So I got lucky and rebalanced my retirement/investment portfolio and sold various funds that i kept in cash right before the correction in October. I then started DCAing back in in small increments. Thing is i was kinda expecting/hoping for a market crash so i could dump it all in at the bottom, but that never happened so instead of pumping all my cash back in when the S&P was down 7% i held out and now i have 50% of my portfolio in cash that i have been slowly investing at every market dip. So my question is should i wait for another big drop or just put everything back in now cause i certainly dont want to lose out on any gains - thank you
What are you doing to hedge your position?
Everybody and their monkey is buying these little dips. But think about what you are potentially doing. These dips are nothing...we are back to all time highs within a couple of weeks. Everybody is long right now. So right now to go long the market is to be buying at all time highs.
If your 1 for 1 long across the board on S&P correlated products what is going to happen to your portfolio if/when we get a real correction.
Look what happened to all the mutual funds in 2008-09....on average they were down 10 or more points than the S&P.
That's really a personal choice depending on your goals and current positions.
I'm not a buy and hold investor but I would at least look into reducing my cost basis and/or have some kind of short deltas on.
It's just that right now, to me, it looks like most of the market risk is to the downside. I would not sleep well if I didn't have some kind of downside protection.
I'm not a buy and hold investor but I would at least look into reducing my cost basis and/or have some kind of short deltas on.
It's just that right now, to me, it looks like most of the market risk is to the downside. I would not sleep well if I didn't have some kind of downside protection.
thanks but still not sure what you mean- can you please make some suggestions on what you would consider to be protection and if its wise to just hold in cash until a big dip? My investment goals are long term for retirement however i would like to make some short term gains as well
thanks
thanks
Pat494
Legendary member
- Messages
- 14,614
- Likes
- 1,588
If you don't want to trade why not let someone else do the hard work and you just go along for the ride ?
Zulutrade, collective2 etc. or invest in good ole property ?
Coming to think on it - the orphans of Outer Mongolia would probably accept a bit of dough ?
Zulutrade, collective2 etc. or invest in good ole property ?
Coming to think on it - the orphans of Outer Mongolia would probably accept a bit of dough ?
brewski1984
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,067
- Likes
- 355
You probably shouldn't advertise you have cash that you want to invest as you'll probably be getting loads of scammers messaging you?
He's basically saying what I was. There is a lot of risk to the downside in the market right now as I see it. But aside from my personal take it is just prudent to manage the risk. Options (selling calls and puts) or trading a long/short portfolio allow you to manage your delta risk (directional risk). If you are all long, whether it be in funds or otherwise, you have a lot of risk on the table.
The days of buy and hold are dead. With the technology available to the retail investor and the low fees you can be far more nimble and precise than most of these big firms. And their interests lie mostly with asset gathering and collecting fees and not getting hit by a bus....and that involves keeping you uninformed and too afraid to do it on your own.
Huh...maybe your right....lemme go ask the greeter at WMT how that buy/hold thing worked out for them.
While I'm doing that call all your managers and advisers and check your accounts.....add it all up....subtract all the fees....and see where your at. If your happy with the returns then by all means keep doing what your doing.
But the SPY is up 15% for the year and 83% for 5 years....if you haven't done at least that after fees then you might as well buy a bunch of SPY or SPX and close your eyes, hope for the best and cut out the middlemen....because a monkey throwing darts at the S&P would have done as well.
Serious traders are not buying and holding.....they are buying weakness, selling strength, taking profits and managing risk. The big institutions are the ones who stand to gain convincing you that that strategy works. I'm constantly amazed how much of the public is satisfied with mediocre returns and will keep paying the monkey's fees for the privilege.
If you can order a pizza you can learn the strategies to protect yourself...you don't need anyone else.
You forget that by constantly buying and selling you are incurring more taxes. you are taxed less the longer you hold a position. The ETFs i own are very low cost and most are commission free. the trading fees are part of the price you pay for a security (cost basis) and losses are tax deductible. ALso im not a serious day trader..im just rebalancing my portfolio and now that i have available cash i will make periodic contributions over the course of the next 6-8 months whenever there are big dips. if there is a market crash i will unload 50-60% of my liquid savings and pump it into the S&P and my existing stocks. I dont think there is anything wrong with this strategy
make pee laugh so much. you funny man. you want discount good time?
K, sounds like you've got it all figured out.
I'm not a day trader either. I trade probabilities and sell premium....not something you can do in a day for the most part.
But think for a minute how this plays out.
Say you have 100 units of capital. You are 50 invested and 50 cash. The market takes a 50% dump....now you have 25 invested and (assuming you are somehow able to perfectly scoop the bottom of this crash where no one else will) you then take your other 50 and go all in....now you are 75 in with a 25 loss. Now you're 75 has to do 33.3% before you are at break even. That's assuming that all along the way you didn't make any mistakes by buying fake dips, or scooping the bottom too soon or too late.
Try picking the bottom some time....it's not that damn easy. (I thought I picked the bottom of SLV at 18...I was wrong....but today I'm currently up small on the position even though SLV is at 15 as I managed the risk and have been reducing my cost basis by collecting premium)
Everyone that was long in 2008 only hit break even earlier this year.....causing them to miss out on the biggest 5 year bull market we have ever seen. But at least they got their tax deduction.
wry and dry,
