i am not going waste time getting phD in economics before i start trading..
F^...THAT
You don't need a PhD in economics. 6 months of initial casual education after which you do daily research is all you need. Added to that, you need to sit in front of your pc all day while I can operate to a preplanned schedule (60 to 90 minutes total per day). So while you are sitting there waiting for something to pop up and fight off gambling habits, I am doing productive things unrelated to trading. Smart trading vs forced trading, take your pic.
cool.
where is your trade?
point me and rest of us to it.
Where is my trade? Is this like a "take me to your dealer" question?
My trading for 2018 starts tomorrow with the fomc minutes. If you want an example of how I trade though I am more than happy to provide but I am guessing you are being sarcastic and don't really want to hear it.
Interesting to see where each national currency is on a scale from very hawkish to very dovish in terms of respective interest rate changes. e.g. have a look at this at places like dailyfx.com where they chart this on a graphic called "perception of monetary policy standing" - see John Kicklighter's video clips such as this recent one **clip**
I say "interesting", not sure if its vital for short-term trading. Depends on your strategy.
dont really give a sh^t, but go ahead
and, thats the truth
like your going teach me smtg right??
Cheers mate!
Funnily enough when I opened that video, it started at 5 mins something... Evidently I had already come across it couldn't quite follow or just couldn't engage with it. The video that FXX provided here has actually been quite helpful. It gives me a clearer understanding of the cogs in the machine and the overall result of human behaviour/policy. So when I watch that again, i'll watch that Kicklighter video again. I was quite perplexed at why the USD reacted the way it did to what I thought was going to provoke a bullish outcome...im sure the video will make more sense to me soon
The next stage is the recovery phase which is where the majors are synchronously forming (this is where growth and leading happens).
Do you mean lending?
Not trying to correct you...if it's not a typo then I don't understand.
If high interest rates negatively affect lending and therefore overall spending, ergo deflating an economy through restriction of credit...then why is an economy increasing rates seen as a bullish thing? If it's essentially putting a deflationary pressure on the economy...restricting the freedom of the cogs if you will
Lag, takes time for the effects to kick in. There is still tons of free and easy money swilling around, this is why we have rampant inflation (true inflation) not the made up nonsense that govt puts out.
In reply to the original post to this thread in term of economic cycle, I don't know and I don't care. Does knowing where it is helps me in making my trade decisions when using fundamentals to trade - NO. This is illustrative of why one can go off tangent when attempting to understand how to fuse fundamental data to trade opportunities.
As FXX mentioned, FOMC is up on Wednesday. It is potentially a tradeable risk event. Will it be - I don't know. What do I need to do? I will refresh my notes from the Dec 13 FOMC meeting minutes and any analyst preview. There are 3 prospective hikes signaled for 2018 with the earliest expected in March 2018. The complication is that at the beginning of the year, there are some rotation of voting members. Key statement to watch will be reference to a March hike. Currently Fed watch is pricing in above even.