Weekly Parameters & Test Trades

[7thSignalTrader]

Gone. This is what I don't see the silly one's doing. The don't produce much - they just sit back and attack what others produce under the guise of protecting other people from going down the wrong path. How smart that was.
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Until you guys decide whether or not you want the profiles done inside a Journal or here, I will post whatever I have in this section.
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Weekly Params: EURUSD
Week of: 12/12/04

Long Swing Target: $1.3433
Short Swing Target: $1.3196
Swing Trade Signal: Long
Entry Point: 12/10/04 (early)
Entry Price: $1.3229 (late)
Pips Expected: 204
Pips So Far: 75

Notes:

This is of course late in coming. I’ve been inside my Swing move since last week end of session Friday. Rare, that I would enter a Swing position before the actual signal was given – but since I designed the system, knew what was coming for this Monday’s open (which actually took place on Sunday at 3:30pm for me). Depending on which broker you use and which data feed you have, your “open” time will vary.

This is not a “strict” profile. These are however, the conditions that I am conducting some tests under right now. I captured a quick 50+ pip move Long last session and was taken out by my shorter term Day Trade Limit Order last night. So, I’m using these parameters to do some additional testing of the Metadata Signal Engine (MDE) which is still only half completed. I still have to populate the Meta Data Warehouse manually and I am procrastinating day and night dreading having to do that task. It is boring, routine and not very fun – but I need the 100-day data that it provides in order to optimize the primary signal engine. So, I better get going on that job this week. I hope to have it done by the end of the week – I hope.
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Other:

Normally, I will post Swing Trade Profiles on Sunday afternoons OR on Monday mornings. The Day Trades will typically get posted after 2:00pm each day when I am available with something to post. All data comes directly from the system’s engine/trader’s interface.

I am currently trading under a test protocol using a newly updated Revenue Model (Profit Model). I started with $1,000.00 demo cash. The goal is to run it as close to $1 million as possible following the Revenue Model. I am currently on Trade Number 6 with a $500.00 cost-basis in the trade seeking a small 50% net gain. According to the model, if I can maintain a high enough accuracy rating, after trade number 56, the account balance should be $1,015,255.00. That is of course running at 100% accuracy – which I’ve never been able to do before. The best that I’ve been able to accomplish is the mid 90’s for 41 trades. So, I have some personal motivation to break my own record.

As soon as I find out how to post pictures, I will post a pic of the Revenue Model that I’ve built. The Revenue Model (as far as I am concerned) is really why I’m in this business. At trade number 111, it shows a balance of over $1 billion. Of course, you will run into Lot Sizing issues with your Broker – depending on who you broker with – but those details can be worked out. I would also suggest NEVER trading at these levels under your own social security number, or even from the same account – but, worry about that stuff when the time comes. I just thought the projections on the model were interesting to see.

Thus, accuracy is one of the most powerful things I can contemplate in the Forex. If you can find a way to maintain it, then the sky is the limit and you start to run into other problems like being able to get in and out of the market with a massive number of lots. I guess at some point, it will make sense to become a broker and trade direct to Interbank – if you can become a “member” (quote un-quote - sheepishly).

Where’s that “sheepish” emoticon when you need one?

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Gone. But, will remain as the kind of example of trading the Forex that won't be here.
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Let me be clear:

I just gave you the engine's weekly parameter for the swing trade that it projects for the week of 12/12/04. Swing’s in this system usually run for 3-5 days in length, while Day’s typically run from 1 hour to 24 hours.

I am currently testing both the Swing Trade that I entered “early” on last Friday (because I knew where the system would be mostly pointing on this Monday) AND I am also conducting 56 trade ramp to $1 million from a $1,000 starting account balance.

On the 56 ramp, I have already completed 5 successful test trades back-to-back. I am now on ramp/test trade number 6. It started as a Day Trade yesterday and I entered at $1.3289. The entry was lousy and that is because I am test trading with elements that are not yet a fully integrated into the system – so my targets are a bit off.

