Exactly how do you let the market decide? Volume, volatility?
Way of the Turtle
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Exactly how do you let the market decide? Volume, volatility?
Rhody Trader
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My earlier point was that the Turtles constantly tracked a large number of mostly unrelated markets (different commodities, bond market, currencies, equity indices). In theory they could have had positions on in all of them. The idea behind that wide "diversification" was twofold. One was to ensure sufficient trading opportunities in their timeframe (position trades) as generally speaking at least one of their markets would be in a trend at any given time (while focusing on just one or two could mean they would be out of the markets for long stretches). The other was to protect against major drawdowns on correllated market moves - thought the 1987 crash was problematic in that regard.
wildkactus
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Victor90,
the way I let the market decide is by what is moving (trending either up or down), to work out what to trade, is in my plan, enter on a breakout (I use a swing chart for this), exit when I get stop out by my trailing stop.
Rhody Trader,
I have choosen for now to stick to these two markets until I become comfortable and understand them, then will look to add others like currencies, bonds. I am still on my travel of learning and may be for years to come, I am still only a part timer as well.
As for the turtles tracking a large number of contracts to trade from I Don't know, from what I have read they where limited to what they could trade as set down by the firm, I think it was only a few contracts about 21 in total, as where I track 36 commodities (the Roger's Commodities Index) and the top 100 stocks in the ASX, LSE, HKEX, NYSE.
There is times when there is nothing to trade in these markets, just need to sit and wait, and by reading about the turtles even they had times just sitting and waiting, I guess it is the nature of this type of system, if you want to be in the market all the time, you would need to choose another type of trading system. Then there are times when there is to much to trade and I can not take them all, this is where a lot of work is needed to filter out which trades to take, this I still need to work on and are still developing my filters (volume & support and resistance seam to be the best here) not a big fan of indicators I only use SMA's.
As for trying to defend against drawdowns, as I see it they are part of this style of trading you are going to get them, but you normally get them grouping in one market at a time so this is a time to sit that market out, which in turn limits the drawdowns, from what I can see increased drawdowns are a sign that the market is losing its strength in the trend.
the way I let the market decide is by what is moving (trending either up or down), to work out what to trade, is in my plan, enter on a breakout (I use a swing chart for this), exit when I get stop out by my trailing stop.
Rhody Trader,
I have choosen for now to stick to these two markets until I become comfortable and understand them, then will look to add others like currencies, bonds. I am still on my travel of learning and may be for years to come, I am still only a part timer as well.
As for the turtles tracking a large number of contracts to trade from I Don't know, from what I have read they where limited to what they could trade as set down by the firm, I think it was only a few contracts about 21 in total, as where I track 36 commodities (the Roger's Commodities Index) and the top 100 stocks in the ASX, LSE, HKEX, NYSE.
There is times when there is nothing to trade in these markets, just need to sit and wait, and by reading about the turtles even they had times just sitting and waiting, I guess it is the nature of this type of system, if you want to be in the market all the time, you would need to choose another type of trading system. Then there are times when there is to much to trade and I can not take them all, this is where a lot of work is needed to filter out which trades to take, this I still need to work on and are still developing my filters (volume & support and resistance seam to be the best here) not a big fan of indicators I only use SMA's.
As for trying to defend against drawdowns, as I see it they are part of this style of trading you are going to get them, but you normally get them grouping in one market at a time so this is a time to sit that market out, which in turn limits the drawdowns, from what I can see increased drawdowns are a sign that the market is losing its strength in the trend.
Rhody Trader
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I didn't say they tracked a large number of "contracts". I said "markets".
You're right, though. They had position limits.
wildkactus
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Yes ok, what I should have said was 21 contracts over 5 markets, still not a large spreed accross markets.
Been commodities traders they were only trading the 5, Grains(NYSCCSE), Currencies(CME), Bonds (CBOT), Metals (COMEX), Petro(NYMEX).
But what they did have as you said before was a good spreed in that they kept the correlation between the markets low.
ofurbaldur
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Turtle position trading over 30-40 markets.
You need a large account for this type of trading. $ 1 million would be a good start.
Regards
Baldur
You need a large account for this type of trading. $ 1 million would be a good start.
Regards
Baldur
ofurbaldur
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No would consider it gambling.
The trutle system is designed for massive accounts. Well any trend following system.
You have massive swings in your account. The returns could be 20-40% per year so could the drawdowns.
Are you happy to get 2/4K in profit over a year? You need reliable data and alot of time which will cost a large chunk of that profit.
