Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[hariab]

quick question for everyone (including people that view this board and not post...get ur virgin post in now!!!).... how many CFD's or pound per points(spreadbet), do you lot take up on average. And to what proportion of your total equity does that come in????

(dont want to be cheeky enough to ask how much equity everyones got in their accounts!!!! Also, im a strong believer of withdrawing funds from your trading account and sticking the money into high income stocks or high interest bank account!!)

 

[kriesau]

Oil still at $56.40. US inventories reported down today. This is an encroaching problem which is being exacerbated by limited Refinery capacity. Oil prices are likely to keep increasing over the summertime and this will impact inflation.

 

[hariab]

no need for the brokers to make more money of us then they already do ey...............

sppose i'll start.... average CFD position 180 ......... which equals to roughly 100 GBP a point. That is roughly 20% of total equity

 

[FetteredChinos]

no need for the brokers to make more money of us then they already do ey...............

sppose i'll start.... average CFD position 180 ......... which equals to roughly 100 GBP a point. That is roughly 20% of total equity

dont you think you are taking on just a weeee bit too much risk there?

i only trade £5 a point FTSE (when trading multiple positions ) and £5 on FX, and this on a £20k account..

FC

 

[roguetrader]

Internals still not really that bad, could go any way this afternoon.
Total volume holding steady.
SOX seems to have found her footing

 

[RUDEBOY]

That was on my first account epitaph....."Here lies the trader RUDEBOY. The 20%er, and some!"

 

[peterpr]

For over two hours we have been travelling in a 20 point range.....
A breakout is needed.....
A test of 10450 before the session ends seems likely....

Having double bottomed at 10527 (YM) and at close to the lower boundary of the 5 day ATR band; and bearing in mind the propensity to high intra-day volatility but small O/C ranges in the run up to options expiry, I think it likely we will get a bounce in the pm session.

However, I'm done for the day so I'll start taking an interest again tomorrow

 

[roguetrader]

Nice little afernoon pop,indices almost back to yesterdays close.
Internals moved into positive teritory on NYSE, Nasdaq still slightly negative.
Total NYSE volume still slightly ahead of yesterdays pace, Nasdaq volume firmly ahead

 

[JillyB]

sppose i'll start.... average CFD position 180 ......... which equals to roughly 100 GBP a point. That is roughly 20% of total equity

EEEk!!!! That's frightening stuff, Hariab. I never risk more than 2% of my equity in any one trade. I want to live to fight /trade another day.

What happens if it all goes wrong?

 

[hariab]

hey jill
i agree it can look frightening on paper... but im not a trend setter, so i dont buy positions ahead of news in anticipation, and i use strict stop losses. I have been caught out, once big time..... and like they say, you learn from your mistakes... however overall i cant complain.

 

[JillyB]

hey jill
i agree it can look frightening on paper... but im not a trend setter, so i dont buy positions ahead of news in anticipation, and i use strict stop losses. I have been caught out, once big time..... and like they say, you learn from your mistakes... however overall i cant complain.

If it works for you then........ Good trading!!!!

Think I will stick with my small value trades for the time being. Call me a wussy, if you want.... I don't mind

 

[hariab]

i dont think ur a wuss jill.... most likely a lot more screwed on then me!!!

 

[RUDEBOY]

Hariab, easy tiger!

 

[bakula]

Ah well! u know those "ellipse" indicators i was on about yesterday? well, they turned out to be right! Dow did go south...however, one BIG mistake...i bought slightly lower than i should have....not south enough for me to bank on that trade....however, on the plus side...i only lost a tiny little bit ....phew! it was close!

 

[hariab]

anyone think there is any significance of dow closing above 10560.... highest close in around 2.5 months?? Does it really matter with the triple witch Friday?

 

[Minder]

I expect we will get a similar pattern early today as yesterday. No room overhead, maybe a push up to resistance at 10600 on the futures, depending on the Housing Starts and Jobless Claims at 1:30 GMT. Downhill from there, 10500 ? and then the pattern has been to recover all the intraday losses and add a small gain.

