What's this Elliot Wave Indicator for the FX market all about?

trendie said:
CarpeUK,
( please forgive spelling, have just finshed off a bottle of Mumm champers with dinner )

JonnyT, I believe, is a nreak-out system om FX. whereby you take a position oin the direftion of the breakout.
The breakout being defined as; the high and the low betweem 7am-10am.

Dont know which time ( GMT, EST, PST ) etc.

But has good reviews on FX sites rtegarding JonnyT.

Might be worth seeing if the most profitable 4xtrend trades are time-dependant.

I have seen relative falt-lining most of the time, then sudden moves at certain times.

Even if you accept 4xtrend, could you avoid losing trades by placing more value on certain times ?
( when exchanges open arond the world - already mentioned in manual )

:)
Click to expand...


hehehe...trendie, try hitting the spell check button after.....but no worries. tip. DON'T TRADE!!!!! :)

as for JonnyT'S we need to find out more about it, exact details if we can, if its open to all then test it. I would say most strategies are dependant on something as the market needs to move to earn any pips but yes certain times of the day are more profitable then others, like now the market aint doing to much, a few pips here and there but later on it will make on final leap then slow down again. We need to do more research into what are the best times.

Now this is where my inexperience shows. I just read and replied to snaily's post and so far he is 60pips up on 1 trade...NICE!!! i can find the trade on the 30min chart but when i try to check it out on a 15min chart i am unable to find it. Any Ideas?
 
trendie said:
I had the same problem Mark.
Must be some mechanism to prevent people from selling on the manual.

I just accept that they need to do this to protect themselves.

I think I understand the entry signals.
Need to re-read and understand what triggers an exit !!
Click to expand...

Trendie,

When z hits 0 or -0 that is your sell. but i do not always rely on the exit as i like to judge my own, dont be to greedy and set your own exit but the books one works as well.

On the print issue i am able to print it but it comes out all over the place, i think it is designed this way to stop it being copied.
 
Hi CarpeUK, ( advice noted :) )

snailys trade, according to my reading is;

GBP/USD, 15mins; 23:00hrs, goes to [1,3,0.0006] at range of high=1.7783 and low=1.7779.

converting to UK time is problematic !!

its been trending up ever since. currently 1.7935 ( +- 5 )

hope this helps.
( HIC !! )
 
made 88 pips on a 4 curencys today, but exited before signal indicated, wouldn't have done nearly as well if waited for indicators. I studying exit points at the moment, maybe should be considering stop/lose levals. Any one got ant suggestions for this?
 
snaily said:
I'm long on GBP/USD based on my 30 min chart at 1.7870, so about 60 pips at the moment.
I had an earlier short at 1.7765 (around 07:00 hrs) which I lost 40 pips on and reversed it to long at 1.7805, and added to the position when the the elliot wave system gave a signal.
Click to expand...

Snaily,

i have been looking back at the chart (30min) and I am not sure if you noticed it or not but there was an earlier trade (long) at 05.30 @ 1.7840 so that would have given you an extra 30pips. It was a posative buy (new signal) check it out and let me know if you see the same thing.
 
kbay said:
made 88 pips on a 4 curencys today, but exited before signal indicated, wouldn't have done nearly as well if waited for indicators. I studying exit points at the moment, maybe should be considering stop/lose levals. Any one got ant suggestions for this?
Click to expand...

Kbay,

congrats on the 88pips :)

since i have been home form work i have only made 25pips :(...miss all the good action becasue i am at work but hay a little is better then nothing. :)

I have been looking at this for the past few days and i must admit i think the only problem with this system is the exit. if you wait for a o or -o then you may lose a lot of your profit so what i have been looking to do is check out the action over a shorter time period eg if you are using a 30min chart monitor the action on a 15 min chart so you know what is happening earlier or if you are on a 15min chart check out the 5 min chart and see what is going on but never trade on a chart smaller then 15min

thats just my opinion...Anyone else have any ideas?
 
