Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[kriesau]

Good news for the Bulls

Technically the week ahead is known to be fairly bullish. Last week's sell off turned most of the indicators downward and alleviated the overbought condition the market had been in for a while.

Good news for the Bears

The trend is now down on the daily charts and the weekly charts. The Dow has shown great resistance in my stated area of 10600-50 on the weekly charts. The S&P has topped at 1220. The Nasdaq has shown great problems at 2100. The indicators are now down. The VIX hasn't really moved up much and is still at dangerous low levels. The furious down moves shown over the past two sessions basically mean that a continuation is expected or at best upward action will be difficult......

Overall translation

Stats show that next week is 'generally' bullish. However that is not 100%. The downward moves seen over the past few days should be continued. However if we see the Dow gain this week by 1 point then the stats of this week being a bullish one would still be valid. So limited upside is expected if any but follow the trend which is your friend. The S&P500 when closing the week at around 1190 on the weekly chart basically means the following week then does closer even lower. That is true when as far as this year is concerned.

Good luck.......Should be interesting...

User,

I went short on the SPX at 1200 on Friday (already short on the Dow from Thursday) so I would be interested in what your chart interpretation is on this Index. I'm looking at a target of around 1145 - 1150.

 

[Racer]

User,

I went short on the SPX at 1200 on Friday (already short on the Dow from Thursday) so I would be interested in what your chart interpretation is on this Index. I'm looking at a target of around 1145 - 1150.

Just a little bearish then eh?

 

[User]

Just a little bearish then eh?

Just a little....

User,

I went short on the SPX at 1200 on Friday (already short on the Dow from Thursday) so I would be interested in what your chart interpretation is on this Index. I'm looking at a target of around 1145 - 1150.

I'll post a few charts later (hopefully)

 

[Racer]

New federal housing data show that the nation's most overheated local housing markets now make up such a large share of the total U.S. market that a sharp fall in their values could stall or slow national economic growth.

The 22 major metropolitan markets with the fastest-growing house prices account for 35% of the value of the nation's residential real estate, but just a fifth of its population, says the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

rest of article

 

[rustic1]

Good post user

 

[kriesau]

Just a little bearish then eh?

Well.........just a bit :cheesy:

Are you still short on the Dow September contract ?

 

[kriesau]

I'll post a few charts later (hopefully)

Cheers....look forward to seeing them

 

[Racer]

Well.........just a bit :cheesy:

Are you still short on the Dow September contract ?

Yes of course and have added to it over the last few weeks

 

[User]

Good post user

Cheers Rustic

Having some problems posting charts. I've got some major techinical problems on my laptop. I'll have to post the charts from my pc or my other laptop tomorrow.

Kind Regards
User

 

[User]

I've managed to get my Dow chart Analysis and forecast attached to this post. So have a look.....

I'll try to post some more charts later.....

 

[rrtech]

I've managed to get my Dow chart Analysis and forecast attached to this post. So have a look.....

I'll try to post some more charts later.....

This seems like good analysis to me and if you add the saying sell in may and go away and the high oil prices as well, it looks even better.

What about the top of the double bottom, could this act as temporary support? I ask this because it is just below friday's close on the chart.

 

[User]

What about the top of the double bottom, could this act as temporary support? I ask this because it is just below friday's close on the chart.

Yes it could and that number is around 10250. On the weekly charts the next support could be at 10050-10000.

Alot of investors are expecting a bounce today and this week. Why am I so skeptical about this weeks bullish stat? Why am I prepared to keep my shorts and sit with them even if the market rises a little this week? Well, we all know that when the expectation of something is high this normally gives a sign of caution. Prime recent example......our lovely breakout fakeout.......expectation high.....volume low......flop......!

Should be an interesting week...

 

[Pat494]

General opinion here is bearish
but dare I say there may be a bit of a bounce if there are no nasty shocks (oil ?)

 

[karmit]

closed out all my shorts last friday.... will be ready for another short though - if it doesn't cross 10360 today....

 

[kriesau]

The Fed meets to review the interest rate tomorrow & Wednesday. Anyone know which day and what time an announcement is due ?

 

[Racer]

The Fed meets to review the interest rate tomorrow & Wednesday. Anyone know which day and what time an announcement is due ?

19:15 UK Thurs

Calendar

 

[Racer]

Now we can see how far the cat bounces, oil still going up, but I don't think that was the real reason for the fall last week, just an excuse

 

[roguetrader]

Now we can see how far the cat bounces, oil still going up, but I don't think that was the real reason for the fall last week, just an excuse

I would tend to agree with that Racer.
On the topic of Fridays volume, I have just noticed that Fraday was Russel small cap rebalancing, a once yearly event where weak small caps are removed from the index and strong ones are added. The funds tracking this index are then forced to rebalance their accounts before the close which usually results in a sharp spike in volume late in the day, as such volume may have been a little mis-leading. Just something to be aware of.

 

[roguetrader]

Not much going on in early going. Internals suggesting watchout the bear is still about.

SOX moving below 200 week sma, currently at 424

 

[JillyB]

Well, it seems we got the bounce up I mentioned in the posts over the weekend. I don't see this going any higher than the 10350 - 360 range and then falling back again to around the 10250 level. This would then complete the 5 stages of the Elliot wave downwards. (posted here and on Trading the SPX).

IMHO the test of the 10250 level will be crucial to maintaining or breaking the longer term upward trend. We shall wait and see on this.