Weekly forecast for S&P 500

[wackypete2]

1215 for me

Peter

 

[Pat494]

Just thinking out loud as it were.

Would it be better if the points scoring system were altered for next year ?

For instance 1 point for correct direction plus 3 points for correct direction and nearest, plus 2 for correct direction and 2nd nearest and plus 1 for correct direction and 3rd nearest

Any views ?

 

[isatrader]

I think just 3 points for first, 2 points for second and 1 point for third would be better?

 

[robster970]

No change IMO. You either win or you don't.

 

[Pat494]

average = 1240
weighted average = 1242
3 up
3 down

good luck all

 

[wackypete2]

No change IMO. You either win or you don't.

I agree. Just keep it simple.

Peter

 

[sj8070]

I think a new points system could be fun! Ur original idea of a reward for at least getting the direction right...

 

[hwsteele]

Been away for a while as I have been doing little in the trading field other than helping a friend through some e-mails and a video or two. A nice big holiday this time of year is always good.

I know I am late for this weeks numbers so I won't bother with that.

I like to keep things simple in execution, like trading, but jazz them up a bit in the statistical area of things.

If it were up to me I would score as follows:

1 point for correct direction.
3 points for closest guess to Friday close number +or -
2 points for second place + or -
1 point for third + or -

I do believe that's about what you had said Pat.

I think that scoring the above way would give a much better idea as to who has been "closer" more.
While someone might have only 1 or 2 wins they may be in the top three almost every time and as such score much higher than the person who just got lucky a time or two with a first place.
Also, while direction is good while trending in a small range market it holds much less value so I think giving a point for the correct direction is a good idea. That way if someone is only a couple of points away but on the "wrong side" they would still score points most likely, just not the one for correct direction.

So that would be my two cents.

 

[Pat494]

Been away for a while as I have been doing little in the trading field other than helping a friend through some e-mails and a video or two. A nice big holiday this time of year is always good.

I know I am late for this weeks numbers so I won't bother with that.

I like to keep things simple in execution, like trading, but jazz them up a bit in the statistical area of things.

If it were up to me I would score as follows:

1 point for correct direction.
3 points for closest guess to Friday close number +or -
2 points for second place + or -
1 point for third + or -

I do believe that's about what you had said Pat.

I think that scoring the above way would give a much better idea as to who has been "closer" more.
While someone might have only 1 or 2 wins they may be in the top three almost every time and as such score much higher than the person who just got lucky a time or two with a first place.
Also, while direction is good while trending in a small range market it holds much less value so I think giving a point for the correct direction is a good idea. That way if someone is only a couple of points away but on the "wrong side" they would still score points most likely, just not the one for correct direction.

So that would be my two cents.

Also my thoughts exactly

 

[Pat494]

For Week Ending Friday 17th December at 1243.9



WINNERS
Pat 494.........12
hwsteele .......6
Gaffs............6
wackypete .....4
N. Rothschild ..2
isatrader.......2
dpinpon ........1
Elitejets ........1
luckyd 1976 ....1
robster970.....1

Although robster970 was the closest human competitor, the acclaims go to isatrader for a second week running, being in the right direction too.
:clap:
It may be of interest to note that the weighted average at 1242 was actually the closest and in the right direction

 

[Pat494]

Another week of small change imho barring war on the Korean peninsula.

so 1248.3 for me

 

[elitejets]

Another doji week or will the end of year tax selling start early?
I am going with 1228

 

[hwsteele]

After a quick look at the weekly charts I believe we will be down slightly to around 1235.
So that's my number...1235.

Unless something big happens this week I don't see much of a move this Christmas Week.

 

[robster970]

1230 for me this week.

 

[TRADEFUTURES]

1275

 

[kbit]

1200....to many people looking long..time for the big guys to scare the bulls

 

[isatrader]

Short week and not a lot of data until Wednesday. New high vs new lows is looking weak and price is 9% above the 200 day SMA, which has been the recent resistance level twice, but think the seasonal rally will happen on light volume before the tax selling comes in the following week.

I’ll go for the top of the channel again at 1251.3

 

[wackypete2]

1256
I don't expect too much this week.

Everyone enjoy the holidays, be safe, and take some time off from the everyday stress of life!

Peter

 

[Pat494]

average = 1240
weighted average = 1245
4 up
4 down

good luck all

 

[Pat494]

Up down or round and round

Have a good Christmas

:clap: