Best Thread US day traders thread.

[dvdh]

PitBull/Strewthmate,

I have been trying to get to grips with taking overall market conditions into account, a lot of text books say it absolutely essential to include, overall market, market sector, longer time frames for the stock your about to trade etc,

Its a lot to take in the heat of battle and can lead to indecision, and whats known as analysis paralysis.
The way I overcome this is I just accept that there are trends within trends. the more trends in my favour so much the better, at the same time it doesn't matter if one or two trends are pointing the other way as long as you have other factors supporting the trade.

I suppose this is where L2 type trading comes into its own; well if you can work out what the big boys are trying to do using L2, you know they will have done the donkey work for you

You gotta know a little about the overall market. Although I don't agree on the multiple timeframes. That would just make you confused. Then you'll always find a reason not to trade. Cuz there will always be something that points the other direction. You just gotta trade a time-frame you're most comfortable with.
I use an S&P 500 squawkbox to hear the overall market move. So I don't have to look at the charts all the time. It's always good to know who's long or short in the futures. You get a feeling for what's gonna happen. This morning there were HUGE buyers on the open. A lot bigger than usual. But around the 1276.5-1277 level there were so many offers. All blocks. So suddenly merrill lynch came in selling. Locals pushed down to 1272.5. One trade printed lower and all the sell-stops got hit. Some high-energy selling followed. I got out of my longs, before they started going lower, thanks to the squawkbox. That's how I keep track of the overall market!
Don't look at too many things. The same thing with indicators. Some people use like 5 indicators. There's always a couple pointing in a different direction. So there's always a reason not to do the trade. Do you know what I mean? Just stick to your strategy and don't get distracted by other timeframes etc.

-Dave

 

[PitBull]

Well said dvdh. Nail on head springs to mind

I like the idea of the squawk box, I might give it a try!

 

[dvdh]

Well said dvdh. Nail on head springs to mind

I like the idea of the squawk box, I might give it a try!

Thank you.
You can get a 3 day trial at realtimefutures.com. You need the pit squawk not the e-mini squawk!

-Dave.

 

[Gadgetman]

AMZN and GILD

Been watching them this evening, both could be interesting for tomorrow:

AMZN has been trying to get through that $49 mark. Reached $49.06, with Goldmans and Deutsche Bank both sitting on the Ask at 49.07. Would like to have seen it touch the $49.07 to see how they reacted.

GILD tried and failed to break through the high of the previous 5 days: it's created a "U" with the bottom of the U being exactly half-way between it's opening high of $54.10 on the 14th and close today.

Any opinions on how they'll do tomorrow?

 

[dvdh]

Been watching them this evening, both could be interesting for tomorrow:

AMZN has been trying to get through that $49 mark. Reached $49.06, with Goldmans at Deutsche Bank both sitting on the Ask at 49.07. Would like to have seen it touch the $49.07 to see how they reacted.

GILD tried and failed to break through the high of the previous 5 days: it's created a "U" with the bottom of the U being exactly half-way between it's opening high of $54.10 on the 14th and close today.

Any opinions on how they'll do tomorrow?

AMZN is a heavy weight in the index. GILD too, I think! There were some real big sellers in the afternoon in the futures! So I think we gotta be looking for shorts. But of course we'll see that tomorrow!
If the index sells off tomorrow, I don't think AMZN will be making highs. I don't know about GILD. GILD was pretty strong all day! So we'll see, right? :!:

-Dave.

 

[laytonm]

Hi

I think this is something that a lot of traders try to get to grips with. I think it also depends on whether you are looking for a a few tens of cents or a bigger move. Having said that even if you are scalping you can filter with the longer term trend and only take the moves along the line of least resistance. I habitually have a daily, 30min and 5 min chart open. I tend to know the overall trend of the markets because I swing trade the major index futures in addition to trading stocks.

I think one reason why a lot of people like trading opening gaps is that if a stock has gapped on high volume, then to an extent you can 'ignore' what the rest of the sector or market is doing. I like this because there is less potential for analysis paralysis which I think is a major problem for more complicated strategies.

I think the really important thing here (which I've learning in a painful and costly way in the past)is not not to mix trading strategies / methods. Easily done - I actually have the 'rules' for the different types of trades that I take on posters on the wall behind my screens - stops me forgetting this (mostly). I also have my position sizing sums written up as well. When I neglect these my profit goes down.

