Martinghoul
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The fundamental economic situation and the varying policy responses to it, maybe?
counter_violent
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What time did you make this trade ?
Hard to help with analysis here given the lack of detail.
B
Black Swan
NFP therefore TA was a mess...endex...
Thank you
Trade opened around 12.30pm UK time (closed when I was out)
CMS platform times were open 19.14, closed 20.39 (I'm not sure whether that's GMT)
TC
I think that your stop got hit with a spike out in a volatile patch around 1300. Bit of bad luck. If you had gone long you would, probably, have been stopped, equally. This often happens to me when I leave a trade open and go to work so I don't like doing it. I would not change your trading style on that trade, alone, but watch those spikes! After that spikey period the pair went back, more or less, to normal for the rest of the day.
I don't trade Forex often so the rest may think I'm full of it!
I don't trade Forex often so the rest may think I'm full of it!
counter_violent
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Ok as previously stated NFP ruined any chance you had of making a technical trade.
What you have to consider are some basic mathematics here.
What is the normal day range of eur usd?
What is the min, max, and average range of price moves ref NFP?
What are the historical outcomes of price movements around NFP news events ? (in percentage terms...price moves higher and stays higher than the price prior to the news release. The opposite of this....and the switchback where direction is little changed despite the high price volatility)
This is the most basic criteria / homework that has to be in place before attempting trades into up coming news events.
Only when you have this type of information and a lot more besides, can you then make informed trading decisions.
Indicators of price are driven by price. Sounds like an obvious statement right !
If it is true, then what use are indicators like ADX and RSI to your trading decisions?
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wackypete2
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Don't trade on NFP days unless you are experienced enough and have nerves of steel.
Splitlink got it right.
Peter
Splitlink got it right.
Peter
If your TA is based on a Daily graph then you need a stop and target to reflect this.
Shakone
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You should consider whether RSI being 75 and ADX in the 40s is enough to expect a reversal.
You should also consider whether it is enough to catch that reversal on a daily chart with a 23 pip stop.
You should also consider why you're fighting the trend.
Plus all the NFP stuff already mentioned.
This is not too different from FTSE, which I was trading. I opened a long trade near the close of the pin at A but I did not have a stop close. It was a token close about 50 away, in case of a computor crash. When I am present I close manually. See what happened at B? It just went level with A in a spike action designed to take out stops. Often it goes beyond the level. What I think happens to reverse it sooner, rather later, is that buyers are there with their orders, ready to enter long.
At the other end, the same happened with D, when it levelled with C.
All this happened so quickly that I had no time to react manually , the index was up again very quickly, leaving me still in the trade.
For OP, this happens all the time. You have to get around that aspect of trading because the market will take out stops if it can. However, if there are more opening orders than stop losses, that can trigger a new trend which means that the unfortunate
stop loss folk are out of the trend when they should not be.
I give pins loads of breathing space now. It seems as though everyone is trying to run them.
I blame Trader Dante and his thread telling everyone to place their stops just below the pin.
Edit - What makes me laugh is all these people that say they don’t trade or believe in pins. At the same time they are happy to trade a 10min chart similar to the one you have just shown.
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wackypete2
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I agree here just from my own observation.
So try changing strategies and wait for run, then get in. Trading is all about adapting.
Peter
trader_dante
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I can see that the RSI was 75 and the ADX was in the 40s however price was still trading above its 10 day exponential moving average and was not at the extremes but rather firmly within its 20 period, 2 deviation, bollinger bands, plus the MACD was making higher highs as it will in an uptrend. I didn't get a chance to put on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and the Commodity Channel Index because I can barely see the price as it is at the moment. But you really need to make sure all the indicators line up. There are hundreds to check so make sure you do your due diligence.
Oh, also, you should consider not selling after price has been heading down for 8 consecutive hours. (check the h1 chart).
As a side note, in most cases (unless you are Paul Tudor Jones or you just simply couldn't be bothered to leave the house to go to the casino that day) when you are trading a daily chart right in the face of Non - Farm payrolls, a 23 pip stop will not suffice.
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I give pins loads of breathing space now. It seems as though everyone is trying to run them.
I blame Trader Dante and his thread telling everyone to place their stops just below the pin.
Edit - What makes me laugh is all these people that say they don’t trade or believe in pins. At the same time they are happy to trade a 10min chart similar to the one you have just shown.
It's not a question of whether everyone is trying to run them. It makes sense to take notice of them. TD's pins are Pinochio pins, if I remember correctly. I use anything that makes sense to me and I was not stopped because, as you say, one has to be wary of them. That does not mean to say that I was happy when an attempt was made to take out my stop. Who can tell whether the price would bounce keep on going down?
trader_dante
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I blame Trader Dante and his thread telling everyone to place their stops just below the pin.
lol it was easier than saying "prepare to stop out below the pin but physically remove your stop, wait for the swing low to get faded and then manually re-enter your stop under the new low as soon as price has rallied back above the swing point". ;-)
They'll get me once. They'll get me twice. But I'll be damned if I give them my money a third time.
Split,
I was only having a having a bit of fun. In actual fact I was hooking on my bait for an un-related fishing expedition.
From what I can gather, I have marked you up in my head as having a similar trading style to me.
Back on topic, it was a big turning point for me when I shed my Scottish roots and paid for just a little extra space on the charts for my stops. I think you get what you pay for.
Hope I didn't come across as being an old misery! Any criticism is welcome, I've got a lot to learn and little time to do it in!
The comment you made about the similarities of our trading styles prompts me to answer, because I'm having great difficulty with extending my stops. In fact, it makes me so uncomfortable that I'm shelving the idea for a while, even though I realise I am likely to be more affected by spikes than I would, otherwise, be.
Another person who appears to be swinging around to this point of view is a new poster named cunparis who started his thread "Learning to trade etc" in which he links to a blog that I found very readable.
I thought that I would mention that, since you have used short stops and are trying to convert. It may be harder than you think (and I'm not a Scot).
To find his post, quickly, it was at 11:43 this morning.
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