I’m simply giving a slight behind the scenes look into what I am currently doing. When I post a Live Trade Profile, it will be fully intact with no caveats on “test trading”. It will simply be a live profile. Some of my 56 ramp trades will be “test” and some will be “live” (using profiles here on this forum) – I will specify which at the time of the post. So, because I am in development, assume that everything is “test”, unless I specify otherwise.

This ramp trade needs to score 50 pips in order to qualify as “accurate” according to the Revenue Model – or else, even if it is one pip short – it is classified as “Failed”. It is a very strict protocol, but it leads to a faster growing account balance – which is the name of the game. There is not a whole lot of wiggle room in my trades or the way I measure them. Either they hit the target or they don’t. So, the account balance could be growing steadily, even though the system rating is getting lower for a short period of time.

If I error, I like to error on the side of positive revenue in spite of a reducing accuracy rating on the system.

 

[Roberto]

Thanks for your posts, which clarify quite a bit, TV. Fascinating stuff!

The Day Trades will typically get posted after 2:00pm each day when I am available with something to post.

What time-zone are you in? Could you just clarify by giving the GMT equivalent of that, please?

If you can find a way to maintain it, then the sky is the limit and you start to run into other problems like being able to get in and out of the market with a massive number of lots.

For myself, that's a problem I could live with, I assure you! (And Joe Ross has written quite a bit about it, I think).

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Weekly Target: Update 1

Gone. But, will remain as an example of an update that won't be here.
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System has just moved the Weekly price targets:

Weekly Long Target: $1.3436
Weekly Short Target: $1.3205

This is a slight shift "up" in the Price Structure which is good to see given the trade direction. This places the Meridian right at $1.3320. So, the price action is underperforming the expected Trajectory.

Yes - I am in the Pacific Time Zone. So, please adjust accordingly. Thanks.

 

[smiley]

Gr8 Work

TV

Been following this thread with growing interest. Its VERY unusual for somebody to come on here promising detail and actually deliver but you are true to your word. I wish you the very best and will continue to watch with great interest.

Thankyou

 

[dwt1020]

TV,

Thanks for the Profile.....You don't mention Stops. Where do you put them..?
I'd assume a bounce from the Short Swing Trade target, do you place it below there.??

Thanks again for the Profile and I'll be watching with great interest.

d

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Weekly Parameters & Test Trade: Update 2

Gone. But, will remain as an example of the type of results that won't be seen here.
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I needed 50 pips on this test trade in order to maintain the 56 trade schedule to $1+ million from a $1,000 starting account balance. This was trade number 6 of 56 and it scored: 198 pips thus far.

The Weekly Parameters originally called for 204 pips on the Long Swing trade. So, that puts the accumulation factor at 97.05% of pip target. The Weekly Long Target was originally placed at $1.3433, and then got bumped up to $1.3436. Today, the system has bumped the target to $1.3452. At this typing the close price is $1.3424. This system has self-adjusting targets, obviously.

The Revenue Model put this trade at $500 cost-basis and required a $250 return in order to remain on schedule to $1+ mil. The actual return on this trade is hovering near 266% (a $1,300+ return), which puts me well head of the schedule and give me lots of cushion down the line towards trade number 56.
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Before this move happened, I posted something from the professional community showing the great confusion in the minds of many “pros”. I also posted something on the concept of the Omega Eclipse, and explained that it was my opinion that the early occurrence of the OE had caused the severe horizontal compression in the EURUSD and that there would be an explosion of price coming very soon – of course, the parameters posted already set my position as Long.

Most people were sitting on the fence in the EURUSD until it began to move. They were not in position before the move happened. One of the pillars of this trading technology is to put me in position “before” move occur - that way I can maximize potential as best as possible. Every week, there is an Omega Eclipse in every single currency pair traded in the Forex. When you know what to look for, you can capture them and score fairly large scale moves. The only happen once per week – but they are the catalysts the drive the entire Weekly movement.

Would Bramble like to comment on this and explain how a 266% net return when only a 50% net return was expected, is heading down the “wrong road”? If this is the wrong road, Bramble – then put me on it any day of the week.

