Walid Salah Eldin's Market Analysis
- Thread starter Walid Salah Eldin
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arigoldman
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Good move to the upside.
Walid Salah Eldin
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Over the short term, it looks in need to dive to correct its recent rising wave from 1.4051, while the main resistance is still standing at 1.4666.
Take Care
Take Care
Walid Salah Eldin
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The cable is showing its downside acceleration again, after failing to maintain a place above 1.45.
It can only try now to hold longer above 1.42. while its next supporting level is still standing at 1.4051
Have a good day
Take Care
It can only try now to hold longer above 1.42. while its next supporting level is still standing at 1.4051
Have a good day
Take Care
Walid Salah Eldin
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I hope that i was very accurate!
Have a good day and nice new week
Take Care
Have a good day and nice new week
Take Care
fxstrategist
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Oil
Double top on oil WTI around the 42.00 level and the 200 day EMA. The price may try to go back down from here.
Double top on oil WTI around the 42.00 level and the 200 day EMA. The price may try to go back down from here.
Walid Salah Eldin
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Walid Salah Eldin
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Brexit: Is it only a stepdown or a meltdown?
First, we should fully respect the British choice which came as a results of the voters' beliefs. These voters may not economic specialists or markets specialists but they are specialists in their benefits.
The split was not also an accident. it has been the normal ending of series of exceptional situations of UK which could not find a way to lead the EU.
So, its choice to have always special case in EU was always its way to live in EU.
It was not the refugees matter only, the sterling, the financial policies, The EU leaders nominations or... it was really the normal ending of UK membership in EU.
But now after UK has said its word, the turn now is on EU. I wait now to hear from Merkel and Hollande that "it is to be strong EU or not to be".
I want to hear from them that we will go on strongly and the days will prove that we are right and our will to be united is vital for us all and it is not the end of EU to watch UK out of it.
Building on these beliefs can prevent financial meltdown in EU markets and also other related markets and can also reinforce the EU political situation which is facing critical period, After losing EU.
The political reaction is very important at this moment after ending of long period of watching, while any monetary or financial action can only be temporary.
France which has direct trade lines with UK can face now considerable negative economic implications because of the Brexit, while Germany can find no way but to give more concessions to lead EU economically.
While UK finds itself in an early stage to initiate policies of its new trade relationships with EU and other farer parts of the world on its new control to keep its factories running competing EU.
It's a thing as it is easy as it is complicated for UK.
Anyway, I wait to hear from Merkel and Hollande, before predicting anything.
Walid Salah Eldin
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
First, we should fully respect the British choice which came as a results of the voters' beliefs. These voters may not economic specialists or markets specialists but they are specialists in their benefits.
The split was not also an accident. it has been the normal ending of series of exceptional situations of UK which could not find a way to lead the EU.
So, its choice to have always special case in EU was always its way to live in EU.
It was not the refugees matter only, the sterling, the financial policies, The EU leaders nominations or... it was really the normal ending of UK membership in EU.
But now after UK has said its word, the turn now is on EU. I wait now to hear from Merkel and Hollande that "it is to be strong EU or not to be".
I want to hear from them that we will go on strongly and the days will prove that we are right and our will to be united is vital for us all and it is not the end of EU to watch UK out of it.
Building on these beliefs can prevent financial meltdown in EU markets and also other related markets and can also reinforce the EU political situation which is facing critical period, After losing EU.
The political reaction is very important at this moment after ending of long period of watching, while any monetary or financial action can only be temporary.
France which has direct trade lines with UK can face now considerable negative economic implications because of the Brexit, while Germany can find no way but to give more concessions to lead EU economically.
While UK finds itself in an early stage to initiate policies of its new trade relationships with EU and other farer parts of the world on its new control to keep its factories running competing EU.
It's a thing as it is easy as it is complicated for UK.
Anyway, I wait to hear from Merkel and Hollande, before predicting anything.
Walid Salah Eldin
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Pat494
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It largely comes down to - Can Germany financially support the PIIGS ?
If they won't really try, but just rely on handouts the EU might as well admit it is a failure and pack up.
This unique situation might call for some expulsions from the EU to save the rest. The balloon is sinking and so some must be sacrificed to save the rest. This is a very post Imperialist situation. Only a matter of time before the basket case countries bite the hands that feed them.
If they won't really try, but just rely on handouts the EU might as well admit it is a failure and pack up.
This unique situation might call for some expulsions from the EU to save the rest. The balloon is sinking and so some must be sacrificed to save the rest. This is a very post Imperialist situation. Only a matter of time before the basket case countries bite the hands that feed them.
