Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[FetteredChinos]

not sure.. depends where we are then..


this might help...


http://admin.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=819&Itemid=46

mainly for FX, but someone has taken up far too much of their free time analysing this..

reckon we might get 10,150 pre market today on dodgy data, followed by a climb as the market realises that rates arent going up in the immediate term..

 

[Pat494]

Teflon man and Prudence now on live.
His wriggle room gets ever smaller but never seems to worry him

 

[FetteredChinos]

His wriggle room gets ever smaller but never seems to worry him

ive got one of those.. it is nicely padded, and wipe-clean...

 

[Pat494]

Morning all another happy day hopefully
FC
still trying to work out your avatar, is it a bottle of Shampers in bucket ?
BTW where is Fraggle rock from ?

I go for a sideways oscillating day

Just been listening to a French gent on Bloomberg saying the US recovery in 2004 was based on tax cuts and consumer spending !!!

 

[FetteredChinos]

well its always good to know what happened last year eh?

my Avatar is Russ Abbott dressed as Batman for a christmas special a few years ago now.

Fraggle rock is a Jim Henson puppet show.. a quick google should reveal all you want to know..

i desperately wanted to be a Doozer when i was young, small, and green.

FC

 

[Pat494]

Thanks for the info

Wish I could change my Avatar. The T2W options are a bit limited

 

[trendie]

FC,

nice outfit. just the thing for climbing the ramparts of Buckingham Palace.

 

[FetteredChinos]

you can find any old picture. then go into MS paint to "stretch" the image to make sure it is 50x50 pixels..

can get some crackers if you think creatively..

 

[FetteredChinos]

FC,

nice outfit. just the thing for climbing the ramparts of Buckingham Palace.

Give me my money, Betty!!!

 

[roguetrader]

Does anyone have an idea as to how much the GDP data could move the market? I think I read that this is probably the most important data out this week? Do you think anything short of expectations will send the market south or will it take a significant difference to have any effect? Does anyone know how much previous GDP data has moved the market either way?

GDP is rated a B on a scale of A - F for market moving and as such could move the market quite a bit, the problem is that it's not actually the data itself you need to worry about, but how the market decides to interpret that data at the time

 

[Racer]

Just been listening to a French gent on Bloomberg saying the US recovery in 2004 was based on tax cuts and consumer spending !!!

And now they have spent beyond their means, they are borrowing more and delaying paying the interest off till they are 'better off'

"Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money." Alan Greenspan

 

[rider]

is that a big h&s in the making :!: 5min chart and 5 days of constrution.

 

[FetteredChinos]

futures still easing off..

Rider, i would agree, provisionally, assuming i used charts..

but... trying to memorise what has happened over the last few days, it would point to a fairly severe drop before monday is over..

and also ties in with what im thinking..

i dont want to go short yet though

 

[Racer]

The FTSE 250 despite the huge drop yesterday and recovery in the US is down another 28 points today (that has been a very bullish index up to now)
Also the DAX is down, that would normally have recoved and held if it was in bullish mood.

 

[Minder]

Does anyone have an idea as to how much the GDP data could move the market? I think I read that this is probably the most important data out this week? Do you think anything short of expectations will send the market south or will it take a significant difference to have any effect? Does anyone know how much previous GDP data has moved the market either way?

Arthur Cutten has the following : Under 3% will be sold, benign number will be bought.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DowWeekly.gif

What's a benign number ?

Bloomberg consensus is 3.5%

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/

Benign between 3.0 and 3.5% ? Anything over 3.5% will be bought but that is highly unlikely IMO.

 

[FetteredChinos]

in other words, no-one knows..

what i do want to know is why people actually pay these commentators..

the consensus is wrong as often as it is correct.

yet someone still thinks of whacking a phat salary their way.

in what other field could you keep your job despite being consistently shyte?

edit:- if anyone mentions Bruno Cheyrou i will kill them :cheesy:

 

[roguetrader]

in what other field could you keep your job despite being consistently shyte?

Politics

 

[Racer]

Dax is on that 4180 level again

 

[rrtech]

Does GDP rise signal potential higher interest rate rise?

Arthur Cutten has the following : Under 3% will be sold, benign number will be bought.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DowWeekly.gif

What's a benign number ?

Bloomberg consensus is 3.5%

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/

Benign between 3.0 and 3.5% ? Anything over 3.5% will be bought but that is highly unlikely IMO.

Thanks for your reply. I do not know much about the GDP data but would I be right in thinking that a rise might indicate that interest rates might increase at a faster rate and therefore the market would fall?

 

[Racer]

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_events&Itemid=41

Gives an economic calendar with consensus and previous