Volume analysis – The Key to the Truth

[Petar Jacimovic]

Hello traders,
Took the lost 0.5% on this one but I opened buy position on USD/JPY at the price of 109.07. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation.

a - Wide spread of the bar in a very high volume but closed well of the low (Sign of strength). Potential stopping volume,

b - Lower spread of the bar but still high volume and the bar closed almost near the top. If there was strong selling, how the next bar can close near the top ? It must be that smart money started with buying.

c - Another supply bar in a high volume but bar again closed in the middle. Another sign of strength.

d - A narrow spread of the bar. The classic test of supply bar in a low volume. Good buy signal.

I am going for at least 1:3 RRR. TP around 110.65. Pay attention on level 109.65.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar

The price actually managed to go to my target but I closed in small lose due to news for JPY.
Anyway, I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4405 with SL around 20 pips. Will try to take 60 pips.

I sold due to the strong sign of weakness in the background and no demand bars later on. Even we got good news for GBP and
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
2.0% 1.7% 1.9%GBP
Claimant Count Change
-2.4K 4.0K 14.7K

Price action showed a strong sign of weakness today, which is a sign that GBP is not ready for buying and smart money selling today.

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Here you go
I am posting you charts on EUR/USD and USD/CAD setups. Both setups are simply trend setups with successful tests of clusters.

TP on USD/CAD set at 1.3105
TP on EUR/USD set at 1.1190

Best Regards,
Petar

 

[be-positive]

Thanks for latest charts, all the best with your target/s (why have you one chart @30 min and other 60 min ?? ) I think you need to show the time and price you entered the trade/s and dont forget your stop/s . You mentioned the other day that you were not a signal service ------ nobody is asking you to do this ??? ---- all we ask is you post up your trades within 30 mins of entry , as doing this I believe it would be fair on yourself and any member who cares to follow this thread.

 

[be-positive]

as an example on present short EU 1.1278 stop -15

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Hello traders,
I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4638.

a - Massive volume spike (buying climax). Notice where the bar closed. It closed in the middle. Weakness when it appears on the up bars, not on the down bars. This is a major sign of weakness after the news.

b - Another sign of weakness. High volume up bar but closed in the middle withing the range of the bars bar.

c - Bullish bar, almost like a doji in a volume lower than previous 2 bars. No buying pressure.

My advice is to sell on pullbacks. TP around 1.4563.
The risk in setup 1%.

Petar

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Hello traders,
I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4638.

a - Massive volume spike (buying climax). Notice where the bar closed. It closed in the middle. Weakness when it appears on the up bars, not on the down bars. This is a major sign of weakness after the news.

b - Another sign of weakness. High volume up bar but closed in the middle withing the range of the bars bar.

c - Bullish bar, almost like a doji in a volume lower than previous 2 bars. No buying pressure.

My advice is to sell on pullbacks. TP around 1.4563.
The risk in setup 1%.

Petar

Closed GBP/USD at 1.4596. +1% today
I opened short term position on USD/JPY at 109.86. Will post chart with an explanation later...

Petar

 

[Camel Salesman]

Petar great thread and I've finally met someone who trades the same way! I also incorporate VSA with the Wyckoff principles and have been for years. Good on you for sharing!

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Petar great thread and I've finally met someone who trades the same way! I also incorporate VSA with the Wyckoff principles and have been for years. Good on you for sharing!

Thank you, Camel, and welcome to the thread
Feel free to post your trading ideas so we can discuss together...

Best Regards,
Petar

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Hello traders,
I sold EUR/USD at the price of 1.1216. I market letters on the chart and will go through explanation.

a - Volume spike (buying climax). A wide range of the bar and bar closed near the top. This is a first potential sign of weakness.

b - Another wide range of the bar in a high volume, which tested the resistance at 1.1227. Notice where the bar closed. It closed in the middle. If there is real strength today, how the bar can close in the middle ? It must be that smart traders selling into public buying.

c - Bullish bar in a high volume but we got decreasing in range and the bar again closed in the middle. Since we already saw weakness in the background, this bar can be entry trigger. If you missed this entry, the very next bar was also decent entry (where I took).

The trend is also an important factor. This setup is in sync with the short-term downtrend.

My risk in this setup is only 12 pips and i will try to take 1:3 RRR at least or even more.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

I sold AUD/USD at the price of 0.7227. I market letters on the chart and will go through explanation >


a - up-thrust bar in a high volume. This bar is important because it happened on the highest high at that point. So, supply overcame demand in a high volume. This is for me first sign of weakness. Anyway, since the volume analysis is about the background and analyzing more bars to reveal the puzzle, we need to be patient and wait more. You never want to trade according to 1 bar.

b - Some kind of buying climax. Bullish bar in an ultra high volume. The bar closed almost neutral which is the strong sign for me that weakness is coming.

c - Bullish bar in a high volume but the bar closed in the middle - Weakness has appeared

d - Another up-thrust bar in a high volume. Confirmation that clearly we got weakness and that seller may be in control until the end of the day.

