Whats propping it up?

[Technically Fundamental]

Personally I'm having a hard time believing that things are on the up.

My best guess is governments scratchings backs and then all the top dogs somehow manipulating and inflating the markets to cushion against this "sell in may" lark.

This is sopposedly the "worst economic depression since blah blah blah" but the FTSE is yet to hit the levels it did at the DotCom. Now I can understand how fundamentally, this is not the best comparison (companies at the time blah blah blah) but in terms of the market and price...

Now, the BOE inf calculator says that in 1991 £1 = £1.60 today (wtf btw) so on that basis, iflating the FTSE by 160% to adjust for inflation in share price of the companies of which it is comprised. W1 Oct 1991 (month after BW) gives FTSE value of 4088 which < todays current value.

I'm open to any ideas besides my Icke-esq and accounting logic lol.

 

[Rossini]

Just look at a monthly chart, does this look like a bottom to you? I dont think so.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

WTF is propping things up though?

 

[robster970]

Perhaps the media have over-hyped the extent of the recession.

Firstly the Government say it's not that bad. Then it get's bad, then the Government overcompensate and say it's awful bearing in mind there is an election next year and wanting to look like they've turned this situation around.

And anyway the markets pay little attention to what's going on and carry on regardless it seems. I think pretty much all the bad news there is has been absorbed by price and people are just trading happily and taking longer term punts on historically strong stocks knowing they've bought in a period of extreme weakness.

Business as usual in the boom/bust economic cycle if you ask me.

 

[chump]

Personally I'm having a hard time believing that things are on the up.

My best guess is governments scratchings backs and then all the top dogs somehow manipulating and inflating the markets to cushion against this "sell in may" lark.

This is sopposedly the "worst economic depression since blah blah blah" but the FTSE is yet to hit the levels it did at the DotCom. Now I can understand how fundamentally, this is not the best comparison (companies at the time blah blah blah) but in terms of the market and price...

Now, the BOE inf calculator says that in 1991 £1 = £1.60 today (wtf btw) so on that basis, iflating the FTSE by 160% to adjust for inflation in share price of the companies of which it is comprised. W1 Oct 1991 (month after BW) gives FTSE value of 4088 which < todays current value.

I'm open to any ideas besides my Icke-esq and accounting logic lol.

Be patient ....you don't need accounting logic ...LOL ..you just need to understand the cycle ,moneyflow,and emotion....the latter you have too much of and as to my suggestion ..too little of ...which I find to be strange attributes in an accountant

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Hmmm... you make sense. I don't kno why I never saw it that way round. A market pullback and the news/govt and the rest of them are using it as spin...
Then comes swine flu epidemic to coincide with the inevitable continuation in the bearish downtrend.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Be patient ....you don't need accounting logic ...LOL ..you just need to understand the cycle ,moneyflow,and emotion....the latter you have too much of and as to my suggestion ..too little of ...which I find to be strange attributes in an accountant

Would I be on T2W if I was atypical accountant lol.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Who changed my thread title?

 

[chump]

Would I be on T2W if I was atypical accountant lol.

I don't know ,but you should stop gambling

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Gambling?

Thats a nice fundamental trade right there. FTSE has been massively overvalued when measured against a past recession. Short at 4480 (if it even gets there) with a 50pt stop and target 400 points thats a nice 8:1 RR. I think I'll whack 1 lot on a £2 mini next week and let it run

that will box off a good part of my holiday lol

 

[robster970]

Gambling?

Thats a nice fundamental trade right there. FTSE has been massively overvalued when measured against a past recession. Short at 4480 (if it even gets there) with a 50pt stop and target 400 points thats a nice 8:1 RR. I think I'll whack 1 lot on a £2 mini next week and let it run

that will box off a good part of my holiday lol

I doubt you'll get 400 out of it. Even the threat of pig flu killing everyone in the world only affected a small percentage of the 100 stocks in FTSE as everyone retreated back to banks and mining again. TCG got hit hard but recovered nicely over the last 2 days with 12% gains back to it's stronger than the index position.

Bear trap? Definitely and soonish I reckon. 400pts? No chance.

 

[gooseman]

so mortgage payments go down in line with interest rates, more people haev more money. this money finds it's way back into the stock market either directly or indirectly and we see a bounce. then unemployment kicks in and this gets sucked back out again.

collapserisation.

 

[robster970]

collapserisation.

Correction, aye. Collapse, nah. Unemployment will go up for sure but I don't think it will bleed things dry in quite the way you reckon.

Good word though. Wouldn't be suprised if it made it to the Today programme where I heard 'Moneterisation' used a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

400 points?

The quarterly range for FTSE 100 has been between over close to 1000 points for the past three for years. To put it in perspective,we're about to hit a prev res level in the worst economic crisis in 80 years and the index has done nothing but climb since this quarter has begin. If rejected by this level, to even have the same sort of range iwe will have to see a new low by end of june. im holding out for july

 

[Technically Fundamental]

whatchaz think?

 

[poborsky]

printed money!

 

[robster970]

I see your reasoning but I reckon it's a bit too predictible.

Test 4500, retrace back to 4200ish, if it break's 4550 it will use 4500 as support and then assume a slower rate of incline, a bit like your oval in your chart.

If it doesn't break 4550 then the economy is doomed and we all go short for a bit.

Anyone else for a punt/flame?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Mate you know how much money I've missed out on saying something is too predictable and/or over complicating trades? Any new support created during a recession can suck the long one.


Also take a look at the FTSE futures for Jul. By price its saying 4050 or 4100... This ia sexy 400 pointer I'm telling you. I'm over 30% certain lol

 

[robster970]

You probably have a point with the predictible thing.

I don't trade the index but do trade the stocks in the FTSE and I use the index behaviour for correlation. What I'm seeing in there is a reticence for a big correction so far because people have bought in at huge weakness and there is little/no incentive to sell right now whilst the stocks are still relatively weak. The only thing I can see that will shift that is some bad news to trigger the correction.

So I can see the resistance at 4500 and I can see the support at 4000 but I don't currently see people bailing out of the market to induce that drop because the strong stocks are historically undervalued (banks, miners).

Maybe it's just naivety on my part.

e2a - I just looked futures, I can see why the 'smart' money is looking at 4000..............because it's obvious.

 

[Rossini]

Banks are strong?