US Payroll figures?

[Rainmaker]

guess there is a flipside to all this. if the economy is growing as the numbers suggest and companies' workforce costs aren't rising, then this should be good for company profits.

 

[bracke]

ABANDON DOW!

Women, Children and of course Traders FIRST.

Please excuse me I couldn't resist it.

Regards

bracke

Now where's that life jacket.

 

[stutch]

I'm know I'm a bit late but you may find this link useful for US announcements in future

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/b-econoday.htm

 

[Airthrey Capital]

Rainmaker,

Certainly hope you are right....I am long Dow!

I suspect there will be a knee-jerk reaction either way post the figure, but a reversal by time of close. Doesn't help being a Friday either!

As predicted, Dow down 60 after figure, now up 50 (110 point recovery)

 

[RogerM]

Looks like all Americans without jobs are still spending money as tho' they still had them! So the credit bubble continues to inflate, and eventually the jobless American will have to stop consuming. Then wot?

 

[Airthrey Capital]

I have always suspected that the same thing is happening in the UK....

Particularly with regard to the UK housing market. People are quite happy to borrow large multiples to buy property in the hope that interest rates stay low. The argument has alwys been that there won't be a property market crash in the UK, on the basis that the last property crash ocurred when interest rates in the UK hit 15%.

That may have been the case then. But it doesn't mean that high interest rates are the only cause of properyty crashes.

If you lose your job, you have no income. No income, you can't pay your mortgage. No matter what the interest rate is.

UK property WILL crash. People are too much in debt.

 

[grubs50]

The housing bubble will burst in the UK, it's just a matter of time......................isn't it amazing how the release of this data has got the market excited with no particular direction.........i have read so many +ve and -ve reactions to it since 1.30pm and it is really reflected in the erratic nature of the market ever since

 

[bracke]

I have come to the conclusion that the majority of the British puplic will only reduce their spending and hence borrowing when the have to. They do not appear to take the hint when interest rates start to rise albeit in small amounts.

Untill it actually starts to hurt the spending/borrowing just goes on, all encouraged by government and lenders.

I suspect that the Bank Of England would like to increase rates further but are held back by the cost to industry in borrowing costs and want to avoid a strengthening of the pound which would effect exporters

There is also the consideration that if rates rise too far there will be financial carnage as borrowers become unable to repay debt bearig in mind the current debt levels

A rock and a hard place come to mind.

Regards

bracke

 

[TWI]

Short Sterling is still pricing another 25bp Jun/Sep

 

[chump]

Grubs,
"The housing bubble will burst in the UK, it's just a matter of time"

Yes,it might,but can we plan a trade for it ? Equally important can we plan a trade in case it doesn't ?

What we know is if we stand aside without a plan we will never be in front of any opportunity that comes along.


Cheers

 

[Airthrey Capital]

When is the Bof E going to realise that raising interest rates will have little impact on the rising housing market?....Most mortages are at fixed rates!.....Demand still outstrips supply.


Perhaps a 50% tax on all those buy to let people who own a dozen properties?

Now there's a thought.........

 

[Rainmaker]

the housing market, as ever, will carry on rising until everyone on the planet thinks they can never fall, then they will fall in real terms for a generation. look at japan, and all the talk of a "new paradigm" in the late 80's. Prices have fallen every year for 13 years and no-one wants to buy. in parts of tokyo, prices are down 90% in what was the strongest economy in the world. even zero interest rates have had no positive impact.

meanwhile blair and brown want to sustain a fool's recovery until the next election. their £100bn of extra government spend and £50bn in the pipeline will kill the economy when we have a proper downturn. neither the government or consumers will have the capacity to spend us out of it. if we have a recession like the last two, govt borrowing could top £100bn a year and all those vat and stamp duty receipts from the housing boom will dry up. but that's after the next election.....

 

[Airthrey Capital]

I also understand that in Japan they have 50 -100 year mortgages which you can pass on to your children after you are long dead and gone!,,,,What a great idea!

 

[Trader333]

Japan has a different culture and economic setup to the UK. It is unlikely that the UK will mirror what happens in Japan in the same way. Also every attempt to predict what will happen to the UK economy is almost always wrong. A year ago people were predicting a massive slump in house prices and the onslaught of recession that was supposed to be in full swing by May. Some people even sold their houses and moved to rented accommodation based on leading experts saying this was going to happen and what did happen ? Nothing that was predicted as usual. I learned long ago that predicting markets is a waste of time and that reacting to what they do is the key.


Paul

 

[tradesmart]

As ever, conflicting views:-

CBS MarketWatch chief economist Irwin Kellner said that the jobs data was "disappointing all around," and puts the economic recovery at risk.
He said, however, that it meant a rate hike by the Federal Reserve was "clearly off the table."

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said that while employment was "no doubt" weak in February, he thinks weather was a "very significant" factor in depressing payrolls.
"In our view, weather is key here," Shepherdson said. "In March, better weather and the end to the California strike should equal job growth of more than 200,000."

There you go, just blame the weather........

 

[jsd]

hmm but human psychology is predictable and that is what the market is mass collective psychology , understand humans and you'll know what the market will do. probably 90/95 % of people are herding beasts, look to follow the actions of their fellow crowd because of insecurities within themselves, 3/5 % are truly independent in thought and with deeper awareness of what they themselves represent to themselves, both as matter and energy.

maybe thats why only 5% make it long term in the market envirnoment, being liberated sentient forms. but i guess theres no right or wrong way of being, we just be, hmmm.

 

[grubs50]

IMHO it is a bit easier to react to the equity market than housing market cos u can't just dump ur house as soon as prices start going against u...........actions in the housing market require planning and time.

 

[grubs50]

It seems tomorrow's US weekly unemployment data is going to be very crucial............very bad numbers might mean the market drops significantly.

 

[tradesmart]

Generally of late the weekly jobless claims have been on stable declining pattern and have different economic connotations compared with the volatile monthly NF payroll numbers imho......

However, with the market in it's current downtrend, the slightest disappointment could hasten the decline for sure..........

 

[Rainmaker]

Correct. I think the market mood has switched (inthe short term) from half-full to half-empty). Bad news has an impact and good news is being ignored.