Hope this makes sense

Mark

 

[laytonm]

Oops - the previous post was meant to be a reply to post 980 about overall trends etc

Hi

I think this is something that a lot of traders try to get to grips with. I think it also depends on whether you are looking for a a few tens of cents or a bigger move. Having said that even if you are scalping you can filter with the longer term trend and only take the moves along the line of least resistance. I habitually have a daily, 30min and 5 min chart open. I tend to know the overall trend of the markets because I swing trade the major index futures in addition to trading stocks.

I think one reason why a lot of people like trading opening gaps is that if a stock has gapped on high volume, then to an extent you can 'ignore' what the rest of the sector or market is doing. I like this because there is less potential for analysis paralysis which I think is a major problem for more complicated strategies.

I think the really important thing here (which I've learning in a painful and costly way in the past)is not not to mix trading strategies / methods. Easily done - I actually have the 'rules' for the different types of trades that I take on posters on the wall behind my screens - stops me forgetting this (mostly). I also have my position sizing sums written up as well. When I neglect these my profit goes down.

Hope this makes sense

Mark

 

[strewthmate]

Sentiment

Laytonm

Great point about mixing strategies. I do the same (without the posters - great tip). Mostly I'm looking for short term position trades in line with market sentiment which I'll run for as long as it looks good - 1day-couple of weeks. To do this I look at the main indicies, NQ and the main sectors driving the markets (semies SMH, oil OIH, Energy XLE, housing RTH . Essentially a bigger picture approach - which is probably for a different thread.

But when the market is too choppy, as it has been end of Nov to Dec. I either stay out completely or look for selective day trades, which as Laytonm has said is a different beast. I've still an eye on the bigger picture and trends, but am now specifically looking for short patterns, L2 (slowly getting to grips with) etc as is discussed on this thread.

This is just my approach though - For example Dvdh's fast fingered approach isn't for me because my brain can't that act that quickly and not make mistakes! But it obviously suits David and is therefore successful.

That's a long winded way of saying I agree with Laytonm!

 

[dvdh]

Hi

I think this is something that a lot of traders try to get to grips with. I think it also depends on whether you are looking for a a few tens of cents or a bigger move. Having said that even if you are scalping you can filter with the longer term trend and only take the moves along the line of least resistance. I habitually have a daily, 30min and 5 min chart open. I tend to know the overall trend of the markets because I swing trade the major index futures in addition to trading stocks.

I think one reason why a lot of people like trading opening gaps is that if a stock has gapped on high volume, then to an extent you can 'ignore' what the rest of the sector or market is doing. I like this because there is less potential for analysis paralysis which I think is a major problem for more complicated strategies.

I think the really important thing here (which I've learning in a painful and costly way in the past)is not not to mix trading strategies / methods. Easily done - I actually have the 'rules' for the different types of trades that I take on posters on the wall behind my screens - stops me forgetting this (mostly). I also have my position sizing sums written up as well. When I neglect these my profit goes down.

Hope this makes sense

Mark

I actually try to suit my trading style to market conditions. Strewthmate, let me tell you, I'd rather go for a buck or two then for scalping pennies 100 times. But sometimes, like the afternoon session yesterday, there's no 20 cent+ movements, except for a couple of course. So I start scalping. 5 cents here, 10 cents here. That'll make up for a good afternoon.
Yesterday for example. I did 6 trades in the first half an hour. All good dollar movers. No scalps. ERTS, GOOG, MRVL etc. In the afternoon session I did like 40 or 50 trades. All scalps.

Mark, if you also trade index futures, then I definately agree on looking at more timeframes. Especially because of the low volatility you need to see the bigger picture.
What do you trade S&P 500? Nasdaq? Russel?
When I started out trading, I traded DAX Futures, They wiped me out once! I can't trade low volatility in futures, but I never tried swingtrading them! What do you think about the US indices? Rally over? It looks like there's a lot of resistance from this point up to the highs? What do you see?

-Dave.

 

[PitBull]

Interesting day ahead

After hours report.

