Useful things I've found on the Net.

The Basis of my trading

The Floor Trader Futures System - Are you about to pay $3000 for a $500 trading system?

Futures trading courses and systems are offered for sale at prices ranging from a few hundred dollars to several thousand dollars.
Many of these trading methods are not new or original. Often they are based on information found in trading books or articles written decades ago. In some cases they are old trading methods repackaged in new books (or made into software), and sold at high prices.
The original sources of these methods are sometimes obscure and unknown to the general public.
If you know where to look, however, some of these high-priced futures trading systems can be traced back to their original source - at a much lower price.

And there are some trading methods, of recent design, known only to a few Chicago traders, the few that actually make a living from trading - rather than from hawking books, software, and seminars.

I am an ex-floor trader and broker living in Chicago.
The basis of this system was told to me several years ago by a veteran floor trader at the Mid- America exchange in Chicago. He had two futures accounts: one for his day trading, and another for "position" trading, using this method almost exclusively. He was a millionaire and traded large positions, but he started his career with a small account. He made the millions from the market, using his methods, over several years. (He was a contemporary of Richard Dennis). He didn't mention who created the system.
The system was originally created for position trading. I developed some variations which work for day trading stock index futures.
Variations of this trading system are known to a handful of people in the Chicago trading community. I have been told of one individual who charges $1000 for instruction, using one of the variations.

The Floor Trader Method

A STORY FROM THE TRADING BATTLEFIELD

I am a futures trader living in Chicago. I've worked in the industry for many years, as an exchange employee, order desk clerk, Series 3 broker, and finally as an independent floor trader at the CBOT (MidAm division). I learned much from the veteran traders at the MidAm, but the profit potential of floor trading was limited due to the scarcity of "outside orders" at that exchange. So I took the skills I had picked up from the floor and applied them to off-floor trading. I knew that I had to develop my own system for day trading, as the popular methods around then either didn't work, produced meager profits, or had a low win percentage.
I knew that the old "trend following" and "breakout" methods were unsuitable. Some traders, in interviews or articles, would say things like, "our system only produces a 40% win percentage, but the winning trades more than make up for the losers". To me, that type of trading was absurd.
I, and most normal people, would not want to endure 60% loss percentage. (A coin toss is 50%!).
(Some of the "systems" or "trading courses" still being sold today are based on these outdated principles.)
I became a Series 3 broker at a local FCM. My plan was to advise clients on futures trading while trading my own account. The owners of the firm were unusually tight-fisted about expenses. To cut costs, the brokers had to share quote terminals in groups of 2-3. This particular firm cut costs in other ways, including quality of floor service, which was to cause major problems later on.
But in the meantime, I studied charts and systems, made observations, and traded. I searched for a way to apply the floor trader's "scalping" technique to off-floor trading. The first year was tough, financially, but I made a breakthrough in the second year which led to the first profitable month of day trading I had ever posted. Then, the second month was profitable. And so on. I went from trading the NYFE to the S&P (at that time, the S&P was still $500 per index point). The win-loss ratio of this method was around 9 to 1. One week I made eleven winning trades in a row.
The customer business also picked up, for myself and everyone in the office. The Grain markets of 1996 were taking off and a lot of commissions and new accounts were coming in. We traded the customers all week, and partied every weekend. Some of us flew to Las Vegas, the Caribbean, or Mexico for three-day trips, but tried to be back by at least Tuesday - there was a lot of money to be made.
So I was day trading the S&P and winning, and my account grew, despite the cash withdrawals.
I also collected larger and larger commission checks. I increased my trading size, and even used my methods to day trade Coffee futures, which was a feared market at the time.
That summer I made a return trip to New York City, to visit friends and to live it up in Manhattan, of course. I could afford it now. I returned to Chicago a little hyped, thinking of relocating to Manhattan and trading full-time for a living. I decided to trade my account even more aggressively, increase my profits, and drop the brokerage part of the business, as the customers were becoming time-consuming. Then I would be free to live elsewhere.
I hit the markets hard Monday morning. I got nailed for a quick $450 loss near the open, but I bailed out, and made $600 later that day. I was even more confident, having turned a losing day into a winner. The next two day were all winners. I was ahead $2100 by Wednesday's close.
Thursday was a different story.
I didn't realize it at the time, but the events of that Thursday were foreshadowed by some disasters that had befallen several customers and IB's of the firm.
That spring, the Corn, Wheat, and Soybean markets were the busiest anyone had ever seen (since the 1988 markets, at least) but the floor operation used by our firm was doing a terrible job of handling the flood of orders we sent in. At the CBOT, and the CME as well. As the owners of our firm were obsessed with saving money any way possible, they usually hired the lowest they could find, which was often the worst they could find. Orders that should have been filled were coming back "unable"; orders we thought were unable were being reported as "filled" the following day. Stops were being "blown through" by hundreds of dollars. Customers went "debit"; some threatened lawsuits; one IB trading through us went out of business. I figured I could avoid the madness by staying with the S&P's, which hadn't had major problems up to then.
Well, the problem service reached the S&P, as well. On that Thursday, I placed a limit order to sell. I canceled the order a short time later. I stopped watching the indexes for awhile - the grain customers were keeping me busy. Market action indicated that the S&P order should be "nothing done" - provided it was canceled, on time, by our floor operation. It wasn't.
The sell order was "too late to cancel". That was bad enough. However, due to incompetence and ignorance in both the floor and office operations, the sell was not reported to me for nearly two hours.
To make a long story short, Thursday was a disaster. I was short the S&P without knowing it, and the market was rallying to new highs.
The next mistake was mine. Veteran traders know what I mean; one day you lose perspective, and trade emotionally rather than logically. I was enraged over the operations error, and instead of getting out immediately and salvaging the rest of my account, I attempted to "trade out of it".
I "averaged up" - sold more contracts. The funny thing is, my system called for being long the market - but all logic and reason went out the window that day.
The market continued higher. At the close, my account was "blown out". Eight months of winning trades destroyed by one afternoon of insanity.

I have long since left that firm, and the retail customer business. I am now focused on trading the markets and perfecting my methods.

Things have changed in the futures markets. The size of the S&P contract has been cut in half, and the CME finally introduced a mini S&P, long overdue. Electronic trading and Internet order entry has made precision day trading more feasible - much better than in the old days of phoning in orders.
Real-time quotes are now available over the Internet, along with chart graphics. I'm back on the day trading battlefield. I have refined the method I used back then, and it works even better than before.

FTS 1
FloorTraderMethod1nqoos.PNG

FTS 2
FloorTraderMethod2nqoos.PNG

FTS 3
FloorTraderMethod3nqoos.PNG

FTS 4
FloorTraderMethod4nqoos.PNG

FTS 5
FloorTraderMethod5nqoos.PNG

FTS 6
FloorTradeMethod6nqoos.PNG

FTS 7
FloorTraderMethod7nqoos.PNG

FTS 8
ftm8.png

FTS 9
ftm9.png

FTS 10
ftm10.png

FTS 11
ftm11.png

FTS 12
ftm12.png

FTS 13
ftm13.png

FTS 14
ftm14.png

FTS 15
ftm15.png

FTS 16
ftm16.png


borrowed from my good friend NQoos (who borrowed some of my stuff so we're even :))
 
The floor trader's method provides one basis for trading based on price pattern recognition. In some markets observation of volume can improve your results.

Although it may seem dissimilar to what dbPhoenix discusses with S & R and Wyckoff they are not that far apart. In both cases you are looking for price action at anticipated support or resistance to generate signals for trading. With Wyckoff the S&R is "true" S&R based on areas of previous activity but in the FTM the S&R comes from moving averages. In both cases you largely ignore price action unless it takes place at valid S&R.