Walid Salah Eldin
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The US equities are facing acceleration of the downside pressure
• Technically, S&P 500 has become more vulnerable to the downside over the short term opened to meet 2300 psychological level, after forming a lower high at 2390.01 on Mar. 15 below its all times high at 2400.98 which has been formed on Mar. 1.
• The market participants became unsure of the impact of the reflation plans, while the probability of executing them is coming down, as the new Administration facing rising criticizing in the congress.
• While the higher interest rate outlook in US has become a clear threat to these financial stimulating plans,
• As the Fed's fund rate rising direction can erode their influences showing that it is not the best time to take such plans by this cost which can reach 1tr USD as Trump announced previously.
• EURUSD has become boosted by the probability of watching rising of the deposit rate before ending of the ECB's QE, After the ECB's member Nowotny indicated that there could be raising of the deposit rate, before its main refinancing rate, while the QE is still working.
• GBPUSD could easily be underpinned by rising of the interest rate outlook in UK, after the inflation data over the consuming level in UK has shown rising of the CPI yearly by 2.3% last February which is the fastest pace of rising since September 2013, while the consensus was referring to increasing by only 2.1% after ascending by only 1.8% in January.
• While BOE target is only 2% yearly and it has not been seen since December 2013.
• The MPC has voted last week 8 to 1 to keep the interest rate unchanged at its 0.25% historical low as it has been since last Aug. 4.
• As Kristen Forbes voted in favor of hiking the interest rate by 0.25% for containing the inflation pressure amid rising of the wages and increasing of the energy prices, while the British pound is still depressed by the Brexit voting consequences.
• WTI came under pressure to be trade near $48.15 per barrel during the beginning of the Asian session, after API figure has show rising by 4.5m barrels.
• While the energy market is waiting today for EIA Crude Oil Stocks change to show rising by only 2.8m barrels after decreasing by 0.237m barrels in the week ending on Mar. 10 drove the total inventory down to 528,156 from 528,393 a week earlier.
• However the prices are still boosted by Saudi Energy Minister Mohamed EL Faleh's comment that the OPEC could extend its agreement to reduce output, if stockpiles remain above the five-year average.
• After the Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo The General Secretary of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has previously said the same in London oil Forum last month.
With this risk aversion sentiment, The gold kept its ascending pace up in its fifth day above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading 1201.
After the gold had formed a higher low at $1195, above its previous low which has been formed on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 which has previously formed above last Dec. 15 bottom at $1122.85.
The Gold is now above its daily SMA50, after surpassing its daily SMA100 but it is still under pressure over longer range by being below its daily SMA200, as it formed a peak with meeting with it on last Feb. 27 at $1263.83.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in a higher place inside the neutral region reading now 62.353.
Also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the overbought region above 80 at 95.245 leading until now to the upside its signal line which is at 92.333.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1222.38, Daily SMA100 @ $1206.78 and Daily SMA200 @ $1260.95
S&R:
S1: $1195.80
S2: $1180.86
S3: $1145.82
R1: $1263.83
R2: $1292.87
R3: $1336.53
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
• Technically, S&P 500 has become more vulnerable to the downside over the short term opened to meet 2300 psychological level, after forming a lower high at 2390.01 on Mar. 15 below its all times high at 2400.98 which has been formed on Mar. 1.
• The market participants became unsure of the impact of the reflation plans, while the probability of executing them is coming down, as the new Administration facing rising criticizing in the congress.
• While the higher interest rate outlook in US has become a clear threat to these financial stimulating plans,
• As the Fed's fund rate rising direction can erode their influences showing that it is not the best time to take such plans by this cost which can reach 1tr USD as Trump announced previously.
• EURUSD has become boosted by the probability of watching rising of the deposit rate before ending of the ECB's QE, After the ECB's member Nowotny indicated that there could be raising of the deposit rate, before its main refinancing rate, while the QE is still working.
• GBPUSD could easily be underpinned by rising of the interest rate outlook in UK, after the inflation data over the consuming level in UK has shown rising of the CPI yearly by 2.3% last February which is the fastest pace of rising since September 2013, while the consensus was referring to increasing by only 2.1% after ascending by only 1.8% in January.
• While BOE target is only 2% yearly and it has not been seen since December 2013.
• The MPC has voted last week 8 to 1 to keep the interest rate unchanged at its 0.25% historical low as it has been since last Aug. 4.
• As Kristen Forbes voted in favor of hiking the interest rate by 0.25% for containing the inflation pressure amid rising of the wages and increasing of the energy prices, while the British pound is still depressed by the Brexit voting consequences.