The risk is 20 pips and will try to take at least 1:3RRR.

Try to trade always in sync with a trend because your chances are higher if you go in sync wish short term trend. Lets say you found a downward trend, you looking for an intraday weakness to build selling positions. If there is the strength for example in a downtrend, you need to wait for weakness to appear before any sell position.


If you like analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Hello traders,
Let's start new week and new setups
I saw strength today on EUR/USD around the price of 1.1200. I marked on the chart letters and will go trough explanation >

30M time frame

a - Selling climax (volume spike) and widespread of the bar. This is potential stopping action but we need more evidence, which means more bars to create a decision.

b - Bullish bar in a high volume. Ok, if the previous bearish bar (supply) was from big boys, how the very next bar can close bullish ? This represents potential absorption from the smart money. We need to see a successful test of supply to trigger buy.

c - a Narrow spread of the bar wich closed in the middle in a high volume. This is for me a solid place to build buy position. We already saw strength in the background and this hidden test in a high volume is good confirmation that smart money is interested in upward price.

d - Demand overcame supply in a high volume. Another confirmation of strength.

Sl is around 15 pips and will try to take at least 1:3RRR...

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Hello traders,
Let's start new week and new setups
I saw strength today on EUR/USD around the price of 1.1200. I marked on the chart letters and will go trough explanation >

30M time frame

a - Selling climax (volume spike) and widespread of the bar. This is potential stopping action but we need more evidence, which means more bars to create a decision.

b - Bullish bar in a high volume. Ok, if the previous bearish bar (supply) was from big boys, how the very next bar can close bullish ? This represents potential absorption from the smart money. We need to see a successful test of supply to trigger buy.

c - a Narrow spread of the bar wich closed in the middle in a high volume. This is for me a solid place to build buy position. We already saw strength in the background and this hidden test in a high volume is good confirmation that smart money is interested in upward price.

d - Demand overcame supply in a high volume. Another confirmation of strength.

Sl is around 15 pips and will try to take at least 1:3RRR...

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Closed in little minus and started to sell. Its always better to go with a trend. Sold at the price of 1.1202. Risk about 15 pips and going for at least 1:3 RRR. I found up-thrust in a downtrend and i started to sell.

Best Regards,
Petar

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Hello traders,
I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4575. I am market letters on the chart and will go through explanation >

I used 5 min time frame in this explanation ...

a - Widespread bar in an ultra high volume (buying climax). This is potential stopping action by professional money. The market doesn't like wide spread bars in an ultra high volume. Especially not on the news.

b - The very next bar supply came in on high volume. A sign that something is cooking.

c - Supply overcame demand. Bullish bar but closed in the middle. This is sigh of weakness

d - Narrow spread of the bar in a low volume. This is classic no demand bar. A good selling signal.

Petar

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

Since I saw 2 no supply bar (successful tets). I exited short positions and started to buy at the price of 1.4588. The trend is bullish and since I saw that there is no power from sellers to react I started to buy. Risk is about 25 pips and will try to take at least 1:3RRR.


Petar

 

[be-positive]

petar all the best with this long think it needs to clear 1.4601/2 area ?

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

petar all the best with this long think it needs to clear 1.4601/2 area ?

Thank you

Basically, we don't need to wait for a breakout because it is usually too late. What we need is a successful test of supply on a low volume to confirm further upward continuation. Professionals test the supply and if there are no sellers to react they re-buy. So basically every successful test in a low volume in an upward trend is re-buying. So far it looks good and the upward pressure is too strong.
1.4660 looks like good TP level but lets see.

Keep in mind the trend is very important. Without trend, you have less chance to succeed.



Petar

 

[Petar Jacimovic]

I established sell on AUD/USD. Again, strong downward trend and few up-thrust bar confirm weakness on AUD/USD.

Also, I found intraday supply trendline which held successfully.
Risk is about 15 pips and will try to take at least 1:3 RRR.

Tp around 0.7110.

 

[be-positive]

afternoon ,
just curious petar ---you say (Keep in mind the trend is very important. Without trend, you have less chance to succeed.) so why was your first trade on this gbp/usd a short?
could this be gbp/usd heading northbound again here at (2.25pm --14/15 area?)

 

[be-positive]

the crafty B,s are at it

 

[be-positive]

long here gbp/usd 07/08 area