where can I "sell Russia"?

[johnnn]

I'm a political analyst and am strongly of the view that Russia is going to undergo hellish turmoil in Russia in the next month and, as a result, major financial turmoil. How can I speculate on this? I'm looking to be in and out within a week or fortnight. Heavy gearing preferred.

The currency (RUB) floats in a managed band, and while I doubt it will stay in this band for much longer, I'm not a big bank so I can't speculate on that; and in any case, I wouldn't like to speculate on the time-scale of any dropout. Nor would I want to focus on one or two specific stocks - not my game.

There are two main Russian stock indices - MICEX and RTS. Does someone know where I might sell these indices (whether using CFDs, options, or some other instrument). Is there a non-fly-by-night firm (even an SB!) where I can do this?

Thanks in advance!

John

 

[Trading Spaces]

There is probably a russia etf on every major stock market. The us one is rsx. If you want more gearing than the reg t minimum 2:1 then you need $100k to open a portfolio margin account to get upto 5.6 to 1 leverage.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

buy puts.

 

[johnnn]

buy puts.

Any idea where? I'm small-scale retail (low four figures to invest). Index puts would be great, or CFDs might be better, being without theta... but where can I do either of these?? I'm based in the UK and would prefer to be able to get in and out online. Am watching political developments very closely. No trading or broker accounts at present.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Then you're at the mercy of your wallet, mate. If you don't have access to sufficient capital then you can't capitalise to the degree it seems you're hoping for and options are certainly out of the question.

Have you had a look at the weightings of the index? It might be easier to short single stocks constituents... if you think the index is gonna tank.

 

[Trading Spaces]

There are rsx puts but they don't look very liquid. They trade on six us option exchanges. You need an interactive brokers account but the minimum is $10k or equivalent to open. With less than that you need a spread betting account and short rsx or whatever Russian index they have.

 

[Martinghoul]

For god's sake, the man just wants to know who offers the ability to punt the index. What drugs you guys on?

johnnn, I have just looked at what's available on IG Index. I see two possibilities that may have potential:
1) Market Vectors Russia ETF
Market Vectors Russia ETF (the Fund) seeks to replicate as closely as possible the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal Russia+ Index (DXRPUS). DXRPUS is a modified market capitalization-weighted index consisting of publicly traded companies that are domiciled in Russia. DXRPUS comprises a diversified group of many of the largest and most liquid companies in the investable universe. Companies eligible for inclusion in DXRPUS should be domiciled in Russia, traded in Russia and/or on global exchanges with market cap exceeding $150 million, and should have daily average traded volume of at least $1 million over past six months. The index provider is Deutsche Borse AG. The Fund is passively managed and may not hold each DXRPUS component in the same weighting as DXRPUS. The Fund’s investment advisor is Van Eck Associates Corporation.

2) Central Europe and Russia Fund
The Central Europe and Russia Fund, Inc. (the Fund) is a non-diversified, closed-end investment company. The Fund seeks long-term capital appreciation primarily through investment in equity and equity-linked securities of issuers domiciled in Central Europe and Russia (with normally at least 80% in securities of issuers in such countries). The Fund invests in sectors, such as energy, financials, materials, telecom services, industrials, utilities and consumer staples. The Fund’s manager is Deutsche Investment Management Americas Inc. The investment adviser of the Fund is Deutsche Asset Management International GmbH.

These are just example of things you may be able to do. You should talk to the other people who offer spreadbetting, as they may have other stuff available.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Nobody (that I know of ) offers russian index retail spread bet or CFD... and he said he wants heavy gearing.

 

[Martinghoul]

Nobody (that I know of ) offers russian index retail spread bet or CFD... and he said he wants heavy gearing.

Well, one doesn't always get what one wants, but there are always possibilities.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Well there's me told. None of them on my platform. I wonder if IG restrict the markets I have access to cos my account balance is low?

 

[Martinghoul]

Well there's me told. None of them on my platform. I wonder if IG restrict the markets I have access to cos my account balance is low?

I just did a search. I am not telling anyone off, but let's be constructive. Wasn't there someone posting on this here forum about Russian equities? These:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ind...index-futures-liquid-tradable-instrument.html
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/equ...erging-market-equities-their-derivatives.html

 

[johnnn]

Then you're at the mercy of your wallet, mate. If you don't have access to sufficient capital then you can't capitalise to the degree it seems you're hoping for and options are certainly out of the question.

Argh! I meant to say low five figures, not four. I've got about GBP 25K to invest. Still a small amount, but a bit bigger than just a few grand, as I mistakenly posted before!

(I think I must have meant "low multiple of 10^4"

Have you had a look at the weightings of the index? It might be easier to short single stocks constituents... if you think the index is gonna tank.

I'll have a look, but my analysis involves political, military, and political-economic factors (including comparative to other countries subjected to successful 'colour revolution' efforts), and some knowledge of what's going on diplomatically, rather than much experience studying e.g. the relationship between sectors or specific companies. If you want a flavour, have a look at what Berezovsky and McFaul have been up to.