• WTI came under pressure to be trade near $48.15 per barrel during the beginning of the Asian session, after API figure has show rising by 4.5m barrels.
• While the energy market is waiting today for EIA Crude Oil Stocks change to show rising by only 2.8m barrels after decreasing by 0.237m barrels in the week ending on Mar. 10 drove the total inventory down to 528,156 from 528,393 a week earlier.
• However the prices are still boosted by Saudi Energy Minister Mohamed EL Faleh's comment that the OPEC could extend its agreement to reduce output, if stockpiles remain above the five-year average.
• After the Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo The General Secretary of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has previously said the same in London oil Forum last month.
With this risk aversion sentiment, The gold kept its ascending pace up in its fifth day above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading 1201.
After the gold had formed a higher low at $1195, above its previous low which has been formed on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 which has previously formed above last Dec. 15 bottom at $1122.85.
The Gold is now above its daily SMA50, after surpassing its daily SMA100 but it is still under pressure over longer range by being below its daily SMA200, as it formed a peak with meeting with it on last Feb. 27 at $1263.83.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in a higher place inside the neutral region reading now 62.353.
Also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the overbought region above 80 at 95.245 leading until now to the upside its signal line which is at 92.333.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1222.38, Daily SMA100 @ $1206.78 and Daily SMA200 @ $1260.95
S&R:
S1: $1195.80
S2: $1180.86
S3: $1145.82
R1: $1263.83
R2: $1292.87
R3: $1336.53
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
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28th March 2017 - EURUSD became well-buoyed
• After Trump health care bill loss, it is hard to believe that there can be easy tax reforms in US, as these tax reforms can drive the US budget deficit higher with no compensating from eliminating Obamacare.
• The US Equities outlook is not bright as it has been before because of the lost reflation hopes.
• The industrial commodities such as the Iron ore and copper as well came under selling pressure, as the financial stimulus plans of Trump are in serious check right now.
• The greenback came under pressure as this lower US economic outlook drives the interest rate outlook down too and lowers the inflation pressure potential.
• The US treasuries yields came under pressure with this current dovish sentiment which pushed the investors' trust in buying these notes up.
• EURUSD could easily have a higher place with these growing worries about the economic outlook in US, While the cheeriness of watching higher growth rates and inflation rates in EU is still on.
• The data which came out from EU yesterday have shown that March Germane IFO business climate rose to 112.3 which is its highest level since July 2011.
• While the loans to the EU household sector rose yearly by 2.3% in last February to Eur5.75 trillion which is the highest since February 2011.
• We have seen also last week EU flash PMI of March rising to 56.2 which is the highest since April 2011, after 55.4 in February, while the market median consensus was referring to decreasing to 55.3.
• It's important to watch too by the end of the week the flash reading of EU CPI of March which is expected to show rising by 1.8% year on year, after increasing in February by 2% which has not been seen since December 2013.
• You need to focus too on the Core figure of it which is expected to highlight increasing by 0.9% yearly, as it has been in January and December.
• As meanwhile, The core figure became more important to the market participants, after Draghi had said several times recently before the EU parliament and after the recent ECB 2 meetings that the current rising of the inflation rate is mainly because of the oil prices yearly increasing.
• Politically, The Single currency could be boosted also from another side by the loss of the polarization in Netherland and the progress of Merkel's popularity in Germany especially, after her meeting with Trump and Ardogan's criticism to her policies which are looking very suitable in Germany for dealing with him.
• Merkel's CDU ruling party could accomplish unexpected success in the south west of Germany gaining 40.7% of Saarland votes, while its main competitor party SPD gained only 29.6% and the right wing party AFD which has nationalization and population tendencies gained only 6.2%.
• Technically, EURUSD could gain momentum, after surpassing last Feb. 2 high at 1.0828 and last Dec. 8 high at 1.0873
• After forming series of higher lows above 1.0340 which has been reached on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
• EURUSD could form a second bottom at 1.0493, before having higher lows at 1.0525, 1.06, 1.0719 and 1.0760 which drove this pair to reach 1.0906 yesterday.
• By reaching 1.0906, the pair could have a place above its daily SMA200 but it retreated to be traded near 1.0960 below this average in its 18th day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.0754.
• EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading 66.336.
• Its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region at 76.225 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 74.419.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.0673, Daily SMA100 @ 1.0631 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.0880
S&R:
S1: 1.0760
S2: 1.0719
S3: 1.0600
R1: 1.0906
R2: 1.0953
R3: 1.0000
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
• After Trump health care bill loss, it is hard to believe that there can be easy tax reforms in US, as these tax reforms can drive the US budget deficit higher with no compensating from eliminating Obamacare.