FTM does not provide you a "no-thought" packaged solution to trading the markets. What it does provide is a framework that can be used independently of or as a complement to Wyckoff style S&R trading. My own strategy combines elements of both under certain circumstances to improve my probabilities. Think about the progression of a move and what you a being told as price progresses or fails to progress.

One of the keys is finding the "right" mas for S&R. The ma is just a visual way of representing what players in the market will perceive as value. And, as a move progresses the perception will change so the FTM talks about different levels of penetration of the MAs depending on the nature and stage of the trend. Different markets (on different timeframes) gain support from different mas so picking the right ones by trial and error is an important component of success - think about what other participants are using. Are they using emas (intraday) or smas (daily)?

Potentially you could eliminate the emas and use trendlines or channels instead. A good friend of mine, perhaps poking fun at me, refers to my mas as a lazy man's trendlines.

This is, however, a sound strategy for trading especially in markets prone to good trends.
 
Looking at a similar setup myself. What Nine is talking about here does WORK ! It comes down to mastering the signals to sort the wheat from the chaff. I am tying in the 1 min and the 5min. So take the trend from the 5 zoom in to the 1min for an entry. Thanks for sharing
 
Good observation ceydababy,

I would add to that by warning against going to too short a timeframe. You may find that you get a lot more invalid signals if you do so however a filter can resolve that. I found with eurofx that a longish timeframe was appropriate during "normal" trends but when you broke out of congestion a short timeframe FTM chart gave good entries - and could be applied even during the reaction to news events. I'd classify this as advanced application though.

A friend of mine went to the trouble of scanning and fixing a significant part of the above document so I've attached it.
.
 

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Some traders, in interviews or articles, would say things like, "our system only produces a 40% win percentage, but the winning trades more than make up for the losers". To me, that type of trading was absurd. I, and most normal people, would not want to endure 60% loss percentage. (A coin toss is 50%!).
(y)
 
Another useful strategy (or at least the basis for a strategy) is the Retro Trader strategy described on dacharts.

Retro-Trader (updated October, 2001)
15m breakout system for day trading the Nasdaq and S&P index futures
Strengths: Good at maximizing results on intraday trends, survives well while jockeying for position for the next big move. Uses 2 time frames (5 minute and 15 minute) to filter out bad trades and get early warning of trend changes.
Weaknesses: Mediocre results on narrow range days, unprofitable during chop. Stop-loss placement is too wide for many traders. Frequency of trade opportunities is too slow for efficient learning in realtime. A system that provides freqent small gains is more satisfying for most people.
Intensity: average of 10 trades per day. Requires looking at the chart only every 5 minutes.
Resources: Charts and trade logs from Fall, 2001, are maintained for historical interest and independent study.

Retro Trader Strategy
 
News

So where do you get your news information? I use the 3 sites below and I have only one reason to know when the "big" news is coming - to stay out of the market. That's my personal recommendation for news trading but each to his own poison.

Translated version of http://www.derivatecheck.de/termine/default.asp

is a translation of the German derivate check site and provide importance ratings and good commentary with at times bizarre translations :)

Forexnews.com

sometimes has slightly different information to derivate check

Forex Forum, Forex Calendar, Forex News @ Forex Factory

is recommended for the filtered news calendar (decide which markets matter to you) and the coloured ratings rather than the (overly indicator/newbie orientated) discussions. James16 is interesting and similar to the making money thread here and Jacko's strategy for the euro is a good one for currencies.
 
Grrrr im trapped between stage 2 and 3 due to 2 things...

i have not enough money to even have a decent capital (have only £115 left in bank or on creditcard taht i can lose without seriously actually having no food!!!) :confused::(:cry:

And 2ndly i dont even understand all that technical stuff aboy emas, and mas and all the complexs lines.. :(:-0 :(

I just use my basic constantly updating graph on tradesimulator.com and the trend line.. :(:cry::cry:
 
Get a copy of Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan as a starting point. You can probably get one from the local library.