 

[johnnn]

johnnn, I have just looked at what's available on IG Index. I see two possibilities that may have potential:
1) Market Vectors Russia ETF
Market Vectors Russia ETF (the Fund) seeks to replicate as closely as possible the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal Russia+ Index (DXRPUS). DXRPUS is a modified market capitalization-weighted index consisting of publicly traded companies that are domiciled in Russia. DXRPUS comprises a diversified group of many of the largest and most liquid companies in the investable universe. Companies eligible for inclusion in DXRPUS should be domiciled in Russia, traded in Russia and/or on global exchanges with market cap exceeding $150 million, and should have daily average traded volume of at least $1 million over past six months. The index provider is Deutsche Borse AG.(...)

2) Central Europe and Russia Fund
The Central Europe and Russia Fund, Inc. (the Fund) is a non-diversified, closed-end investment company. The Fund seeks long-term capital appreciation primarily through investment in equity and equity-linked securities of issuers domiciled in Central Europe and Russia (with normally at least 80% in securities of issuers in such countries). The Fund invests in sectors, such as energy, financials, materials, telecom services, industrials, utilities and consumer staples. The Fund’s manager is Deutsche Investment Management Americas Inc.(...)

These are just example of things you may be able to do. You should talk to the other people who offer spreadbetting, as they may have other stuff available.

Many thanks for this. I will check them out. The first looks especially interesting. (I've no up-to-date take on Poland, Hungary, etc., so less keen on the second.) Cheers! Johnnn

 

[Trading Spaces]

Open an www.interactivebrokers.com account then, short rsx and take a look a the options for more leverage.

Argh! I meant to say low five figures, not four. I've got about GBP 25K to invest. Still a small amount, but a bit bigger than just a few grand, as I mistakenly posted before!

(I think I must have meant "low multiple of 10^4"


I'll have a look, but my analysis involves political, military, and political-economic factors (including comparative to other countries subjected to successful 'colour revolution' efforts), and some knowledge of what's going on diplomatically, rather than much experience studying e.g. the relationship between sectors or specific companies. If you want a flavour, have a look at what Berezovsky and McFaul have been up to.

 

[VielGeld]

Just be sure to buy enough time if you're going the options route. This stuff might not pan out the way you expect and you're out 25k in that event.

 

[tar]

I'm a political analyst and am strongly of the view that Russia is going to undergo hellish turmoil in Russia in the next month and, as a result, major financial turmoil. How can I speculate on this? I'm looking to be in and out within a week or fortnight. Heavy gearing preferred.

The currency (RUB) floats in a managed band, and while I doubt it will stay in this band for much longer, I'm not a big bank so I can't speculate on that; and in any case, I wouldn't like to speculate on the time-scale of any dropout. Nor would I want to focus on one or two specific stocks - not my game.

There are two main Russian stock indices - MICEX and RTS. Does someone know where I might sell these indices (whether using CFDs, options, or some other instrument). Is there a non-fly-by-night firm (even an SB!) where I can do this?

Thanks in advance!

John

Here is some leveraged ETFs you could trade ( be careful ! ) :

Bull 3 times ( RUSL ) :

RUSL: Summary for Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3x S- Yahoo! Finance

Bear 3 times ( RUSS ) :

RUSS: Summary for Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3x S- Yahoo! Finance

 

[Trading Spaces]

Just be sure to buy enough time if you're going the options route. This stuff might not pan out the way you expect and you're out 25k in that event.

If the options were more liquid you could put on a risk reversal, sell calls to buy puts. cost zero, or you could even do it for a credit.

 

[deadbroke]

I'm a political analyst and am strongly of the view that Russia is going to undergo hellish turmoil in Russia in the next month and, as a result, major financial turmoil. How can I speculate on this? I'm looking to be in and out within a week or fortnight. Heavy gearing preferred.

The currency (RUB) floats in a managed band, and while I doubt it will stay in this band for much longer, I'm not a big bank so I can't speculate on that; and in any case, I wouldn't like to speculate on the time-scale of any dropout. Nor would I want to focus on one or two specific stocks - not my game.

There are two main Russian stock indices - MICEX and RTS. Does someone know where I might sell these indices (whether using CFDs, options, or some other instrument). Is there a non-fly-by-night firm (even an SB!) where I can do this?

Thanks in advance!

John

Crude Oil.

 

[VielGeld]

If the options were more liquid you could put on a risk reversal, sell calls to buy puts. cost zero, or you could even do it for a credit.

That's a backspread, isn't it? Why sell calls and not ITM puts? If the trade doesn't work, then he gets some credit in return. If it works out, then he just got a "free" trade.

Long puts and short calls just doubles the pain if you're wrong, imo.

 

[Trading Spaces]

A back spread is when, in this case, you sell the put just otm and buy three far otm puts.