I'm getting ready to RAM RIMM, get my PAY from PAYX and maybe take a BATH in BBBY,

Excuse my bad sense of humour :cheesy:

Paychex (PAYX) 41.25
-0.63
(-1.50%) Co posted Q2 (Nov) earnings of $0.30 per share, a penny better than the Reuters Estimates consensus; revenues rose 15.1% year/year to $399.8 mln (consensus $398.6 mln). Management reaffirmed FY06 EPS growth of 22-24%; reaffirms rev growth 13-15%.


Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 39.18
-2.06
(-5.00%) BBBY reported Q3 (Nov) earnings of $0.45 per share, matching the Reuters Estimates consensus; revenues rose 11.0% year/year to $1.45 bln (consensus $1.47 bln) as comp store sales rose 3.1%.

3 Com (COMS) 3.78
+0.04(+1.07%) 3 Com reported Q2 (Nov) loss of $0.03 per share, including a $0.06 gain and a $0.02 charge. Excluding the items, the comparable actual appears to be ($0.07) vs. the ($0.08) Reuters Estimates consensus; revenues rose 3.8% year/year to $184.3 mln (consensus $190.2 mln). Co also issued guidance, now sees Q3 revenues of $190-195 mln, in line with the $194.60 mln consensus.


Research In Motion (RIMM) 64.95
+3.19
(+5.17%) Co posted Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.71, $0.06 better than the $0.65 First Call consensus; sales rose 14.4% to $560.6 mln (consensus $549.4 mln), gross margins were 55.8% vs. a 52.3% single analyst estimate and subscriber adds were 645K, above prior guidance of 625-653K. Management reaffirmed Q4 EPS of $0.76-0.91 (consensus $0.75) and revenues of $590-620 mln (consensus $603 mln) but cut Q4 subscriber addition guidance to 700-750K.


Red Hat (RHAT) 27.74
+1.18
(4.44%) Co reported Q3 (Nov) earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.09. RHAT reported gross margins of 84% (consensus 83.5%) and enterprise sub revs of $59.6 mln (consensus $59.3 mln).


Dave

On AMZN and GILD. My thoughts are on what DVD has said, shorts look like the flavour. Heavy resistance on GILD at 54 and AMZN too at 49 and big resistance at 50.

As always though, trade what you see not what you think :!:

 

[dvdh]

As always though, trade what you see not what you think :!:

Now that's the nail on the head :!: :!:
I'm bearish on the market. But that doesn't mean we won't see a rally! LOL

-Dave.

 

[laytonm]

Dave

I swing trade the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, and very ocasionally other markets dependant on how they look. I've been in and out of the Nikkei over the last month. I use (with some very minor modifications) Marc Rivallands method of swing trading. Tend to give quite nice tight (chart based) stops and good risk reward. I have to say that I am moving more and more towards shorter term trading because I find the psychology of longer terms trades difficult - more time to ponder the position and make all the mistakes which I know not to make !

Have been recently looking an intraday mini dow scalping mehod which works quite well, but am only testing it at the moment, and, as with anything, it looks pretty good on paper. Remains to be seen whether I'll make any money out of it. For me, at the moment intraday Nasdaq stocks are the most profitable.

Cheers

Mark

I actually try to suit my trading style to market conditions. Strewthmate, let me tell you, I'd rather go for a buck or two then for scalping pennies 100 times. But sometimes, like the afternoon session yesterday, there's no 20 cent+ movements, except for a couple of course. So I start scalping. 5 cents here, 10 cents here. That'll make up for a good afternoon.
Yesterday for example. I did 6 trades in the first half an hour. All good dollar movers. No scalps. ERTS, GOOG, MRVL etc. In the afternoon session I did like 40 or 50 trades. All scalps.

Mark, if you also trade index futures, then I definately agree on looking at more timeframes. Especially because of the low volatility you need to see the bigger picture.
What do you trade S&P 500? Nasdaq? Russel?
When I started out trading, I traded DAX Futures, They wiped me out once! I can't trade low volatility in futures, but I never tried swingtrading them! What do you think about the US indices? Rally over? It looks like there's a lot of resistance from this point up to the highs? What do you see?

-Dave.

 

[dvdh]

Dave

I swing trade the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, and very ocasionally other markets dependant on how they look. I've been in and out of the Nikkei over the last month. I use (with some very minor modifications) Marc Rivallands method of swing trading. Tend to give quite nice tight (chart based) stops and good risk reward. I have to say that I am moving more and more towards shorter term trading because I find the psychology of longer terms trades difficult - more time to ponder the position and make all the mistakes which I know not to make !