Edit: Stan's stuff is about mas but also about how stocks are accumulated and distributed ... and the interesting and profitable phases in between. You'll find that what dbPhoenix talks about here at T2W will then get you to the next level. Get it all together and I assure you that you can be as profitable as you want to be.
 
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The Clue is in the Title

The clue is in the Title “Trade to Win”
86,264 Members If I had a pound for ever bit of Bull **** Advice I read I would be a Very Rich Man, or the Hot Air could run the 25 million cars in the country keeping the Tree Huggers Happy.

This maybe a new Concept why don’t people put their money where their mouth is.

This is my Advise STOP with the Misguided Opinions and get back to Proving that money can be made from the clue in the Title T2W. Let’s start dealing in FACTS and I’m sure we will LEARN from each other systems BACK TO BASICS This is my Trade lets see more people put their trades on with their advise Thank you
 

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The clue is in the Title

This is my Trade lets see more people put their trades on with their advise Thank you
Pete,
The clue is indeed in the title . . . of the thread: 'Useful things I've found on the Net'. nine has clearly gone to a lot of trouble to sift through the mountains of useless advice on the net to collate and post information that he believes is amongst the best that he's found. He's done a good job IMO, and that of others too, given the number of rep' points he's received. By contrast, your post / chart tells us nothing other than the fact that you made thirty quid on a punt on the FTSE which isn't especially helpful or informative to me - or anyone else.
Tim.
 
I was about to delete pete007's post before I saw timsk's response, but I will leave it for a while since that response is absolutely spot on and serves as a timely reminder.

Please keep this thread on topic. Thanks.

jon
 
Nine,

Re your post 21, from FTS8 onwards.

This is the method I’m trying to perfect at the moment (although I ‘discovered’ the method independently as a modification of another method) . I reckon it’s the best approach for scalping. However, I don’t refer to volume - holding a position for seconds, if possible, I don’t think it strictly relevant (however, if someone can convince me otherwise I’ll certainly listen); and I have no need for technical indicators - their lagging nature would undermine the immediacy of the method.

There is one point of yours with which I would disagree regarding this method: “warning against going to too short a timeframe”. To illustrate why, please refer to the attachment in the second pot - tyhe one haere is incorrect.

The charts are for Friday’s CBOT 10-year future. The upper is a 1-minute time-frame, the lower a 10-tick time-frame. 1, 2, 3 and 4 show high/low points (I’ll use only these – it’s sufficient).

Here are the times of the highs/lows. The first figures are for the 1-minute chart, followed by the times for the 10-tick chart. The figures in brackets are from a 5-minute chart simply to provide a broader perspective.

1. 18:31, 18:30 (18:35)
2. 18:45, 18:44 (18:45)
3. 18:48, 18:48 (same time on the 5-min but the bar is a down-bar compared to an up-bar for 1-min and tick)
4. 19:05, 19:04 (19:05).

Is 1-minute significant? Of course it is (5-minutes is an infinity).

I think the greater the time-frame, the greater the risk. Assume you have a buy (sell) signal and you open a position; your entry price should be as close to the high (low) of the high(low) bar as possible, but not at the high (low) as this level would invalidate the high (low) bar as a buy (sell) signal (you won’t know if a bar is a high or low until the following bar).

Your stop is above (below) the high (low) bar. Therefore, the further away from the high (low) where the position is opened, the greater the potential loss to the stop point. And as price can rise/fall over, eg 1-minute (bar), then logically it can rise/fall by a greater degree over 5-minutes (bar)and the further away your stop.

