USA Debt Crisis

No it's not.

Technical summary is it is supposed to allow liquidity to the banks to facilitate lending.

QE has happened - lending isn't happening.



My point!

Governments should have bailed out people and those poor individuals who could not meet mortgage payments. Not banks who are and were the guilty party along with the mortgage fixers.

The whole well being of nation and poor people would have been lifted.
Individuals could have maintained their debt payments
Banks would have had a chance to unwind from their risky mortgaged backed securities
Would have cost a lot less
Demand in economy and liquidity in the banking sector could have been maintained

The whole capitalist system is well messed up.

I also think derivative markets and hedge fun managers - short selling of stock should be banned.

System is being manipulated by big these powerful institutions acting like thugs...


Revolution is well over due. :mad:

O......m.......g....

I so want to debate every one of your ideas but I already spend too much time on the internet doing that with others.


But on the subject of the US, yet more poor data today. Jobs were higher than anticipated but extremely weak for a so called recovery. All the governments growth and budget forecasts will have to be thrown right out the window.
 
O......m.......g....

I so want to debate every one of your ideas but I already spend too much time on the internet doing that with others.

duty_calls.png



No, I'm only kidding. I do know what you mean though. Sometimes I see what Atilla writes and I'm all like:

jean-luc_wtf.jpg



But hey, it takes all sorts to make a world, and a market. Atilla's OK, his heart is in the right place. And some of his points I do agree with.

Peace.
 
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O......m.......g....

I so want to debate every one of your ideas but I already spend too much time on the internet doing that with others.


But on the subject of the US, yet more poor data today. Jobs were higher than anticipated but extremely weak for a so called recovery. All the governments growth and budget forecasts will have to be thrown right out the window.


At last someone who knows.

Can you explain the transmission mechanism as to how QE is supposed to feed into the real economy please?

I've been asking this question for quite sometime...


I did say I didn't understand it.


As for you Mr 'P'... you are good with trash but I'm still yet to fathom what anything of value or substance ever comes out of your motor mouth. :-0
 
At last someone who knows.

Can you explain the transmission mechanism as to how QE is supposed to feed into the real economy please?

I've been asking this question for quite sometime...


I did say I didn't understand it.


As for you Mr 'P'... you are good with trash but I'm still yet to fathom what anything of value or substance ever comes out of your motor mouth. :-0

Fair comments (I actually mean the one about QE as well - see, I said i sometimes think some of your stuff is OK).

As for the second bit, you'll have to do a search, but there is some good (I think excellent) trading stuff in there. Probably in the ratio of 1 good post to 20 utter crap. Maybe 25 utter crap.
 
No it's not.

Technical summary is it is supposed to allow liquidity to the banks to facilitate lending.

QE has happened - lending isn't happening.
Right, I insist that QE is over for the moment... As to the rest of your points and how QE works, I can help you understand it, if you like.
 
At last someone who knows.

Can you explain the transmission mechanism as to how QE is supposed to feed into the real economy please?

I've been asking this question for quite sometime...


I did say I didn't understand it.


As for you Mr 'P'... you are good with trash but I'm still yet to fathom what anything of value or substance ever comes out of your motor mouth. :-0

Here you go. Propaganda straight from the horses mouth.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/pdf/qe-pamphlet.pdf

It's all about getting you to spend, so do your part for the economy, go out and buy something manufactured in China.
 
I also think derivative markets and hedge fun managers - short selling of stock should be banned.

System is being manipulated by big these powerful institutions acting like thugs
QUOTE]

hmm, you didnt really back this up, 'manipulation' by big institutions is ridiculously vague and you sound v much like a politician trying to cover his own ****. if the share price of a company is short sold aggressively by big institutions wanting to make a quick buck on it, so what? if the company is sound, then there will be as many big institutions and maybe a few of us tiny fish who will happily be on the other side of it, buying it up cheaply. net result - sweet fa.


QE 3 will def happen, i have proof. and if the cat dies in the box, wouldnt it start to pong, therefore you wont need to open it to see otherwise.
 
I'm assuming this is a joke Atilla? You can't seriously believe more intervention is the answer?? That's what's got us in this mess in the first place.

No joke at all. Derivatives and lack of regulation or 'self regulation' and creative creation of risky assets repackaged as safe assets backed by collateral assets is precisely how we got to where we are. Not only that but these highly risky assets were subsequently solf on as safe. There was little or no regulation in the markets.

These institutions too big to fail could pretty much do anything they wanted. The whole of USA now accepts and knows this to be a big F-up. The UK joined in the big orgy.

Miss-selling of so many investments?

Miss-selling of mortgages?

When you say intervention - what interventions are you exactly referring to?

You get enough hedge funs attack any one company or bank and you'll have a run on your hands.

How is it that the debt across the PIGS are pretty much what they were but the spot-light moves from one country to another? There is a pack out there which is leading to complete destablisation of these countries where the yields on bonds move literally hundreds of base points over weeks. How is that reason?

You guys reckon these institutions wake up one morning and think WTF Italy is not what we thought it was. Where were their heads for the last 3-4 years. What were they thinking?


Highly leveraged derivative markets with short selling and the pack mentality can destablise as we have seen - especially with small countries. These are like financial thugs. Once you have them outside your door irrespective of good or bad news they will drive markets down.
 
Here you go. Propaganda straight from the horses mouth.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/pdf/qe-pamphlet.pdf

It's all about getting you to spend, so do your part for the economy, go out and buy something manufactured in China.


Cheers NT, been reading it and the transmission mechanism which is the crux of my question / dillemma remains unanswered other than very loosely.

Direct injections of money into the economy, primarily by buying gilts,
can have a number of effects. The sellers of the assets have more money
so may go out and spend it. That will help to boost growth. Or they may
buy other assets instead, such as shares or company bonds. That will push
up the prices of those assets, making the people who own them, either
directly or through their pension funds, better off. So they may go out and
spend more
. And higher asset prices mean lower yields, which brings down
the cost of borrowing for businesses and households. That should provide
a further boost to spending.
In addition, banks will find themselves holding more reserves. That might
lead them to boost their lending to consumers and businesses
. So, once
again, borrowing increases and so does spending. That said, if banks are
concerned about their financial health, they may prefer to hold the extra
reserves without expanding lending
. For this reason, the Bank of England is
buying most of the assets from the wider economy rather than the banks.


The underlined are all maybe's. The reds I can't see taking place. Perhaps things may have been a lot worse so providing liquidity to financial institutions is good on balance. The blue is the only maybe that's visible as bank lending to small to medium businesses is still very patchy if at all.



Few points...

1. It is stated Ms needs to grow to keep pace with the expansion of the economy.
BUT - Increasing the Ms is not the same as increasing the expansion of the economy.
- Time lag & Transmission mechanism.

2. The system to me leans heavily on the wealth effect for consumers to spend. But the more wealthy one is, the less one needs and these people already have what they need. The money needs to be circulated to the have nots.

3. Very little on Monitoring What to Watch? Unless I've got it wrong other than inflation (which further reduces disposable income) I don't see it working. :rolleyes:
- This is my main point. The transmission mechanism. Once again other than hoping for a wealth effect there is no transmission mechanism other than the hope corporates and individuals holding rising asset prices will go out and spend.

So we can give as much money as we can to Bankers, Politicians and the Fat Cats but it ain't happening. The skewed distribution of wealth will further screw us all.

The solution is to keep interest rates low and raise taxation and give the money to the low end hard working deprived areas of society. I would be giving wage increases to Nurses and council workers and real grafters of society.

But instead round my streets we have rubbish littered around the streets because 10 x dustmen have been axed to save the councillers jobs at £150K p/a.

Our elite leaders are effed up dumb ass Eton educated ******s who don't know FA about economics.

Look at the US - asking for tax cuts which is precisely how they got here in the first place - the republicans are serious dumb ass red knecks the lot of em.

UK Policy
1. Low interest rates - to stim investment and keep £ low
2. Raise taxation - to stave off inflation

US Policy
1. Raise taxation to pay for debt
2. Cut spending on Pentagon and Nasa for starters.


Pretty obvious really. But people in power and who already have the monies prefer to do the complete opposite.


Once again thank you for the article. I'll watch out for the Ms figures and be interested to find out more about what the BoE is monitoring other than inflation to judge success of QE.
 
You get enough hedge funs attack any one company or bank and you'll have a run on your hands.

Highly leveraged derivative markets with short selling and the pack mentality can destablise as we have seen - especially with small countries

...and this short selling is enough to destabilise a country?! so which country's economy in the past has been destabilised (solely) by short selling?.....

agree that some regulations were far too lax (clinton removed loads, as did gordon brown), but short selling being the cause of economic woes is pure myth. wake up if you think derivatives mkts are all bad, it wld be imposs to do business in a globalised economy without derivatives.
 
...and this short selling is enough to destabilise a country?! so which country's economy in the past has been destabilised (solely) by short selling?.....

agree that some regulations were far too lax (clinton removed loads, as did gordon brown), but short selling being the cause of economic woes is pure myth. wake up if you think derivatives mkts are all bad, it wld be imposs to do business in a globalised economy without derivatives.


Not saying it was the cause but it doesn't help does it? It compounds the problem like adding fuel to the fire.

Derivatives are just another secondary and in some cases even third level markets.

How would it stop global economy from functioning?

Why are derivatives so highly leveraged?

How does this help the global economy? What useful function does it serve?

One could make a case it helps those with inside knowledge to make bets that produce ridiculous returns.

Why has Italy just become an issue now? Where were all these issues with Italy in the last four years?


Stop and think about it for a short while... :rolleyes:
 
No joke at all. Derivatives and lack of regulation or 'self regulation' and creative creation of risky assets repackaged as safe assets backed by collateral assets is precisely how we got to where we are. Not only that but these highly risky assets were subsequently solf on as safe. There was little or no regulation in the markets.

These institutions too big to fail could pretty much do anything they wanted. The whole of USA now accepts and knows this to be a big F-up. The UK joined in the big orgy.

Miss-selling of so many investments?

Miss-selling of mortgages?

When you say intervention - what interventions are you exactly referring to?

You get enough hedge funs attack any one company or bank and you'll have a run on your hands.

How is it that the debt across the PIGS are pretty much what they were but the spot-light moves from one country to another? There is a pack out there which is leading to complete destablisation of these countries where the yields on bonds move literally hundreds of base points over weeks. How is that reason?

You guys reckon these institutions wake up one morning and think WTF Italy is not what we thought it was. Where were their heads for the last 3-4 years. What were they thinking?


Highly leveraged derivative markets with short selling and the pack mentality can destablise as we have seen - especially with small countries. These are like financial thugs. Once you have them outside your door irrespective of good or bad news they will drive markets down.

In short:

-Yes, markets were given too much of a free rein pre 2008 crash.
-There needs to be a mix of both capitalism and socialism (intervention), 85% and 15% respectively in my opinion. I'd guess it's about 60% Cap and 40% soc now, or maybe even 50-50??
-Interventions which are contributing to the mess (i should clarify that government aren't the only problem): Central bank money printing, bailouts for institutions which should've failed, market prop-ups (housing, stocks, autos, etc, although they're terrible at each which will lead to worse problems).
-The "bond vigilantes" wouldn't be shorting without good reason, and they certainly won't be able to change a trend. You can't blame speculators for governments not running their houses correctly.
-Banning short selling only exacerbates the inherent weakness of the market you're trying to prop up.
 
In short:

-Yes, markets were given too much of a free rein pre 2008 crash.
-There needs to be a mix of both capitalism and socialism (intervention), 85% and 15% respectively in my opinion. I'd guess it's about 60% Cap and 40% soc now, or maybe even 50-50??
-Interventions which are contributing to the mess (i should clarify that government aren't the only problem): Central bank money printing, bailouts for institutions which should've failed, market prop-ups (housing, stocks, autos, etc, although they're terrible at each which will lead to worse problems).
-The "bond vigilantes" wouldn't be shorting without good reason, and they certainly won't be able to change a trend. You can't blame speculators for governments not running their houses correctly.
-Banning short selling only exacerbates the inherent weakness of the market you're trying to prop up.

(y)

My goodness...somebody who 'gets' it!
 
The problems of companies / countries are not due to people short selling. The markets punish those who deserve it.

The Greek Prime Minister and other idiots can witter on about evil speculators as much as they want, it doesn't change a damn thing.

To take the Greek situation as an example, the country is not under attack from speculators. It's debt is priced like junk because it is junk.
 
The problems of companies / countries are not due to people short selling. The FREE markets punish those who deserve it.

I added the word 'free' because in this Orwellian Q.E riddled world, the Central Banks are rewarding failure and punishing the prudent.
 
How is it that the debt across the PIGS are pretty much what they were but the spot-light moves from one country to another? There is a pack out there which is leading to complete destablisation of these countries where the yields on bonds move literally hundreds of base points over weeks. How is that reason?

You guys reckon these institutions wake up one morning and think WTF Italy is not what we thought it was. Where were their heads for the last 3-4 years. What were they thinking?


Highly leveraged derivative markets with short selling and the pack mentality can destablise as we have seen - especially with small countries. These are like financial thugs. Once you have them outside your door irrespective of good or bad news they will drive markets down.

Marvelous isn't it how the markets can focus attention like they do exposing the weaknesses wherever they go. You seem to be arguing that markets create this weakness ! Sounds like a typical socialist nanny state whinge to me.
 
I added the word 'free' because in this Orwellian Q.E riddled world, the Central Banks are rewarding failure and punishing the prudent.

True enough.

I love the way this crisis and its ramifications have been portrayed as a failure of capitalism. Capitalism? What on earth is "capitalist" about our current system that so richly rewards failure?

This is in fact a failure of socialism, big statism, heavy handed yet utterly ineffectual regulation and ignorant government meddling. The answer these clowns propose is of course more socialism, a larger state, heavier-handed but equally ineffectual regulation and increased government meddling of unparalleled ignorance.

People say "buy gold". I say "F*** gold. Buy guns, gin and mantraps".
 
Marvelous isn't it how the markets can focus attention like they do exposing the weaknesses wherever they go. You seem to be arguing that markets create this weakness ! Sounds like a typical socialist nanny state whinge to me.
There's no silver bullets out there... Free mkts have their issues and flaws that can only be addressed through oversight, regulation and provision of systemic backstops. So to say that either extreme is a solution is wrong. It does have to be a mix, as JRP said.
 
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