I can't see 10600 being broken before options expiry on Friday. Sell orders in at 10591 with stops at 10615.

Any thoughts ?

 

[peterpr]

The encroaching "problem" is a good sign is it not? Surely demand for commodities as basic as this is a sign of a booming set of economies not a shrinkage in production? How significantly if at all, can be proven that there's a shrinkage in production? Probably not much!

This isn't the thread (or board) to be discussing 'Peak Oil' but, since you raise the subject , here goes anyway. Just an hour or two of honest research on those two words (a google search will turn up quite a bit) should convince any intelligent, open-minded person that our comfortable assumptions about perpetual growth are heading for the buffers big time. The consensus among an overwhelming majority of petoleum geologists outside the confines of official Company and Government circles (where raising the subject at all is treated like throwing a stink bomb at a dinner party) is that peak oil production was/will be somewhere between 2003 - 2009. That's slowly declining production -v- ever increasing demand. So what does that tell you about the prospects for the price of a barrel of crude? This is how Kenneth Deffeyes puts it in his Book 'Hubbert's Peak' ;

"This much is certain: No initiative put in place today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on line at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil. At least lets hope that the war is waged with cash instead of with nuclear warheads".

The most puzzling thing in fact is the stance of political establishments the world over. They simply won't talk about it. It's off the agenda. Now I wonder why that is? Titanics and icebergs spring to mind - its simple unthinkable, so let's divert everyone's attention to things like global warming and world poverty instead so the party can continue.

That's not to say that the present week on week or even month on month oil price won't continue to be subject to serious tradeable fluctuations, but the era of cheap oil (or any other energy source for that matter) is dead. Welcome to the post-industrial revolution guys.

 

[kriesau]

The encroaching "problem" is a good sign is it not? Surely demand for commodities as basic as this is a sign of a booming set of economies not a shrinkage in production? How significantly if at all, can be proven that there's a shrinkage in production? Probably not much!

That oil went to 56US and yet equities stayed in their recent range, is open to interpretation, but I am humoured by the clamour of how when equities go down oil gets the nod as a blame.

Look at the crude charts for the last two weeks and note how the prices went down significantly yet equities didnt boom upwards and the medias chose to quietly overlook this. Now that the crude price has moved back up the media has your attention on something that is basically bogus.

Take a look at crude for the last decade and see how no one mentioned its action when at 20/bbl or 30 or 35 or ... until the equities went for a dive in Jan/Mar 2000 .....then suddenly....... "Oh, hey, look at the wild price of crude guys".



Fear on the smell of an oily rag

Joules - I think that oil has a negative effect on the market in the short term because of its impact upon inflation. The impact of any price surge also has to be viewed against other relevant economic factors on any individual day or week. Where little else is happening then it can have a more significant impact in its own right.

In a broader context oil is a bit like blood. Everyone takes it for granted until there is either a shortage or it becomes expensive. There is a finite supply of oil and, with the expanding Asian economies inflating demand, it is becoming more of a negative issue for the general economic health and wealth of the developed economies.

Still at $55.50 this morning.

 

[Pat494]

Oil

Just to add my pennyworth on the oil situation.
There are various websites that claim with about £100 "add-on" one can run one's diesel car on vegetable oil !! Vegetable oil at my local Tesco is about 40p a litre and it burns clean.
Sounds good to me and for the farmers. So I wrote to all 3 political parties. Guess what. After a considerable delay 3 brush-offs. Well I did try.

 

[roguetrader]

Just to add my pennyworth on the oil situation.
There are various websites that claim with about £100 "add-on" one can run one's diesel car on vegetable oil !! .

It's been done Pat, now I can't validate the cost of conversion, but circa 1997 Reading buses were running a bus on vegetable oil, smelt like a chip shop when it went past There are plenty of alternate sources of energy available at varying cost. That is one reson in my opinion governments are not that worried, they know if they have to the stuff is there, and when the cost of oil is unjustifiable then they will foster the implimentation of such. At the moment however the intertwining of oil companies and governments, coupled with the acceptd tax revenue from oil suits them