Lets say you take a crude trade with 2 x average true range. That is how many points? How much would your loss be? At the same you are taking this trade you might be getting signals for other markets, they tend to come at the same time. This type of system you need to stick with the rule to take all trade signals. The ones you might miss might be the large runner. Most of the profit is made up by few large trades per year. Sorry there is alot more to consider.
If you have $10k I would consider on just one market.
Regards
Baldur
Rhody Trader
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It's possible. You just need to realize that it's not a very active system. You could spend a lot of time in drawdowns. You could have no trades at all for lengthy periods. In other words, you need to have a multi-year perspective on your time to be able to handle a Turtle type of approach.
Yeah, my plan is to put 10K in a account and just trade it by the rules, and after 3 years i will decide if i should contniue it.
wildkactus
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Victor90,
You are right on with your time frame, this type of trading needs I think at least 2 years to see the profitablity in it, as you can go months with no trades or just losing trades.
Look at trading a single index future like the FTSE100, if you want a few more options then use the FTSE100 Index and trade the CFD's for these companies.
When I very first started to trade the system I just used the SPI200 in AUS for my test subjuct, once I saw it worked then I moved to the current markets I am trading now.
Anyway all the best for your turtle trading.
You are right on with your time frame, this type of trading needs I think at least 2 years to see the profitablity in it, as you can go months with no trades or just losing trades.
Look at trading a single index future like the FTSE100, if you want a few more options then use the FTSE100 Index and trade the CFD's for these companies.
When I very first started to trade the system I just used the SPI200 in AUS for my test subjuct, once I saw it worked then I moved to the current markets I am trading now.
Anyway all the best for your turtle trading.
ofurbaldur
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I don’t know if you guys are aware that the worst performing futures contract was index futures over most years.
You are going to trade a single market. What are the odds you pick the right one?
Even when you trade a portfolio of 30-40 just by missing a trade or two could mean the difference the year being positive or negative.
All trades must be taken was a strict rule. No input from the user about his feeling.
The turtle system was very profitable during high inflation periods few decades ago.
Curtis is selling a program called tradingblox, you can use that to back test and see the results for the previous years and see if this is for you.
It is possible to win the lottery, very unlikely.
Good luck
You are going to trade a single market. What are the odds you pick the right one?
Even when you trade a portfolio of 30-40 just by missing a trade or two could mean the difference the year being positive or negative.
All trades must be taken was a strict rule. No input from the user about his feeling.
The turtle system was very profitable during high inflation periods few decades ago.
Curtis is selling a program called tradingblox, you can use that to back test and see the results for the previous years and see if this is for you.
It is possible to win the lottery, very unlikely.
Good luck
Why be so negative? I know of an AUS system (for austr. stocks - also US was traded) being run publicly down under incl AMIBROKER and METASTOCK code. Profitable since many years. Another one on a german board incl. amibroker and wealthlab coding.
Kind regards
Hittfeld
Kind regards
Hittfeld
davedavethetrader
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im amazed, the way of the turtle is ONE OF THE WORST trading books ever written, it should be 3 pages long, everything in it that is worth reading has been lifted from other far more informative books. If curtis was so great he wouldnt have gone skint. theres no point buying it, the sytems on the web for free. it made me cringe reading it. unless youve not read many trading books, dont even bother. you would have heard it all some where else first. if its one of your first trading books, fine, you'll learn something, just dont in time to come, read other books and think they stole from him!!!!
If you want to trade, you have to LEARN to trade, not copy some system from a book. you need to make YOUR system/edge just that, YOURS. only way. dont read books hoping to find THE answer, read them to find the questions...
and while im ranting....
if you want become a trader, dont do it in your spare time. if you just wish to participate,have a bit of fun, be mentally stimulated etc.... on behalf of all the pro's, thanks for the cash.
If you want to trade, you have to LEARN to trade, not copy some system from a book. you need to make YOUR system/edge just that, YOURS. only way. dont read books hoping to find THE answer, read them to find the questions...
and while im ranting....
if you want become a trader, dont do it in your spare time. if you just wish to participate,have a bit of fun, be mentally stimulated etc.... on behalf of all the pro's, thanks for the cash.
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rags2riches
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Why not? Use the concepts, tweak it and demo your tweaked system.
wildkactus
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I can't see why not, I think any market is tradable with this system, you may need to modify it a little but that's the fun part of learning any new market.
Iam going to belooking into currencies shortly (next 6 months) to add to my tradable markets.
Rhody Trader
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With all due respect, this is one of the more arrogant and narrowminded posts I've seen in a while. I agree that if your intent is to actually make sustained profits you need to take trading seriously and treat it professionally like a business. I do, however, agree that only full-time traders make money. I personally have done much better in my "spare time" trading/investing than in day-trading. But that's just me. Each trader needs to pick out his/her own best timeframe.
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