What is your forecast for EUR/USD three months from now?

[tar]

In any case, 100% of the actors - as I was careful to say, not traders - means eactly that: it includes the major players as well as minnows like me. So I'm messing with you a bit here. But 100% is 100%.

Of course, I don't expect Goldmans to even be aware of this website or poll or to show their hand if they were. But maybe they do..........?

Ofcourse if 100% are selling and looking to sell more then prices will continue to fall , thats how the markets operate , however if they are all short and are waiting to buy again then that's what they call a crowded trade and prices are expected to reverse ...

 

[Forexmospherian]

In any case, 100% of the actors - as I was careful to say, not traders - means eactly that: it includes the major players as well as minnows like me. So I'm messing with you a bit here. But 100% is 100%.

Of course, I don't expect Goldmans to even be aware of this website or poll or to show their hand if they were. But maybe they do..........?

I personally think it futile looking at FX forecasts supplied by any organisation - whether Retail or Bank driven.

Its a bit like all traders saying nobody with a real winning method or strategy will give it away free to others - as it will effect their own winnings etc (lol)

Many retails who have winning methods ( remember its probably under 15 or 20% of all retail traders ) don't want their years of study and effort just passed onto others while they are still trading and that is similar to Large Banks - they don't want their "inner secret" being found out etc.

A typical Bank or Institution ploy is to say we see the EU going to say 1 0700 in the next quarter and we will be targeting that area.

What they fail to mention is that they will first try and take it up to say 1 1500 or higher before heavily selling. The "masses" only think - if XYZ Bank are looking at 0700 - we will sell and wait - but meanwhile unless they have say a 500 pip stop - they will get stopped out with a losing trade.

The FX "game" will remain "cloak and dagger" and the further in time you try to forecast - the more it ends up as just "fortune telling"

Regards


F

 

[barjon]

I think you need to re-examine the poll.

19% believe price will reach 1.02 - 1.04 Without wishing to state the bleeding obvious, this does not mean "most people" ! Even if you add in the 4% sub 1.02 , that only makes 23%, which is still not "most people" !

Further.........if you add in the 12% sub 1.06 , that makes a total of 35% who believe price will be sub 1.06 level. Which is nowhere near half of them polled !

I don't think hhiusa opened the thread for much reason other than a further demonstration of the superiority of the USA and all things American (including the mighty dollar) in common with several other threads he has opened including the "which currency would you hold" one opened co-incident with this one.

Shame he doesn't realise that such continued crowing arrogance is one of the unwholesome traits that causes much of the world not to look at the USA with affection.

 

[tar]

Many retails who have winning methods ( remember its probably under 15 or 20% of all retail traders ) don't want their years of study and effort just passed onto others while they are still trading and that is similar to Large Banks - they don't want their "inner secret" being found out etc.


F

Studies show that the % of consistently profitable traders are much less that that . Yes in a single Q you will find 25-35% of traders are profitable but that's meaningless .

 

[counter_violent]

I don't think hhiusa opened the thread for much reason other than a further demonstration of the superiority of the USA and all things American (including the mighty dollar) in common with several other threads he has opened including the "which currency would you hold" one opened co-incident with this one.

Shame he doesn't realise that such continued crowing arrogance is one of the unwholesome traits that causes much of the world not to look at the USA with affection.

Hi Jon,

Yes there is a theme running through all the posts

But it provides us all with countless opportunities to point out just how wrong thinking some yanks are.

 

[hhiusa]

I don't think hhiusa opened the thread for much reason other than a further demonstration of the superiority of the USA and all things American (including the mighty dollar) in common with several other threads he has opened including the "which currency would you hold" one opened co-incident with this one.

Shame he doesn't realise that such continued crowing arrogance is one of the unwholesome traits that causes much of the world not to look at the USA with affection.

The poll was done by an American or American company. It was Dukascopy Bank SA, which is a Swiss company. That is the first flaw with that statement. Secondly, the survey was global, which included Europe, meaning your fellow Europeans.

 

[fxstrategist]

Unless there is a surprise rate hike by the FED, I think the EURUSD will stay in a 200 to 300 pip range, between the 1.08 and 1.11

 

[counter_violent]

Still selling them Euros boyz? The smart money keeps on buying them !

 

[hhiusa]

Still selling them Euros boyz? The smart money keeps on buying them !

We are 1 month into the 3 month window. The euro has barely budged. Foreign currencies are doing well because the US market is not. Once this minor blip dissipates, the euro will fall a little and stay in the $1.09-1.11 range.

 

[counter_violent]

We are 1 month into the 3 month window. The euro has barely budged. Foreign currencies are doing well because the US market is not. Once this minor blip dissipates, the euro will fall a little and stay in the $1.09-1.11 range.

The Shemitah and super shemitah will sort everything out

 

[hhiusa]

The Shemitah and super shemitah will sort everything out

Do you need to consult your zodiac sign as well?