Each instrument has a unique optimal time for generating signals. As shown, the 10-year note is 10 ticks which is also (strangely) the optimum for the 5- and 2-year notes. For comparison, Eurex’s Bund (10-year) is 25 ticks, Bobl (5-year) is 10-15 ticks, and Schatz (2-year) is 25 ticks. However, I think it’s important to occasionally adjust (check daily) these periods to reflect any change in underlying volatility (the same also applies to moving averages, for example – a 5- and 15-minute ma may work fine one day but if the underlying becomes more volatile 3- and 13-minute may be more suitable).

Are there any weakness? Only my own – not closing some losing positions quick enough (but I’m improving).

Any comments welcome.

Grant.
 

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This should do it. Apologies for quality

Grant.
 

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Nine,

Re your post 21, from FTS8 onwards.

This is the method I’m trying to perfect at the moment (although I ‘discovered’ the method independently as a modification of another method) . I reckon it’s the best approach for scalping. However, I don’t refer to volume - holding a position for seconds, if possible, I don’t think it strictly relevant (however, if someone can convince me otherwise I’ll certainly listen); and I have no need for technical indicators - their lagging nature would undermine the immediacy of the method.

There is one point of yours with which I would disagree regarding this method: “warning against going to too short a timeframe”. To illustrate why, please refer to the attachment in the second pot - tyhe one haere is incorrect.

The charts are for Friday’s CBOT 10-year future. The upper is a 1-minute time-frame, the lower a 10-tick time-frame. 1, 2, 3 and 4 show high/low points (I’ll use only these – it’s sufficient).

Here are the times of the highs/lows. The first figures are for the 1-minute chart, followed by the times for the 10-tick chart. The figures in brackets are from a 5-minute chart simply to provide a broader perspective.

1. 18:31, 18:30 (18:35)
2. 18:45, 18:44 (18:45)
3. 18:48, 18:48 (same time on the 5-min but the bar is a down-bar compared to an up-bar for 1-min and tick)
4. 19:05, 19:04 (19:05).

Is 1-minute significant? Of course it is (5-minutes is an infinity).

I think the greater the time-frame, the greater the risk. Assume you have a buy (sell) signal and you open a position; your entry price should be as close to the high (low) of the high(low) bar as possible, but not at the high (low) as this level would invalidate the high (low) bar as a buy (sell) signal (you won’t know if a bar is a high or low until the following bar).

Your stop is above (below) the high (low) bar. Therefore, the further away from the high (low) where the position is opened, the greater the potential loss to the stop point. And as price can rise/fall over, eg 1-minute (bar), then logically it can rise/fall by a greater degree over 5-minutes (bar)and the further away your stop.

Each instrument has a unique optimal time for generating signals. As shown, the 10-year note is 10 ticks which is also (strangely) the optimum for the 5- and 2-year notes. For comparison, Eurex’s Bund (10-year) is 25 ticks, Bobl (5-year) is 10-15 ticks, and Schatz (2-year) is 25 ticks. However, I think it’s important to occasionally adjust (check daily) these periods to reflect any change in underlying volatility (the same also applies to moving averages, for example – a 5- and 15-minute ma may work fine one day but if the underlying becomes more volatile 3- and 13-minute may be more suitable).

Are there any weakness? Only my own – not closing some losing positions quick enough (but I’m improving).

Any comments welcome.

Grant.

Hi Grant.

i think the point nine was making was that newbies would be better looking at higher time frames as there will be less noise and there will be more time to identify and act on possible setups...

personally i find that 2 t/f's are best as per elder as multiples of 5. i have 5m and 1m.

also indicators don't have to be lagging. divergence between an indicator and the instrument is preemptive, no?

had a look at the bund looks pretty good for the shorter t/f don't have the 10 year t note on my platform unfortunately as this would probably be my preference .

cheers bd.
 
lbr stuff
 

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some dow charts from last week
 

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Brutus,

Thanks for the pdf's - will read those this weekend.

I only subscribed to CBOT Friday so it is too early to make comparisons with Eurex's fixed-income. However, will be interesting to see how this develops.

Grant.
 
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