What went wrong?

Splitlink said:
The comment you made about the similarities of our trading styles prompts me to answer, because I'm having great difficulty with extending my stops. In fact, it makes me so uncomfortable that I'm shelving the idea for a while, even though I realise I am likely to be more affected by spikes than I would, otherwise, be.

Another person who appears to be swinging around to this point of view is a new poster named cunparis who started his thread "Learning to trade etc" in which he links to a blog that I found very readable.
I thought that I would mention that, since you have used short stops and are trying to convert. It may be harder than you think (and I'm not a Scot). :)

To find his post, quickly, it was at 11:43 this morning.
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Split,

Thanks I shall check out cunparis blog.

What really helped me to get my head around bigger stops was to back test all my stopped out trades using a function of ATR. (not meaning an arbitrary atr stop, but an arbitrary atr% away from the chosen S/R stop level.)

It is very hard to argue with the facts from the calculator.

Good luck with your stops too.
 
I backtested, too. The first time I went live, I got stopped! Ouch! I've been twitching ever since.
 
topcat500 said:
Yesterday on the EUR/USD daily graph showing an uptrend, the RSI was 75 and ADX was in the 40's.

Expecting a reverse I went short @ 1.39066. But the market continued up closing me out at 1.39291.

As a novice what else should I have considered?

Thank you
Click to expand...


NFP is news that will always have an unpredictable effect on the market: wait for the market to show you what the news means. In every case, don't ever take a position against a market expecting a reversal - a reversal can only be seen once it's happened.
 
Funny how nobody has yet stated the other obvious fact......very few people (and I mean very very few) can scalp fx for 20 to 30 pips with ridiculously small stops of 25 pips, sure, you'll have loads of winners but you'll also have loads of losers and it would be very doubtful you could consistently have more winners than losers day after day, week after week and year after year.

There are so many variables in the market that could randomly move a currency pair by 30 pips and anyone thinking they can constantly anticipate these or be on the correct side of these moves is dilusional.....
 
Infinetyp said:
Funny how nobody has yet stated the other obvious fact......very few people (and I mean very very few) can scalp fx for 20 to 30 pips with ridiculously small stops of 25 pips, sure, you'll have loads of winners but you'll also have loads of losers and it would be very doubtful you could consistently have more winners than losers day after day, week after week and year after year.

There are so many variables in the market that could randomly move a currency pair by 30 pips and anyone thinking they can constantly anticipate these or be on the correct side of these moves is dilusional.....
Click to expand...

Ya think? Oh..OK then, thanks for that...
 
Infinetyp said:
Funny how nobody has yet stated the other obvious fact......very few people (and I mean very very few) can scalp fx for 20 to 30 pips with ridiculously small stops of 25 pips, sure, you'll have loads of winners but you'll also have loads of losers and it would be very doubtful you could consistently have more winners than losers day after day, week after week and year after year.

There are so many variables in the market that could randomly move a currency pair by 30 pips and anyone thinking they can constantly anticipate these or be on the correct side of these moves is dilusional.....
Click to expand...

Hmmm...firstly folk don't scalp for 20-30 pips with 25 pip stop. A 30 pip profit can often take hours to realise and I'd suspect it's generally off a 10/15 min TF. In my experience true scalpers look to close within minutes for 10 pips with a similar stop and there are guys I know of (using 1min tfs) that do a very good job trading the Euro..Not my thing but they'll take perhaps 20 very selective trades in a day once their indicators trigger and nearly always have pip positive days. 15 winners ( a few of those b.e.), 5 losers = 50 pips...

You may be surprised how *stable* most pairs are, it's actually rare to get shaken out of a trade by a constant random 30 pip movement, I'm often stuck in ranges of 10/15 pips for an hour or two..and if there were constant random 30 pip movements have a long hard think what we'd all be doing...;)

Secondly, if your entry/edge is consistently good enough then a 25 pip stop loss is perfectly adequate and not as you state "ridiculously small". In point of fact my recent losses (on my day-trades ) is circa 17 pips with a 25 pip stop loss and at the stage that I puke (off a 10/15 min TF) 9 times out of 10 it indicates to me (on day trades) that the trade has failed and it could be time to reverse the trade direction. Fellow traders actually reckon my stop is in fact too wide at 25 and it could be be tighter...