• The US Equities outlook is not bright as it has been before because of the lost reflation hopes.
• The industrial commodities such as the Iron ore and copper as well came under selling pressure, as the financial stimulus plans of Trump are in serious check right now.
• The greenback came under pressure as this lower US economic outlook drives the interest rate outlook down too and lowers the inflation pressure potential.
• The US treasuries yields came under pressure with this current dovish sentiment which pushed the investors' trust in buying these notes up.
• EURUSD could easily have a higher place with these growing worries about the economic outlook in US, While the cheeriness of watching higher growth rates and inflation rates in EU is still on.
• The data which came out from EU yesterday have shown that March Germane IFO business climate rose to 112.3 which is its highest level since July 2011.
• While the loans to the EU household sector rose yearly by 2.3% in last February to Eur5.75 trillion which is the highest since February 2011.
• We have seen also last week EU flash PMI of March rising to 56.2 which is the highest since April 2011, after 55.4 in February, while the market median consensus was referring to decreasing to 55.3.
• It's important to watch too by the end of the week the flash reading of EU CPI of March which is expected to show rising by 1.8% year on year, after increasing in February by 2% which has not been seen since December 2013.
• You need to focus too on the Core figure of it which is expected to highlight increasing by 0.9% yearly, as it has been in January and December.
• As meanwhile, The core figure became more important to the market participants, after Draghi had said several times recently before the EU parliament and after the recent ECB 2 meetings that the current rising of the inflation rate is mainly because of the oil prices yearly increasing.
• Politically, The Single currency could be boosted also from another side by the loss of the polarization in Netherland and the progress of Merkel's popularity in Germany especially, after her meeting with Trump and Ardogan's criticism to her policies which are looking very suitable in Germany for dealing with him.
• Merkel's CDU ruling party could accomplish unexpected success in the south west of Germany gaining 40.7% of Saarland votes, while its main competitor party SPD gained only 29.6% and the right wing party AFD which has nationalization and population tendencies gained only 6.2%.
• Technically, EURUSD could gain momentum, after surpassing last Feb. 2 high at 1.0828 and last Dec. 8 high at 1.0873
• After forming series of higher lows above 1.0340 which has been reached on the third day of this year to be the lowest level since December 2002.
• EURUSD could form a second bottom at 1.0493, before having higher lows at 1.0525, 1.06, 1.0719 and 1.0760 which drove this pair to reach 1.0906 yesterday.
• By reaching 1.0906, the pair could have a place above its daily SMA200 but it retreated to be traded near 1.0960 below this average in its 18th day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.0754.
• EURUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading 66.336.
• Its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region at 76.225 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 74.419.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.0673, Daily SMA100 @ 1.0631 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.0880
S&R:
S1: 1.0760
S2: 1.0719
S3: 1.0600
R1: 1.0906
R2: 1.0953
R3: 1.0000
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
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It's just the beginning
There are lots of hanging issues between UK and EU.
EU will never make it easy to UK to separate.
UK needs to end the separation soon to start new trading deals freely with more offsetting to EU.
Politically, EU wants to make UK an example to who want to leave.
The nationality and the free movement will be the same for EU-the same for UK.
EU criticism to the British pound strength can reinforce it, after its dramatic slide last June and last October.
Monetarily, The interest rate outlook can be bullish for both UK and EU supporting the British pound and the single currency.
Financially, UK readiness to pay off to EU can end everything smoothly and i see UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond has taken into his account this probability to facilitate the separation, when he discussed the budget of 2017-2018.
Take Care
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
There are lots of hanging issues between UK and EU.
EU will never make it easy to UK to separate.
UK needs to end the separation soon to start new trading deals freely with more offsetting to EU.
Politically, EU wants to make UK an example to who want to leave.
The nationality and the free movement will be the same for EU-the same for UK.
EU criticism to the British pound strength can reinforce it, after its dramatic slide last June and last October.
Monetarily, The interest rate outlook can be bullish for both UK and EU supporting the British pound and the single currency.
Financially, UK readiness to pay off to EU can end everything smoothly and i see UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond has taken into his account this probability to facilitate the separation, when he discussed the budget of 2017-2018.
Take Care
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
Walid Salah Eldin
Active member
- Messages
- 223
- Likes
- 2
6th April 2017 - The Fed's preparing the market for tightening its balance sheet
The talking about the Fed's Balance sheet can gather momentum ahead containing the market sentiment.
As the Fed's last meeting minutes of last March have shown serious talking this time about unwinding the Fed's portfolio of treasuries and mortgage backed securities, not just reference to this holding as what has happened in the previous meetings minutes.
