Adamus
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papapips
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Few negative trades and you have to revise or change your plan. Or somtimes it is just emotional, the planis good but you dont stick with it. I used to do that all the time.
The best way to test your strategy do it live with a experience trader and if you strategy is wrong he will figure it out why and correct you or teach you a better one.
If you know someone that can teach you, fantastic otherwise log on to tradetheeasyway.com
Happy piping
The best way to test your strategy do it live with a experience trader and if you strategy is wrong he will figure it out why and correct you or teach you a better one.
If you know someone that can teach you, fantastic otherwise log on to tradetheeasyway.com
Happy piping
nah boll0cks...ask a trend follower. 20-30% win rate, 5 losers par for the course
arabianights
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i like to get my **** out and swing it around
u would be very popular down my neck of the woods, especially in the gents toilets
A mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals. It is the same as calculating the correlation between two different time series, except that the same time series is used twice - once in its original form and once lagged one or more time periods.
The term can also be referred to as "lagged correlation" or "serial correlation".
When computed, the resulting number can range from +1 to -1. An autocorrelation of +1 represents perfect positive correlation (i.e. an increase seen in one time series will lead to a proportionate increase in the other time series), while a value of -1 represents perfect negative correlation (i.e. an increase seen in one time series results in a proportionate decrease in the other time series).
This value can be useful for computing for security analysis. For example, if you know a stock historically has a high positive autocorrelation value and you witnessed the stock making solid gains over the past several days, you might reasonably expect the movements over the upcoming several days (the leading time series) to match those of the lagging time series and to move upwards.
B
Black Swan
Following the trend (on a single security) you *expect* 5 losers in sequence...?
Adamus
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That would be interesting to code up. How many times do you do it? How do you choose time periods to correlate?
robster970
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IMHO:
1. 5+ consecutive losers should be looked at. Entirely possible but you should evaluate. I think I posted on here in my early days that I had 8 and was advised to pack up, have a beer and think about it all. Worked a treat as a I realised I didn't know what I was doing because I was trading a plan that required way more screen time than I had at that point.
2. 15% drawdown on account. Entirely possible but you should evaluate. If you're scalping no way. If you're swing trading ok, if you're position trading then this is probably minor.
3. Learn how you/your system behaves over a statistically significant sample of trades (min 50, 100 better) using real money. We all trade differently and you'll find with real money (and I don't mean 50pp) that if you are using any form of discretion that your system will generate quite variable results for a while. Until you can separate how well you execute a trade from how well your account is doing and all the baggage that goes with that, you'll find that results will be odd as you do weird sh1t that comes from protestant work ethics, fear of failure, hating yourself, poor relationship with siblings, you name it......
4. If you get to either point (1) or (2) then stop and evaluate coldly whether you are the problem (discretion) or whether your edge actually exists. Once you think you've figured out what it might be, adjust and start again...
If you find this post patronising, then I apoligise - it's just difficult to tell where you are from your OP
1. 5+ consecutive losers should be looked at. Entirely possible but you should evaluate. I think I posted on here in my early days that I had 8 and was advised to pack up, have a beer and think about it all. Worked a treat as a I realised I didn't know what I was doing because I was trading a plan that required way more screen time than I had at that point.
2. 15% drawdown on account. Entirely possible but you should evaluate. If you're scalping no way. If you're swing trading ok, if you're position trading then this is probably minor.
3. Learn how you/your system behaves over a statistically significant sample of trades (min 50, 100 better) using real money. We all trade differently and you'll find with real money (and I don't mean 50pp) that if you are using any form of discretion that your system will generate quite variable results for a while. Until you can separate how well you execute a trade from how well your account is doing and all the baggage that goes with that, you'll find that results will be odd as you do weird sh1t that comes from protestant work ethics, fear of failure, hating yourself, poor relationship with siblings, you name it......
4. If you get to either point (1) or (2) then stop and evaluate coldly whether you are the problem (discretion) or whether your edge actually exists. Once you think you've figured out what it might be, adjust and start again...
If you find this post patronising, then I apoligise - it's just difficult to tell where you are from your OP