Until I get enough posts suggesting where people would like to see profiles, I will put what I have here in this thread.

 

[7thSignalTrader]

DWT1020 Reply

Gone. But, will remain as a nice example of the type of protocols that won't be seen here.
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DWT1020,

STOPS:

The only reason(s) I would use a stop is to guard against adverse news. Otherwise, the system is designed to put me into a trade on the right side of the Price Structure. I know that I have not fully defined what ‘Price Structure’ means. It will require that talk about other “linked” concepts within the system, so I’m trying to come up with a new way to talk about Price Structure, without going too far into the system.

I don’t just enter the market and start ‘trading’ for trading sake. I have several modes of trading:

1) Real-Time Test Trading
2) Real-Time Developmental Trading
3) Live Production Trading

Remember, in an earlier post, I said that this is my business – this is how I earn my living. So, I don’t approach this the same way I would one of my hobbies, like driving corvettes at the track on the weekends. I treat this same way I do whenever I fly. When I fly, I have a certain “system” that I follow with very strict protocols. I get my weather briefing at a certain time – I write my IFR flight plan at a certain time – I design the plan a certain way – I preflight my aircraft a certain way and in a certain order – I call for fuel at a certain time and in a certain order – everything is done according to a designed protocol/system and I rarely deviate from that method because I take it seriously.

Likewise, when I trade (something that I also take seriously) I like to have a plan filed before I enter the trade. That is why I use Revenue Models (Profit Models) that contain the elements listed in my previous post. I trade to the requirements of that model. The reason I do this, is to be as accurate towards my goal as possible. The Revenue Model is my “trading flight plan” (pilots will understand this better). It has SID’s, STAR’s, Frequencies, Altitudes, Alternate Airports, etc., etc. It has all of the elements that keep my financial ship on-course and on-time. If you are serious about building real wealth, then you have to have a plan.

My stops are typically equal to the previous trade’s revenue target. In other words, my last test trade against the revenue model was trade number 5, and it had a cost-basis of $400.00. The revenue model therefore, called for a $200 net return on that trade in order to remain on schedule to the target account balance of $1,015,255.00 after 56 trades. Trade number 5 was successful. Therefore, trade number 6’s stop was equal to the $200 gained on the previous trade. I’m not willing to lose more than I previous earned. Couple that protocol to a trading model that usually places me on the right side of the Price Structure, and I rarely get stopped out.

Of course, as I said earlier – adverse news can blow a hole through any good trading model. No trading model in the world can reverse the imminent impact of adverse news. However, a good trading system will allow for a much better recovery on adverse news.

I try to allow the trading model and the money management model, do most of the heavy lifting for me by wrapping them with protocol. If the model is good, and there is no adverse news in the pipeline, things typically remain on-schedule. And, being on schedule and on course is really all I care about because the schedule/course will take you to your target goal in due time. And, with 100% reinvestment coupled to the power of the pip – those timelines can really be short.

Hope this helps.

 

[dwt1020]

VT,

thanks for the info.. I use to use mean stops but had a bad experience while I wasn't looking so now I ALWAYS put a stop in "somewhere". It's interesting you use part of the last profit you made as a reference for stops as I do that too...;0

I do understand the pilots lingo as I had my pilots license when I was much younger...I didn't use it much and then drifted away from it.

 

[donaldduke]

LOL, realtime trades my a***.

You posted that profile five days after you entered the market.

 

[FetteredChinos]

oh DD you old cynic you

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Grow A Pair of Eyes

“You posted that profile five days after you entered the market.”
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That’s silly and blind at the same time.

Any bat could see that my trade signal was “Long”. Any bat could read the post and see that I admitted that I was posting the parameters late. Any bat could also see that between the time of my post AND the actual move that there was CLEARLY well over 169 pips remaining in the move.