The Fed's balance sheet is containing now $4.5 trillion, After 3 Fed's QE rounds for propping up the US economy because of the credit crisis.
As The Fed has kept until now the principal of repurchasing these financial securities it holds on their maturities.
I should mention here also that the Fed has made what's named an Operation Twist program in late 2011 and 2012 to stimulate the economy by buying longer term Treasuries selling some of its holding of short term treasuries for pressing on the long term treasuries yields in the secondary market.
The operation twist has been taken place in 2 rounds. The first has been from September 2011 till June of 2012 and its value was $400 billion, while The second has been from July 2012 to December 2012 and its value was $267 billion.
The Fed’s now holding $426 billion of Treasuries maturity in 2018 and also $352 billion for 2019.
The Fed can manage to reverse this twist by lower its Bonds maturities or stopping its reinvestment in the US debt.
But The FOMC's members talking currently about that crucial subject is still looking to the market participants in a preliminary phase for testing the market reactions.
While this tightening action can be later looking a must during the Fed's current tightening cycle, after the credit crisis and it should be done by a gradual way can be prematurely expected.
We have seen last week how Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley has said that "U.S. government policy may further boost the economy and eventually add fuel to an inflation rate is already approaching the central bank’s official target"
Which means that the Fed's is taking into its account the inflation pressure which can result from the waited reflation in US new administration.
The Fed Bank of Boston President Rosengren has also signaled a week ago that 4 Fed fund hikes by 0.25% in 2017 may be needed to cool the overheating economy.
The Fed Bank of San Francisco John Williams came out to be in line with Rosengren saying that it would not be ruled out to see more than three hikes this year.
Even The Fed's chief Yellen has said last week in her text speech in Washington that the economy overall is recovering, the inflation is going up to the 2% Fed's yearly target and the job market has improved substantially since the recession
She has managed to take the attention away from the monetary policy role to stimulate the economy which is setting back by saying that "for driving down the elevated joblessness in poor and minority communities, we just need now better education and training"
While the markets are watching currently very impressive positive signs can encourage the Fed's to go on its tightening cycle, such as Mar US ADP Employment change which has shown yesterday soaring by 263k, while the consensus was referring to increasing by 187k, after adding 245k in February.
And also Mar Consumer Confidence Index which has shown last week rising to 125.6 which is its highest level since December 2000.
The gold is still keeping its trading now near $1255 in its sixteenth day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading 1243.70.
After the gold had formed a higher low at $1239.68 above its low at $1195.80 which has come after forming a higher bottom on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 to come by its turn above its previously formed bottom on last Dec. 15 at $1122.85.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading now 62.529.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region at 76.301 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 71.742.
The Gold is now above its daily SMA50, after surpassing its daily SMA100 but it is still in intersection with its daily SMA200, below its peak at $1263.83 which has been formed with meeting with this average on last Feb. 27.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1232.73, Daily SMA100 @ $1204.79 and Daily SMA200 @ $1258.84
S&R:
S3: $1239.68
S2: $1195.80
S3: $1180.86
R1: $1263.83
R2: $1292.87
R3: $1336.53
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The talking about the Fed's Balance sheet can gather momentum ahead containing the market sentiment.
As the Fed's last meeting minutes of last March have shown serious talking this time about unwinding the Fed's portfolio of treasuries and mortgage backed securities, not just reference to this holding as what has happened in the previous meetings minutes.
The Fed's balance sheet is containing now $4.5 trillion, After 3 Fed's QE rounds for propping up the US economy because of the credit crisis.
As The Fed has kept until now the principal of repurchasing these financial securities it holds on their maturities.
I should mention here also that the Fed has made what's named an Operation Twist program in late 2011 and 2012 to stimulate the economy by buying longer term Treasuries selling some of its holding of short term treasuries for pressing on the long term treasuries yields in the secondary market.
The operation twist has been taken place in 2 rounds. The first has been from September 2011 till June of 2012 and its value was $400 billion, while The second has been from July 2012 to December 2012 and its value was $267 billion.
The Fed’s now holding $426 billion of Treasuries maturity in 2018 and also $352 billion for 2019.
The Fed can manage to reverse this twist by lower its Bonds maturities or stopping its reinvestment in the US debt.
But The FOMC's members talking currently about that crucial subject is still looking to the market participants in a preliminary phase for testing the market reactions.
While this tightening action can be later looking a must during the Fed's current tightening cycle, after the credit crisis and it should be done by a gradual way can be prematurely expected.