CarpeUK said:
I have been looking at this for the past few days and i must admit i think the only problem with this system is the exit. if you wait for a o or -o then you may lose a lot of your profit so what i have been looking to do is check out the action over a shorter time period eg if you are using a 30min chart monitor the action on a 15 min chart so you know what is happening earlier or if you are on a 15min chart check out the 5 min chart and see what is going on but never trade on a chart smaller then 15min thats just my opinion...Anyone else have any ideas?
Click to expand...

I must say (with all my inexperience!) this was exactly my thought on reading it. Your suggestion sounds very logical and reasonable to me. I do a pretty similar thing (i.e. using a shorter periodicity of chart) when exiting spread-bet intra-day trades on indices every day, and I have certainly found that it's preserved a lot of profit over the years. Can't give any "real facts" at all re forex, though, since I haven't started yet. But certainly my first thought was that following this interesting system, some of the exits might be "too late". Mind you, it's all too easy to think that from a quick look, and sometimes a year's figures can confound your initial impression! Anyway, for myself, I'm looking forward to taking a greater part in the conversation when I'm using the thing (in demo mode at first, of course). Meanwhile, many thanks for recommending it.
 
Am I right in thinking this system requires a plug-in to FXCM?

What if the company/person supplying/supporting the plug-in decided to no longer support/supply it AND/OR FXCM no longer supported it/was in business?

Is anyone attempting to reverse-engineer this EW plug-in to use standalone?

AND

Going by some posts above, you have already started 'tweaking' the system...erm....
 
Roberto said:
I must say (with all my inexperience!) this was exactly my thought on reading it. Your suggestion sounds very logical and reasonable to me. I do a pretty similar thing (i.e. using a shorter periodicity of chart) when exiting spread-bet intra-day trades on indices every day, and I have certainly found that it's preserved a lot of profit over the years. Can't give any "real facts" at all re forex, though, since I haven't started yet. But certainly my first thought was that following this interesting system, some of the exits might be "too late". Mind you, it's all too easy to think that from a quick look, and sometimes a year's figures can confound your initial impression! Anyway, for myself, I'm looking forward to taking a greater part in the conversation when I'm using the thing (in demo mode at first, of course). Meanwhile, many thanks for recommending it.
Click to expand...

Roberto,

Your welcome. I am glad people are finding this strategy profitable and easy to use. I am not a big fan of set exits unless you are not watching the screen but this system does require you to watch the screen so my recommendations are you monitor your own exits (and dont be greedy...hehehe)
 
TheBramble said:
Am I right in thinking this system requires a plug-in to FXCM?

What if the company/person supplying/supporting the plug-in decided to no longer support/supply it AND/OR FXCM no longer supported it/was in business?

Is anyone attempting to reverse-engineer this EW plug-in to use standalone?

AND

Going by some posts above, you have already started 'tweaking' the system...erm....
Click to expand...

Bramble,

You are correct this is a plug in for FXCM. As for no longer supporting it good question (i am not sure it is even supported) if i was to phone fxcm and ask them about it they may not be able to help. As for a guarantees (they come with washing machines not with life) :) and if this did happen i would have to say oh well thats life. (but i am already in talks with a programmer who may be able to re create it using automated signals but we are a long way away from that at the moment) but the question i ask myself why would they FXCM want people to trade.

as for revers engineering i have not tried because i do not know how, if someone would like to supply me the tools and knowledge i will be happy to do it. sometimes people break things down a little to much and look for flaws but as i do not have the knowledge to do this i have to stick with future testing and so far its looking profitable :)

The final point about tweaking it, you are correct but thats the only thing so far that can be found as a possible flaw but with any system follow it to the letter but change what you need to feel comfortable with trading. if people are happy to follow the exit then do so but time and time again i hear people saying "dont exit a trade to early you will lose money"....sorry but what CRAP. profit is profit either 10pips or 50pips. this system will not make you a millionaire but so far the results are encouraging.....(this is in my opinion)

Please dont take offence to this post but some people who comment on it will always try and look at the negative. No system is 100% i defy anyone to show me one that is

now i have had my little rant i am ok :)
 
Good response Carpe, thank you.

I wasn't being negative - quite the reverse. I'm getting the drift that people are doing well or at least OK with this system.