 

[counter_violent]

We are 1 month into the 3 month window. The euro has barely budged. Foreign currencies are doing well because the US market is not. Once this minor blip dissipates, the euro will fall a little and stay in the $1.09-1.11 range.

At this rate, we might hit target by next week

Just goes to show how wrong the masses are...ref your chart in post 1

Never let it be said that I do not tell you absolutely everything and all of it in advance. :smart:

 

[hhiusa]

At this rate, we might hit target by next week

Just goes to show how wrong the masses are...ref your chart in post 1

Never let it be said that I do not tell you absolutely everything and all of it in advance. :smart:

The fact that you were so excited that it passed $1.12, amuses me.

 

[darktone]

The fact that you were so excited that it passed $1.12, amuses me.

Its not as amusing as you currently being waaaaay wrong.
Im no maths expert, but were staring down the barrels of 1.14 atm. 1.18 is a shítpile closer than 1.06 - 02.

Even MM's trident is pointing up!

Youre in danger of becoming T2W's new best indicator! :cheesy:

 

[hhiusa]

Its not as amusing as you currently being waaaaay wrong.
Im no maths expert, but were staring down the barrels of 1.14 atm. 1.18 is a shítpile closer than 1.06 - 02.

Even MM's trident is pointing up!

Youre in danger of becoming T2W's new best indicator! :cheesy:

You are indeed not a mathematics expert. I do not know how you came up with the figure for $1.18. It would require a 3.6% jump to reach that amount. The momentum will not last. The euro has risen through no fault of its own. It is only because the US markets are down. When the US markets correct and rise again, that artificial euro bubble will burst.

 

[darktone]

You are indeed not a mathematics expert. I do not know how you came up with the figure for $1.18. It would require a 3.6% jump to reach that amount. The momentum will not last. The euro has risen through no fault of its own. It is only because the US markets are down. When the US markets correct and rise again, that artificial euro bubble will burst.

Mmm. Me likey!

According to this poll, most of the people believe the euro will fall as far as $1.02. Almost half of them believe it will be somewhere below $1.06. :clap:

3 months from now I see EURUSD @ 1.1800 - 1.2000

It must be so nice to see the world through rose colored glasses. I am praying for a fall. Drop, baby, drop. I concur with poll results.

Now bare with me, im maxed out:-
1.1800 - 1.1400 = 0.04 (400 pips)
1.1400 - 1.0600 = 0.08 (800 pips)

CV is ahead atm eh.

So where can eurusd go from here to finish out you 3 months?
Down (like what you is praying for)
Flat (around the 1.4 mark)
Up (Lulz)

 

[hhiusa]

Mmm. Me likey!





Now bare with me, im maxed out:-
1.1800 - 1.1400 = 0.04 (400 pips)
1.1400 - 1.0600 = 0.08 (800 pips)

CV is ahead atm eh.

So where can eurusd go from here to finish out you 3 months?
Down (like what you is praying for)
Flat (around the 1.4 mark)
Up (Lulz)

So, you basically wrote a lot and explained almost nothing. The figure is still arbitrary. It is not about how many pips. Yes you can do simple math. 400 pips is $0.04. I care more about the percentages. 400 pips for the EUR/USD is ~3.6%. 400 pips for the USD/SEK ~0.5%. You will obviously make more money on a 400 pip movement on the EUR/USD than the USD/SEK. Percentages matter more.

What was the point in quoting me?

 

[fxstrategist]

Anything is possible in the markets, anything could happen and make the EURUSD reach 1.1800 or even higher. The thing is that we do not know for sure when that will happen. Nobody knows, just as well, it may go and visit the 1.0800 level. For now the trend is bullish, but remember that usually after a stong rally or drop, the pullback comes in, so be aware.

 

[csc2009]

Anything is possible in the markets, anything could happen and make the EURUSD reach 1.1800 or even higher. The thing is that we do not know for sure when that will happen. Nobody knows, just as well, it may go and visit the 1.0800 level. For now the trend is bullish, but remember that usually after a stong rally or drop, the pullback comes in, so be aware.

It's true, anything could happen, the coming week is critical test of Euro's strength.

 

[darktone]

So, you basically wrote a lot and explained almost nothing. The figure is still arbitrary. It is not about how many pips. Yes you can do simple math. 400 pips is $0.04. I care more about the percentages. 400 pips for the EUR/USD is ~3.6%. 400 pips for the USD/SEK ~0.5%. You will obviously make more money on a 400 pip movement on the EUR/USD than the USD/SEK. Percentages matter more.

What was the point in quoting me?

wriggle wriggle wriggle.

Lets put in simple terms
'smart man' + thinks he knows something + same as crowds opinion = fade

In this thread, yo is da 'smart man'. CV is the fade.

Now I dont know shît, but my gut says lulz. :cheesy: