What will happen if germany leaves the euro?

[Fugazsy]

What do you think will happen:

a) to the union? (economically)
b) to the euro? (strong or weak))
c) and to Germany? (economically)

Thank you.
Fzsy

 

[tomorton]

I forecasted here a while back that the EU would not allow the weaker economy member states to retire from the Euro, but more likely the stronger (northern) Euro economies move into a higher Euro league - the Neuro!

That way everyone claims a victory: monetary union survives, pressure is relieved on the Mediterranean Euro economies, the northern (mainly German) electorate are pacified, everyone can believe they are getting a localised solution to unemployment etc. Of course, the accusation will be that the Euro has evolved into a two-tiered unionwith priveliged members and supplicants - but I think we're already there in all but name.

So - what if Germany leaves the Euro? - they won't. But what if Germany takes France and the stronger Euro economies into a Neuro? - the union persists, the Euro stabilises, the Neuro rises, Germany gets stronger.

 

[barjon]

Germany gain a huge commercial advantage by having an "undervalued" currency (euro) compared to what they would have if they were still with DM. Championing the euro was a cute trick on their part and replaced the advantage they previously enjoyed for many years post-war with the pegging of the DM which left it increasingly "undervalued" as their economy boomed.

Bailing out the weak is well worth it to keep that advantage.

 

[Splitlink]

Germany gain a huge commercial advantage by having an "undervalued" currency (euro) compared to what they would have if they were still with DM. Championing the euro was a cute trick on their part and replaced the advantage they previously enjoyed for many years post-war with the pegging of the DM which left it increasingly "undervalued" as their economy boomed.

Bailing out the weak is well worth it to keep that advantage.

But I wonder if it is worth their while, now, to bail out the weakest. Only they can tell, really, I suppose and they are playing a game of poker this week, to see what benefits they can get out of it.

 

[barjon]

But I wonder if it is worth their while, now, to bail out the weakest. Only they can tell, really, I suppose and they are playing a game of poker this week, to see what benefits they can get out of it.

Well, just imagine what the Drachma/Deutschemark rate of exchange would be at the moment instead of them standing at parity with euro.

 

[Pat494]

Mama mia

The southern layabouts might have to get off their fat a*ses and do a day's work !!

Whatever next ?

Can they spend it even faster than the Brussell's clowns can print it, on a one way disappearing voyage ?

Let them go back to the drachma ! Much kinder really.

Have to admit the thought of rolling out of bed every morning to go to work in the wet and cold is not very appealing really.





Καλή ευγενικό

 

[Forexmospherian]

Mama mia

The southern layabouts might have to get off their fat a*ses and do a day's work !!

Whatever next ?

When ever I have been to the greek islands on sailing hoildays - I always come across the Russian billionaires with their super yachts enjoying themselves.

I heard today the Greek debt is 5 times more than Bill Gate's net worth.

Surely a few dozen Russion billionaires could sort it out - and if they cannot negotiate a good deal - then they could always bomb it .

I bet there's got to be some oil under the Med and its also another part of Europe they could take over.;-))

 

[Fugazsy]

Mama mia

The southern layabouts might have to get off their fat a*ses and do a day's work !!

Whatever next ?

Can they spend it even faster than the Brussell's clowns can print it, on a one way disappearing voyage ?

Let them go back to the drachma ! Much kinder really.

Have to admit the thought of rolling out of bed every morning to go to work in the wet and cold is not very appealing really.



Καλή ευγενικό

Pat

thank you for your input......

I also lived in England for a while, at the time it seemed I was one of the few working.....most of the lads (not in my environment) where on unemployment benefit and all the benefit was waisted on dope and beer in the arch of a few ours......the rest of the all two weeks was spend by themselves smoking only tobacco in their squalid room (also covered by the government) waiting for the next payment...I am not talking about only a few, many where living in this manner....many.

In Southern Europe not benefit whatsoever, only " l'arte di arrangiarsi".

I do not think laziness can be always confined in a such simplistic manner....what I describe above also happens in a richer country...

by the way, mamma is spelled with two m's.....:innocent:

 

[Fugazsy]

When ever I have been to the greek islands on sailing hoildays - I always come across the Russian billionaires with their super yachts enjoying themselves.

I heard today the Greek debt is 5 times more than Bill Gate's net worth.

Surely a few dozen Russion billionaires could sort it out - and if they cannot negotiate a good deal - then they could always bomb it .

I bet there's got to be some oil under the Med and its also another part of Europe they could take over.;-))

F

Maybe you should help them out, with all your alleged thousands pips that you generate every week.....

BP suggest me to reply in this manner...

 

[davidcraigson]

If Germany leaves? Just think of every action film ever.... each one has an explosion. Or an implosion. The larger member states cannot do it, imho, or risk breaking the whole deal.

 

[be-positive]

F


BP suggest me to reply in this manner...

flicking s-it stirrer was long from EU @ 1.1394 :innocent:

 

[Fugazsy]

flicking s-it stirrer was long from EU @ 1.1394 :innocent:

:clap:

 

[Pat494]

If Germany dumps the PIIGS then the whole euro project will implode imho.
A wasted opportunity.

 

[Pat494]

Business and politics are imho inextricably mixed but this Greek crisis illustrates why there should be some distance between them. Firstly Greece crept into the Eurozone under false pretences to make the EU look better and then when push came to shove the Eurocrats should never have loaned all that money to an economy that wasn't ever likely to repay it. The politicians in their ignorance just kicked the problem for solving into the future.
I have no idea what the EU Parliament has to say about any of the current issues. They are silent when the national politicians, like Merkel and Hollande steal the limelight. Unless they start making their views known soon they will be relegated even further into the oblivion of a waste of money.

 

[neil]

Independence

What if the eurozone fell apart and each country reverted to their previous currencies -Lira, franc etc. What bliss

 

[barjon]

What if the eurozone fell apart and each country reverted to their previous currencies -Lira, franc etc. What bliss

Aargh, come off it Neil, I've got a shed load of euros under the floorboards

 

[neil]

Things to do with paper

Aargh, come off it Neil, I've got a shed load of euros under the floorboards

All is not lost Barjon - you could tuck them into your string vest to insulate your self against the chilly night air ?

 

[Fugazsy]

I think the rest of the union will prosper....

 

[tomorton]

But surely the only thing that would make Germany leave the Eurozone would be if another member were allowed to default: populist uproar at home would force them out. All voters would be happy short-term with this - German tax-payers would think they are at no further risk of additional defaults: the defaulting countries would see a temporary improvement in economic affairs as they gained a repayment holiday.

But longer-term, Germany would have lost its advantages of trade, financing and debt recovery from the Eurozone members, and would wish to act to regain its European supremacy. The answer would be to form a new monetary union with the northern EU states. The southern EU states would be driven to form their own union to avoid getting severely penalised by everyone else they deal with on the basis of the risk of another default.

So we end up with two Euro zones, north and south, and the electorates will be convinced this is an effective long-term solution, with an option left on the table for re-combining the northern and southern unions in the distant future when conditions are 'right'.

Sounds totally rational I hope.....

 

[Pat494]

But surely the only thing that would make Germany leave the Eurozone would be if another member were allowed to default: populist uproar at home would force them out. All voters would be happy short-term with this - German tax-payers would think they are at no further risk of additional defaults: the defaulting countries would see a temporary improvement in economic affairs as they gained a repayment holiday.

But longer-term, Germany would have lost its advantages of trade, financing and debt recovery from the Eurozone members, and would wish to act to regain its European supremacy. The answer would be to form a new monetary union with the northern EU states. The southern EU states would be driven to form their own union to avoid getting severely penalised by everyone else they deal with on the basis of the risk of another default.

So we end up with two Euro zones, north and south, and the electorates will be convinced this is an effective long-term solution, with an option left on the table for re-combining the northern and southern unions in the distant future when conditions are 'right'.

Sounds totally rational I hope.....

Could go that way but then Germany loses the benefits of a weak currency. The Northern Euro would be much higher through hard work while the Southern Euro would be dominated by the maniana culture zzzzzzzzzz. If they the ever combined it might be 2 seuros for 1 neuro.