The fact that I placed your blind *ss directly in the heart of the move and your insistence of pretending that it never happened in full plain view, is extremely telling about the kind of intellectually dishonest person you are. So, you were not able to participate in the over 200 pips that I saw, because I was not posting parameters at that time. But, you darn sure were able to benefit from the 169+ pips that I placed on the table for you.

So, what’s you point? If you actually have a cogent point – which I doubt very seriously.

The “facts” always seem to trip people just like YOU.

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Cynic -or- Blind?

“oh DD you old cynic you”
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That’s not cynicism. That’s pure blindness of something that was clearly placed right under your nose. But, if you cannot seen beyond your nose, then you might think is cynical, instead of pure blindness.

Such a clueless bunch.

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Dw1020

Yes - my use of STOPS changes depending on the "strength" of the primary signal and the location of the current close price within the Price Structure.

Today, for example (meaning trade number 9) I was looking for 50% net gain to the Short side. Right now, I'm looking at a 242% net gain on nearly 119 pips to the downside. This came, of course, just after the upside move and on the heels of the Omega Eclipse Long move for the week. This is a very common set-up in the system I use depending on the configuration of the Price Structure. So, given the intensity of the Short signal yesterday’s at the open (my time = 2pm) and the “location” of the close price within the Price Structure, I used a STOP that was a full 100% of the “previous days” net revenue of 266% net gain.

266% followed by today’s eventual 240%+ rounds down to a nice 506% net after two trades. Today’s activity should bump the next trade past numbers 10 and 11. So, my next trade will be number 12 (if I exist this position correctly) and that will leave 44 trades remaining on my way to over $1 mil.

This is the beauty of trading on-schedule and using a Revenue Plan that is closely tied to a well thought out risk strategy using correctly placed STOPS. Not to mention the trading technology that puts you in the right position at the right time.

After trade number 9, the geometric growth takes on a whole new meaning. From this point forward, the acceleration to trade number 56 should be outstanding. I started this test with $1,000 8 trades ago. The balance is now over $4k and that was pretty much linear growth. The non-linear growth (or geometric growth) should start to kick in at this point over the next couple of trades. That’s when you will see the balance really start to expand.

I’ve learned the hard way over the years that correctly placed STOPS are critical. But, you have to have good justification for setting them, that’s all.

 

[cj12]

Here you go. I give you a real time trade buy EUR/USD at 1.314 march contract


CJ

 

[FetteredChinos]

the comedy continues..

it really is panto season...


he's behind you......

 

[cj12]

the comedy continues..

it really is panto season...


he's behind you......

ho no its not!

Change the buy to 1,255 EUR/USD,If hit

 

[wisestguy]

donald ,

too right . this is what he considers " live " , and the funny thing is he still has the gall to pass it off as such.

not to mention , his so called parameters don't make any mention whatsoever of a stop loss for risk control.

I mean I could tell you today to go long the dow @ 10694 or whatever and to sell your house to fund the inevitable margins when the markets tanks on you . then eventually when it goes back into the black , tell you to take profits .

yeah , you would have made money , but where's the risk control . you would have been equally as good playing the whole night at a casino with much much less stress.

This self professed " expert " it seems has no concept of risk control . gambling by any other language.

That is if anyone is still awake after reading his " tips " , and the accompanying reams and reams of waffle . you need a PHD in sleepreading .

 

[ChowClown]

Hi CJ,

...daily 123 short setup on EUR...using your method?...target area looks a natural swing low before her next northern run:

P1: 3468
P2: 3138
P3: 3441
Entry: 3359
StopLoss: 3442
CriticalPrice: 3276
Target: 3111

Critical Price hit yesterday for +83.

ho no its not!

Change the buy to 1,255 EUR/USD,If hit

 

[cj12]

ChowClown

Nice to see you still use my 1,2,3 method. In time I will give you the full method PM me with you email.

As for the EUR/USD i said go long at 1,255, stop now at break-even target 1,390

TradeVector I must say you are a very good at writing put me to shame. I feel in you writing you make trading sound very complex.From 14 years of trading the simple little methods works best in my humble opinion

Regards,

CJ