We have seen last week how Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley has said that "U.S. government policy may further boost the economy and eventually add fuel to an inflation rate is already approaching the central bank’s official target"
Which means that the Fed's is taking into its account the inflation pressure which can result from the waited reflation in US new administration.
The Fed Bank of Boston President Rosengren has also signaled a week ago that 4 Fed fund hikes by 0.25% in 2017 may be needed to cool the overheating economy.
The Fed Bank of San Francisco John Williams came out to be in line with Rosengren saying that it would not be ruled out to see more than three hikes this year.
Even The Fed's chief Yellen has said last week in her text speech in Washington that the economy overall is recovering, the inflation is going up to the 2% Fed's yearly target and the job market has improved substantially since the recession
She has managed to take the attention away from the monetary policy role to stimulate the economy which is setting back by saying that "for driving down the elevated joblessness in poor and minority communities, we just need now better education and training"
While the markets are watching currently very impressive positive signs can encourage the Fed's to go on its tightening cycle, such as Mar US ADP Employment change which has shown yesterday soaring by 263k, while the consensus was referring to increasing by 187k, after adding 245k in February.
And also Mar Consumer Confidence Index which has shown last week rising to 125.6 which is its highest level since December 2000.
The gold is still keeping its trading now near $1255 in its sixteenth day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading 1243.70.
After the gold had formed a higher low at $1239.68 above its low at $1195.80 which has come after forming a higher bottom on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 to come by its turn above its previously formed bottom on last Dec. 15 at $1122.85.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading now 62.529.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in the neutral region at 76.301 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 71.742.
The Gold is now above its daily SMA50, after surpassing its daily SMA100 but it is still in intersection with its daily SMA200, below its peak at $1263.83 which has been formed with meeting with this average on last Feb. 27.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1232.73, Daily SMA100 @ $1204.79 and Daily SMA200 @ $1258.84
S&R:
S3: $1239.68
S2: $1195.80
S3: $1180.86
R1: $1263.83
R2: $1292.87
R3: $1336.53
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
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Walid Salah Eldin
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7th April 2017 - Trump's reaction is still overwhelming the markets
The greenback has watched today volatility versus the major currency following the weaker than expected release of Mar US non-farm payrolls which have shown adding only 98k of jobs, while the consensus was referring to gaining 180k, after increasing by 235k in February had been revised down today to 219k.
In the same time, The US labor report of March has shown decreasing of the unemployment rate to 4.5% which has been its lowest since May 2007, while the market was waiting for no change to be at 4.7% as it has been in February.
The average earning per hour rose yearly by 2.7%, after rising by 2.8% in February show nor further acceleration of the wages inflationary pressure in March.
The US dollar has fallen across the broad following the release of this report but it has rebounded again to be where as it has been before it versus the Japanese yen at 110.70 and also EURUSD came back to be traded near 1.0645 following peaking at 1.0660.
But USDCAD has bounced up to 1.3380 only until now after falling to 1.3342 following this report which came accompanied with the release of March Canadian labor report which has shown adding 19.5k of jobs, while the consensus was pointing to adding only 5k, after increasing by 15.3k in February.
While the Gold is still boosted by Trump's military reaction to the Syrian government using of chemical weapons against civilians.
The markets are still evaluating the consequences which can result from this reaction, while most expectations are still referring to avoiding direct clashes between the US troops and the Russian troops in Syria anyway.
While Trump's reaction has been welcomed by EU, UK , Turkey, Persian gulf Arab countries and the Syrian opposition militias which are looking for longer hitting of the governmental targets.
Trump winning of the presidency in US on last Nov. 9 which has been read, as good for Gold " for his aggressive reactions" and bad of the US dollar "for his criticism of its value" has been materialized today with this reaction.
XAUUSD rose to $1336.33 per ounce following his winning of the presidency, before coming down to $1122.85 on the reflation optimism and the higher interest rate outlook in US.
Now The gold is above its daily SMA200, after surpassing its peak at $1263.83 which has been formed with meeting with this average on last Feb. 27.
The gold as well could contain the full falling from $1263.83 to $1195.80 with today higher momentum which pushed it up to $1270.50 until now.
The Gold is now in its seventeenth day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1243.70, after forming a higher low at $1239.68 above its low at $1195.80 which has come after forming a higher bottom on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 to come by its turn above its previously formed bottom on last Dec. 15 at $1122.85.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading now 66.325.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the neutral region at 73.439 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 72.333.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1234.16, Daily SMA100 @ $1205.17 and Daily SMA200 @ $1258.56
S&R:
S3: $1239.68
S2: $1195.80
S3: $1180.86
R1: $1292.87
R2: $1336.53
R3: $1345.50
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The greenback has watched today volatility versus the major currency following the weaker than expected release of Mar US non-farm payrolls which have shown adding only 98k of jobs, while the consensus was referring to gaining 180k, after increasing by 235k in February had been revised down today to 219k.