Have been recently looking an intraday mini dow scalping mehod which works quite well, but am only testing it at the moment, and, as with anything, it looks pretty good on paper. Remains to be seen whether I'll make any money out of it. For me, at the moment intraday Nasdaq stocks are the most profitable.

Cheers

Mark

Yeah, in my opinion intraday NASDAQ equities are the most profitable around lately. I'm just gonna stay focused on equities, since in most stocks, there's not really a limit on size! 'The only thing I don't like about the NASDAQ is the uptick rule. In a fast moving market, it's sometime a little difficult getting a fill. You can't pay down, like you pay up when you're getting in a long position. So when I make my first 5 million, I'm gonna get my series 7 license, so I can become a marketmaker. They can short without the uptick. Lucky b*stards!! LOL :cheesy:

-Dave.

 

[dvdh]

My watchlist for the open:
aapl
adbe
bbby
bcrx
goog
mrvl
payx
rhat
rimm
tibx
sfcc
finl
amln
osip
petm

Have good one today, guys!!

-Dave

 

[samtron]

Interesting stuff guys! premarket analysis! (this threads getting better everyday IMHO)

Just to be controversial this is what i see on AMZN, (I know I'm going against dvdh. and PitBull )

classic cup and handle, if it breaks watch it shoot for the stars,
but just to cover my *rse, if the handle breaks down it could tank to 48.10

 

[dvdh]

Interesting stuff guys! premarket analysis! (this threads getting better everyday IMHO)

Just to be controversial this is what i see on AMZN, (I know I'm going against dvdh. and PitBull )

classic cup and handle, if it breaks watch it shoot for the stars,
but just to cover my *rse, if the handle breaks down it could tank to 48.10

Ey, that doesn't matter Samtron, the only thing I hope about AMZN is that it moves in some direction! LOL.

-Dave

 

[laytonm]

Sorry Dave

Forgot to add. By my (MRs really) method the ND100 changed from a short term uptrend to a short term downtrend when it went below 1671, but this might well be a trap because of the time of year - with this method sell signals in December are not reliable. The Dow and S&P remain in uptrends, Dow would notionally turn down at 10729 (notionally for the same reason as the ND100). S&P is bit murkier as it's not made a proper swing low by this method.

Cheers

Mark

Dave

I swing trade the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, and very ocasionally other markets dependant on how they look. I've been in and out of the Nikkei over the last month. I use (with some very minor modifications) Marc Rivallands method of swing trading. Tend to give quite nice tight (chart based) stops and good risk reward. I have to say that I am moving more and more towards shorter term trading because I find the psychology of longer terms trades difficult - more time to ponder the position and make all the mistakes which I know not to make !

Have been recently looking an intraday mini dow scalping mehod which works quite well, but am only testing it at the moment, and, as with anything, it looks pretty good on paper. Remains to be seen whether I'll make any money out of it. For me, at the moment intraday Nasdaq stocks are the most profitable.

Cheers

Mark

 

[dvdh]

Sorry Dave

Forgot to add. By my (MRs really) method the ND100 changed from a short term uptrend to a short term downtrend when it went below 1671, but this might well be a trap because of the time of year - with this method sell signals in December are not reliable. The Dow and S&P remain in uptrends, Dow would notionally turn down at 10729 (notionally for the same reason as the ND100). S&P is bit murkier as it's not made a proper swing low by this method.

Cheers

Mark

Okay. We'll see anyway. Have good trading day today. Trade safe, guys!

-Dave.

 

[laytonm]

Today looks promising. I will be looking at these this session.

SFCC & BCRX not on my easy to borrow list. AAPL and SNDK are 'regulars' at the moment for me.

Note the change open (opening price signal) clearly doesn't appear until the open.

Mark

 

[PitBull]

classic cup and handle, if it breaks watch it shoot for the stars,
but just to cover my *rse, if the handle breaks down it could tank to 48.10

I see the cup and handle, but its breaking down pre-market, with 49 as huge resistance.

Lets see what unfolds!!

Roll on the cash registers

GSCO holding support at 48.87, with DBAB and MSCo resistance at 49.07