My point was, wouldn't it be a good idea to insulate yourself from life's possible twists and turns and take away as many dependencies as possible. Surely that's a normal position to take?

Having a plug-in for one trading platform isn't very robust for the reasons I origianlly stated. I was just suggesting developing it out into a standalone system independent of any one specific trading platfor/broker.
 
TheBramble said:
Good response Carpe, thank you.

I wasn't being negative - quite the reverse. I'm getting the drift that people are doing well or at least OK with this system.

My point was, wouldn't it be a good idea to insulate yourself from life's possible twists and turns and take away as many dependencies as possible. Surely that's a normal position to take?

Having a plug-in for one trading platform isn't very robust for the reasons I origianlly stated. I was just suggesting developing it out into a standalone system independent of any one specific trading platfor/broker.
Click to expand...

Bramble,

Sorry i get where you are going now. Yes it is a very good idea. This is why i have been looking for a programmer to "take it apart" as they say so it could be used as a stand alone or with any other system if possible. I will be talking to a couple of programmers this weekend so i am hoping noe will be able to do what i need.

Sorry for the above post, i feel a little bad now :( as i know you are only trying to make an objective opinion, i believe that there are good trading systems out there that you can use and i think i have found one (well i hope so lets see what i will be saying in 6 months time)

Bramble if you know any programmers that would like some possible work (let me know and if in eed to pay them for the work i am sure i can arrange something) i want to keep my options open.
 
TheBramble,

Good point about tweaking already !
I think that is inevietable, with all the enthusiasm.
When it gets boring, which is supposedly ideal trading mind-state, we should have enough experience to decide what is best.
NB: being a trend-follower, I am looking at MAs ( sorry !! ) and/or breach of recent highs/lows to exit.
Like CarpeUK, I dont want to watch my profits slip away.
We could also experiment with trailing stop-losses.

With regards to reverse-engineering, it is based on Elliot-Waves, and thus the logic would be based on deciding key pivots to decide the wave-count.
Elliot Waves have always been notoriously difficult to decide, even in retrospect.

Anyway, even if the product became unsupported,
I am beginning to notice that if the price moves away by more than "normal" from an average and bounce back, it seems to see it as a pivot.

Just early observations !!
good trading all.
 
General question to 4xtren users:

Do you stay in front of the screen waiting for the entry-trigger ?
Or do you wait at certain times of the day, when trades are more likely ?
Or do you have some sort of alarm/bell to tell you an entry is likely ?

thanks
 
Today: 17-Sep-04: approx 09:30am

signal !!

EUR/USD; 15 mins; [1,3,0.0002] = BUY signal.
Prices; high=1.2207, low=1.2200
chart shows time as 03:45.
 
Hey Carpe !!

Getting somebody toi reverse-engineer the package may be a good idea.

Consider, if the program can, on-balance, correctly identify Elliot-Waves, and trigger good entries on FX, consider the applications to indices etc !!

just a thought
 
Morning,

This moving average system might be a useful benchmark for 4xtrend. It's a widely used 3,13,39 moving average method, which works across most time frames. 30 minute charts work quite well on EUR/USD, GBP/USD for instance. I tend to use exponential moving averages (EMA), but it would probably work with simple moving averages (SMA)

Rules are attached but the basics are:

BUY when EMA(39) is RISING and EMA(13) crosses up through EMA(39) - exit when EMA(3) crosses down through EMA(13).

SELL when 39 is FALLING and 13 crosses down through 39 - exit when 3 crosses up through 13.

It's a simple trend following method, which attempts to minimise whipsaws during flatter periods, no holy grail, but will keep you on the right side enough of the time to be profitable. Of course you aren't tied to one charting package/plugin and it can be applied to any liquid market.

As I say, might be useful as a comparison, for those interested.
 

Attachments

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Thanks ChowClown for your input.

One of the main problems of getting enthused with new things, is a loss of perspective.
An additional method, used as a benchmark, such as the one you have submitted, keeps people
aware to the relative merits of systems.

Personally, MAs have serve me well. ( not surprising being a trendie !! )
Also, they are a universal charting mechanism - no black-boxes, expensive subscriptions etc.

;)
 
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