In the same time, The US labor report of March has shown decreasing of the unemployment rate to 4.5% which has been its lowest since May 2007, while the market was waiting for no change to be at 4.7% as it has been in February.
The average earning per hour rose yearly by 2.7%, after rising by 2.8% in February show nor further acceleration of the wages inflationary pressure in March.
The US dollar has fallen across the broad following the release of this report but it has rebounded again to be where as it has been before it versus the Japanese yen at 110.70 and also EURUSD came back to be traded near 1.0645 following peaking at 1.0660.
But USDCAD has bounced up to 1.3380 only until now after falling to 1.3342 following this report which came accompanied with the release of March Canadian labor report which has shown adding 19.5k of jobs, while the consensus was pointing to adding only 5k, after increasing by 15.3k in February.
While the Gold is still boosted by Trump's military reaction to the Syrian government using of chemical weapons against civilians.
The markets are still evaluating the consequences which can result from this reaction, while most expectations are still referring to avoiding direct clashes between the US troops and the Russian troops in Syria anyway.
While Trump's reaction has been welcomed by EU, UK , Turkey, Persian gulf Arab countries and the Syrian opposition militias which are looking for longer hitting of the governmental targets.
Trump winning of the presidency in US on last Nov. 9 which has been read, as good for Gold " for his aggressive reactions" and bad of the US dollar "for his criticism of its value" has been materialized today with this reaction.
XAUUSD rose to $1336.33 per ounce following his winning of the presidency, before coming down to $1122.85 on the reflation optimism and the higher interest rate outlook in US.
Now The gold is above its daily SMA200, after surpassing its peak at $1263.83 which has been formed with meeting with this average on last Feb. 27.
The gold as well could contain the full falling from $1263.83 to $1195.80 with today higher momentum which pushed it up to $1270.50 until now.
The Gold is now in its seventeenth day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1243.70, after forming a higher low at $1239.68 above its low at $1195.80 which has come after forming a higher bottom on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 to come by its turn above its previously formed bottom on last Dec. 15 at $1122.85.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading now 66.325.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the neutral region at 73.439 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 72.333.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1234.16, Daily SMA100 @ $1205.17 and Daily SMA200 @ $1258.56
S&R:
S3: $1239.68
S2: $1195.80
S3: $1180.86
R1: $1292.87
R2: $1336.53
R3: $1345.50
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
Attachments
Walid Salah Eldin
Active member
- Messages
- 223
- Likes
- 2
12th April 2017 - Safe haven resurgent demand, before Tillerson's Moscow visit
The risk-off sentiment could gather more momentum this week ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Moscow which has become mainly to convince the Russian side to stop supporting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime as he said in Italy during the foreign ministers meeting of G7 in Italy.
This visit comes following series of aggressive jawboning between the 2 sides, after chemical attack against civilians in Syria drove Trump to take a military reaction against the Syrian government.
Before taking his military reaction, Trump said that "Assad has crossed the red line and all the lines"!
During this week in an accompanied responding Russia and Iran said that US has crossed the Red Line by its illegal military reaction which came without investigation reminding the world by its military attack against Iraq in 2003 for fake chemical weapons existence in Iraq.
The new US administration has indicated this week too before this visit that there could be also reaction against the exploding barrels randomized using in Syria against civilians, after last week US missiles attack on Syrian airbases.
Russia said that there could be targeting of the south of Damascus by US.
The markets are still evaluating the consequences which can result from this conflict, while most expectations are still referring to avoiding of direct clashes between the US troops and the Russian troops in Syria anyway.
Trump's reaction has been welcomed by EU, UK , Turkey, Persian gulf Arab countries and the Syrian opposition militias which are looking for longer hitting of the governmental targets.
The situation in the far east is looking also escalating between US and North Korea, after Trump's message on Twitter that "US would solve the problem with North Korea with or without China"
US has moved also naval warships from Australia not to Japan sea but to South Korea directly which means that it is taking attacking position.
I should mention here that Trump winning of the presidency in US on last Nov. 9 has been read as good news for Gold "for his aggressive reactions" and bad of the US dollar "for his criticism of its value" and that what has been materialized later.
The Gold rose to $1336.33 per ounce following his winning of the presidency, before coming down to $1122.85 on the reflation optimism and the higher interest rate outlook in US.
