understand and accept.

Kriesau,

Oil at $60, $58, $55 or even $50 does not make any difference, it is too high and whilst people might deceive themselves and say that it has already been priced in to the stock markets, you know it has not. We only have to look at the bond market to see that.
Click to expand...
On the fundamentals front the point that I was making was that there was no bad or unexpected news today and my reference to the spot price of oil was made in that context.
 
Kriesau,

It might have across as a criticism but it certainly was not meant in that way. What I am saying is that oil goes up a few cents, the lumps bail out, it goes down a Dollar and they pile in as if they are about to miss out on a meteroic rise in the markets but it does not matter anyway because the damage is done at $50 and any figure above that just increases the pain.
 
I added a position at 10398 and went out at 10310. Then I went to play football for an hour. Just looked at the action now and well, nice to see the Dow ended near the lows.....

I'm still holding my other massive position including the 'live trade that was posted on here (the 200 point stoploss trade).....

10250 play tomorrow......will it snap or will it lead to a little bounce again.....odds favour an up day tomorrow......

Over the last 27 Fed meetings if the S&P declines on the day of announcement then a rise the next day can be seen.....

That stat is true 85% of the time:

Do your want the results?

Here they are:

FOMC Announcements & Down Days in the S&P500
05/03/05 Down day... S&P up next day
03/22/05 Down day... S&P up next day
11/10/04 Down day... S&P up next day
01/28/04 Down day... S&P up next day
12/09/03 Down day... S&P down next day
06/25/03 Down day... S&P up next day
09/24/02 Down day... S&P up next day
08/13/02 Down day... S&P up next day
06/26/02 Down day... S&P up next day
05/07/02 Down day... S&P up next day
12/11/01 Down day... S&P up next day
08/21/01 Down day... S&P up next day
06/27/01 Down day... S&P up next day
03/20/01 Down day... S&P down next day
01/31/01 Down day... S&P up next day
12/19/00 Down day... S&P down next day
10/03/00 Down day... S&P up next day
08/22/00 Down day... S&P up next day
02/02/00 Down day... S&P up next day
10/05/99 Down day... S&P up next day
05/18/99 Down day... S&P up next day
03/30/99 Down day... S&P down next day
11/12/97 Down day... S&P up next day
09/30/97 Down day... S&P up next day
03/25/97 Down day... S&P up next day
02/05/97 Down day... S&P up next day
09/24/96 Down day... S&P up next day

So a quick one day buy looks good. But I'm not getting rid of my big position as these up days and down days are just little movements and I'm in for the big action.......10000.

85% looks good over 15% but anything could happen. However alot of traders make money from past stats......
 
user said:
Over the last 27 Fed meetings if the S&P declines on the day of announcement then a rise the next day can be seen.....

That stat is true 85% of the time:

Do your want the results?

Here they are:

FOMC Announcements & Down Days in the S&P500
05/03/05 Down day... S&P up next day
03/22/05 Down day... S&P up next day
11/10/04 Down day... S&P up next day
01/28/04 Down day... S&P up next day
12/09/03 Down day... S&P down next day
06/25/03 Down day... S&P up next day
09/24/02 Down day... S&P up next day
08/13/02 Down day... S&P up next day
06/26/02 Down day... S&P up next day
05/07/02 Down day... S&P up next day
12/11/01 Down day... S&P up next day
08/21/01 Down day... S&P up next day
06/27/01 Down day... S&P up next day
03/20/01 Down day... S&P down next day
01/31/01 Down day... S&P up next day
12/19/00 Down day... S&P down next day
10/03/00 Down day... S&P up next day
08/22/00 Down day... S&P up next day
02/02/00 Down day... S&P up next day
10/05/99 Down day... S&P up next day
05/18/99 Down day... S&P up next day
03/30/99 Down day... S&P down next day
11/12/97 Down day... S&P up next day
09/30/97 Down day... S&P up next day
03/25/97 Down day... S&P up next day
02/05/97 Down day... S&P up next day
09/24/96 Down day... S&P up next day

So a quick one day buy looks good. But I'm not getting rid of my big position as these up days and down days are just little movements and I'm in for the big action.......10000.

85% looks good over 15% but anything could happen. However alot of traders make money from past stats......
Click to expand...

Trouble with statistical studies is that they have to be exposed to the same envoironment or influences in order to draw any meaningful conclusions.
For example in how many of those cases was the next day either the first day of a new quarter or the day before a holiday weekend?
 
kriesau said:
What is particularly interesting is that the FOMC announcement was entirely as expected by the market with no negative connotations compared with their previous statements. Also oil has fallen by virtually $4 since the begining of the week.

On the other hand the drop of nearly 1% today was not matched by the COMPX at 0.6%, the SPX at 0.7%, the BKX at 0.4% or the SOXX at 0.55%.
Click to expand...

The disparity between the SPX / COMPQ and INDU is nothing new, throughout the rally the INDU was the laggard, and as such was due to fall the hardest when things turned down.
As for oil, the market has largely ignored oil for the past few months now,oh I know it gets the blame for a selloff and the praise for a rally from time to time, but there has been no enduring correlation, just one of convenience from time to time.
 
Jobs tend to go down in July so that should be interesting as to how they estimate and comment on the figures this month (it is after midnight! :) )
Jobs data
 
LION63 said:
RogueTrader,

I know what User and Fettered Chinos can deduce from their charts and what they view the short term market trend as but I would like you to tell me what your opinion is and why. If you choose not to for any reason I will understand and accept.
Click to expand...
Lion, let me get back to you at the weekend on that one as it is late and I have a busy morning ahead. I will do a rundown on my view of the three main indices and the SOX.
 
10250 play tomorrow......will it snap or will it lead to a little bounce again.....odds favour an up day tomorrow......

Over the last 27 Fed meetings if the S&P declines on the day of announcement then a rise the next day can be seen.....

That stat is true 85% of the time:


85% looks good over 15% but anything could happen. However alot of traders make money from past stats......[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the stats. Did you have to put these together yourself or do you have a website that provides stock market stats. If so could you post the address it would be much appreciated.
 
I have done some stats for the first trading day of July in the past 10 years. The Dow has risen on 8 of these 10 years. However the last 3 years have seen 2 falls of 101 points in 2004 and 133 points in 2002 (was in a very strong downtrend). The average rise of the 8 UP days is 76 points.

Is relatively low volume and a smallish move expected today because of the holiday weekend or will more traders stay on because of the rate decision and possibility of further falls to come? I think the market will be very shaky after the negative comments from the FOMC.
 
I cashed out of my shorts at 5.00am UK time. Couldn't resist the gains. I know I was saying I'll hold out for 10,000 but I took everything of the table. Then I went Long on the S&P at 1192....

I just got up now.......nice to see the futures up......

This is a short term long and I'll be looking to re-enter shorts hopefully at higher levels to where I've got out.....

10250 is a support level as we saw earliar in the week....will it get tested today? doesn't seem like it at the moment.....

I looked good and hard at the 85% stat and its not a bad number.......even though I was having doubts in my head as to if the Dow gains 1 point that would stand as a gain.....However I decided to jump in long.......but I'm still a bear....... I think :devilish:
 
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