Thirdly I do occasionally suffer from delusions, but never were trading is concerned...;)
 
Black Swan said:
Hmmm...firstly folk don't scalp for 20-30 pips with 25 pip stop. A 30 pip profit can often take hours to realise and I'd suspect it's generally off a 10/15 min TF. In my experience true scalpers look to close within minutes for 10 pips with a similar stop and there are guys I know of (using 1min tfs) that do a very good job trading the Euro..Not my thing but they'll take perhaps 20 very selective trades in a day once their indicators trigger and nearly always have pip positive days. 15 winners ( a few of those b.e.), 5 losers = 50 pips...

You may be surprised how *stable* most pairs are, it's actually rare to get shaken out of a trade by a constant random 30 pip movement, I'm often stuck in ranges of 10/15 pips for an hour or two..and if there were constant random 30 pip movements have a long hard think what we'd all be doing...;)

Secondly, if your entry/edge is consistently good enough then a 25 pip stop loss is perfectly adequate and not as you state "ridiculously small". In point of fact my recent losses (on my day-trades ) is circa 17 pips with a 25 pip stop loss and at the stage that I puke (off a 10/15 min TF) 9 times out of 10 it indicates to me (on day trades) that the trade has failed and it could be time to reverse the trade direction. Fellow traders actually reckon my stop is in fact too wide at 25 and it could be be tighter...

Thirdly I do occasionally suffer from delusions, but never were trading is concerned...;)
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MMM , not delusional hey, let's go through this step by step hey!:cool:

Firstly, you define scalping differently to me, who cares what you call it..does not change my point.

Secondly, eur/usd can easily have a daily trading range of 150 to 200 pips, 30 pips is insignificant and does not mean anything. Your statement that it is "rare to get shaken out" lacks substance.

thirdly, and I must qoute this one...this says it all.... "I'm often stuck in ranges of 10/15 pips for an hour or two"....bud, mate, bro, brother:sneaky:.....after an hour ( not to mention two hours) the reason for you entering your short time frame trade is no longer there and you're riding lady luck all the way to the bank!!

And Finally, there are hundreds, if not thousands of COMMERCIAL reasons why banks, hedge funds, FTSE 100 companies and the rest are buying and selling currencies all the time during the day, and I doubt very much that your m5 and m15 charts can ever anticipate the affect this has on the short term price of currencies. You are a grain of sand in the universe trying to predict what will happen on Jupiter through your broadband line while sitting in your gown!:p

Simply, you are delusional to think that you have or can master this short term RANDOM intraday movement in currencies continually. Step back a bit and look at the bigger picture, maybe 4hour,daily and things become a lot more clearer, but 25 pip stops don''t cut it in that world.

I think you would be seriously narcissistic to lead others to believe that they could day trade currencies, some can and you may but this is the exception. You have over the last week posted "trades" and been commenting on how easy it is!! If you can't post it live then don't post it...
 
Infinetyp said:
MMM , not delusional hey, let's go through this step by step hey!:cool:

Firstly, you define scalping differently to me, who cares what you call it..does not change my point.

Secondly, eur/usd can easily have a daily trading range of 150 to 200 pips, 30 pips is insignificant and does not mean anything. Your statement that it is "rare to get shaken out" lacks substance.

thirdly, and I must qoute this one...this says it all.... "I'm often stuck in ranges of 10/15 pips for an hour or two"....bud, mate, bro, brother:sneaky:.....after an hour ( not to mention two hours) the reason for you entering your short time frame trade is no longer there and you're riding lady luck all the way to the bank!!

And Finally, there are hundreds, if not thousands of COMMERCIAL reasons why banks, hedge funds, FTSE 100 companies and the rest are buying and selling currencies all the time during the day, and I doubt very much that your m5 and m15 charts can ever anticipate the affect this has on the short term price of currencies. You are a grain of sand in the universe trying to predict what will happen on Jupiter through your broadband line while sitting in your gown!:p

Simply, you are delusional to think that you have or can master this short term RANDOM intraday movement in currencies continually. Step back a bit and look at the bigger picture, maybe 4hour,daily and things become a lot more clearer, but 25 pip stops don''t cut it in that world.

I think you would be seriously narcissistic to lead others to believe that they could day trade currencies, some can and you may but this is the exception. You have over the last week posted "trades" and been commenting on how easy it is!! If you can't post it live then don't post it...
Click to expand...

er OK rambo..good luck with your issues...:whistling
 
topcat500 said:
Yesterday on the EUR/USD daily graph showing an uptrend, the RSI was 75 and ADX was in the 40's.