The current dovish market sentiment drove the US treasuries yields down placing US 10 Year note yield below 2.30% on increasing safe haven demand for treasuries.
The Yen as a low yield financing currency could be supported across the broad on usual unwinding of carry trades putting more pressure on Nikkei 225 which is already depressed by the US equities losses.
The Gold could reach in the beginning of today Asian session $1276.30, after yesterday surpass of $1270.50 which stopped it last Friday following the dovish release of Mar US non-farm payrolls which have shown adding only 98k of jobs, while the consensus was referring to gaining 180k.
The gold which could contain its falling to $1195.80 has become underpinned technically further by getting over its daily SMA200, after surpassing its peak at $1263.83 which has been formed during a meeting with this average on last Feb. 27.
The gold is now in its second day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today $1247.10.
After forming another higher low at $1239.68 above its low at $1195.80 which has come after forming a higher bottom on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 to come by its turn above its previously formed bottom on last Dec. 15 at $1122.85.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its overbought area above 70 reading 70.657.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now also its main line in its overbought region above 80 at 80.102 leading to the upside its signal line which is still existing in the neutral region at 62.183.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1237.68, Daily SMA100 @ $1206.71 and Daily SMA200 @ $1257.44
S&R:
S3: $1239.68
S2: $1195.80
S3: $1180.86
R1: $1292.87
R2: $1336.53
R3: $1345.50
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
The risk-off sentiment could gather more momentum this week ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Moscow which has become mainly to convince the Russian side to stop supporting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime as he said in Italy during the foreign ministers meeting of G7 in Italy.
This visit comes following series of aggressive jawboning between the 2 sides, after chemical attack against civilians in Syria drove Trump to take a military reaction against the Syrian government.
Before taking his military reaction, Trump said that "Assad has crossed the red line and all the lines"!
During this week in an accompanied responding Russia and Iran said that US has crossed the Red Line by its illegal military reaction which came without investigation reminding the world by its military attack against Iraq in 2003 for fake chemical weapons existence in Iraq.
The new US administration has indicated this week too before this visit that there could be also reaction against the exploding barrels randomized using in Syria against civilians, after last week US missiles attack on Syrian airbases.
Russia said that there could be targeting of the south of Damascus by US.
The markets are still evaluating the consequences which can result from this conflict, while most expectations are still referring to avoiding of direct clashes between the US troops and the Russian troops in Syria anyway.
Trump's reaction has been welcomed by EU, UK , Turkey, Persian gulf Arab countries and the Syrian opposition militias which are looking for longer hitting of the governmental targets.
The situation in the far east is looking also escalating between US and North Korea, after Trump's message on Twitter that "US would solve the problem with North Korea with or without China"
US has moved also naval warships from Australia not to Japan sea but to South Korea directly which means that it is taking attacking position.
I should mention here that Trump winning of the presidency in US on last Nov. 9 has been read as good news for Gold "for his aggressive reactions" and bad of the US dollar "for his criticism of its value" and that what has been materialized later.
The Gold rose to $1336.33 per ounce following his winning of the presidency, before coming down to $1122.85 on the reflation optimism and the higher interest rate outlook in US.
The current dovish market sentiment drove the US treasuries yields down placing US 10 Year note yield below 2.30% on increasing safe haven demand for treasuries.
The Yen as a low yield financing currency could be supported across the broad on usual unwinding of carry trades putting more pressure on Nikkei 225 which is already depressed by the US equities losses.
The Gold could reach in the beginning of today Asian session $1276.30, after yesterday surpass of $1270.50 which stopped it last Friday following the dovish release of Mar US non-farm payrolls which have shown adding only 98k of jobs, while the consensus was referring to gaining 180k.
The gold which could contain its falling to $1195.80 has become underpinned technically further by getting over its daily SMA200, after surpassing its peak at $1263.83 which has been formed during a meeting with this average on last Feb. 27.
The gold is now in its second day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today $1247.10.
After forming another higher low at $1239.68 above its low at $1195.80 which has come after forming a higher bottom on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 to come by its turn above its previously formed bottom on last Dec. 15 at $1122.85.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside its overbought area above 70 reading 70.657.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now also its main line in its overbought region above 80 at 80.102 leading to the upside its signal line which is still existing in the neutral region at 62.183.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1237.68, Daily SMA100 @ $1206.71 and Daily SMA200 @ $1257.44
S&R:
S3: $1239.68
S2: $1195.80
S3: $1180.86
R1: $1292.87
R2: $1336.53
R3: $1345.50
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends
Walid Salah El Din
Attachments
Last edited:
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