Expecting a reverse I went short @ 1.39066. But the market continued up closing me out at 1.39291.

As a novice what else should I have considered?

Thank you
Click to expand...


I've highlighted in red where you went wrong

There are 2 types of Technical Analysts in my view

The first are wannabe prophets who command the market to stop and reverse at the battle lines they have drawn.

The second follow price as displayed in their preferred style of TA.

Following price means buying on the way up and selling on the way down, not buying on the way down and hoping it turns, catching falling knives comes to mind.

As for 25 pip stops, well i must be in trouble then....i only use 23.

Trading is harder and faster on the smaller tfs and that is why its good advise to learn your trade on the daily TF, but that does not mean it can not be done.
 
Vaco said:
I've highlighted in red where you went wrong

There are 2 types of Technical Analysts in my view

The first are wannabe prophets who command the market to stop and reverse at the battle lines they have drawn.

The second follow price as displayed in their preferred style of TA.

Following price means buying on the way up and selling on the way down, not buying on the way down and hoping it turns, catching falling knives comes to mind.

As for 25 pip stops, well i must be in trouble then....i only use 23.

Trading is harder and faster on the smaller tfs and that is why its good advise to learn your trade on the daily TF, but that does not mean it can not be done.
Click to expand...

I only use 25-30 but I have done it for so long that I cannot extend it. I have tried longer periods but its not worth the stress I get. I need a shrink!

Well, since I'm still in the game, I guess I'm doing something right although I'm no millionaire, yet. :)
 
Black Swan said:
er OK rambo..good luck with your issues...:whistling
Click to expand...

3rd deadly sin of a narcissist: "Arrogance", A narcissist who is feeling deflated may reinflate by diminishing, debasing or degrading somebody else.

I'm not the one with issues and don't care what you believe you are capable of (check out 2nd deadly sin of a narcissist!) it's the way you impose yourself on others that's rather sickening really.

You spend too much of your waking day in forums instead of the real world where probably nobody could give a toss what you say....good luck with your delusions of grandeur...

Happy trading:cheesy:
 
Infinetyp said:
3rd deadly sin of a narcissist: "Arrogance", A narcissist who is feeling deflated may reinflate by diminishing, debasing or degrading somebody else.

I'm not the one with issues and don't care what you believe you are capable of (check out 2nd deadly sin of a narcissist!) it's the way you impose yourself on others that's rather sickening really.

You spend too much of your waking day in forums instead of the real world where probably nobody could give a toss what you say....good luck with your delusions of grandeur...

Happy trading:cheesy:
Click to expand...

Blimey, you're a bit of a mess aren't you...:eek:
 
Vaco said:
I've highlighted in red where you went wrong

There are 2 types of Technical Analysts in my view

The first are wannabe prophets who command the market to stop and reverse at the battle lines they have drawn.

The second follow price as displayed in their preferred style of TA.

Following price means buying on the way up and selling on the way down, not buying on the way down and hoping it turns, catching falling knives comes to mind.

As for 25 pip stops, well i must be in trouble then....i only use 23.

Trading is harder and faster on the smaller tfs and that is why its good advise to learn your trade on the daily TF, but that does not mean it can not be done.
Click to expand...

Hi Vince, agree with the "following price" analogy, but not sure it's nec. "harder" on the smaller TFs, just simply different and learning on the dailys is not something I'd advise tbh, unless folk are comfortable with circa 250+ stops from day one.

And on the comfort factor perhaps folk should look at what they're prepared to lose per trade and adjust their trading accordingly. For example we know that if trading off a 10-15 min TF a 20-30 stop is adequate, half hour TFs perhaps 50 pips is nec, 2 hour TF 200 pips etc etc..

With my swing/position trades the stop is generally dictated by the high/low of the previous 2 days, with the small TF day trades it's generally the high/low of the session (averages out at 25 pips)
 
tomorton said:
Anyway, I thought scalping has always been trading for the bid-offer spread.
Click to expand...

Yes Tom, that was always my understanding, however it appears to have now evolved over recent years to encompass trading off short term TFs, typically 1-3min with small stops/small targets..
 
I should rephrase- by harder I mean you will lose your shirt quicker if you havn't got it right and that you have less time to manage the trade if all does not go smoothly, Whilst some are happy to let trades run to their stops I've found it better to take decisive action yourself and cut trades not going well for a small profit or smaller then hard stop loss.
 
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