Upcoming Event Risk discussion

[bbmac]

Uk Q1 GDP prelim Weds

Big data release tomorrow, the eagerly anticipated Uk Q1 Gdp preliminary release. Lots of speculation/discussion in Uk recently re accuracy of oficial data. Last Qtr of 2011 was -0.3% revised down from - 0.2% so any print of -0.1% or lower will likely have a negative knee-jerk (+?) impact on £. Conversely any print better than the +0.1% will likely see some knee-jerk (+?) £ demand and even the widely forecast +0.1% may see same as there is a real sense that this is important not least psychologically to avoid 2 x consecutive Qtrs of negative growth which would put Uk back into a technical recession.

Technically Gbpsd remains in a general opa (overall price action-peak valley analysis) uptrend on 1hr/4hr and on the Daily t/f an upside break of the recent 6061-5803 congestion saw the bullish PA established before it and from 5234 upwards continue . Currently price continues to seem reluctant to break upside and clear of the previous Weekly/daily swing hi zone to 6165 testing deep into that zone. (61.8% 6746-5234 just above @ 6167)

All eyes on this release then which is tomorrow Weds 25th April 0930am.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Uk Q3 GDP prelim

Thursday 0930am London sees the release of Uk's Q3 GDP prelim which in recent times has been derided as an all too in-accurate guide to economic activity partly because of the way it is calculated and partly because many argue it's definition is too narrow. Whatever the case the Uk is always the 1st of the major westerm economies to publish it's preliminary estimate on about 1/2 of the data it finalises the number on sometime after the prelim release.

The Q2 retraction was revised from -0.7% to -0.4% and with forecasts suggesting anything from 0.5% expansion/growth and above the immediate knee-jerk (+?) market reaction re Gbp may be as follows given the 3 scenarios outlined below;

0.2%o or below - this release alwayys has the potential to dissapoint and any small positive number or worse zero or below could see some knee-jerk (+?) £ selling. The lower the print the greater the chances of a strong reaction and the greater the chances of a sustained reaction (barring the pullbacks.) for howsoever long.

0.3 - 0.4% a greater chance of some knee-jerk £ buying than selling but this is more likely at a 0.4% print, - more difficult to say re a 0.3% actual number - here again there is the potential for dissapointment ?

0.5% and higher will most likely see some knee-jerk £ buying and the higher the print the greater the chances of a strong reaction and the greater the chances that thhe knee-jerk reaction will be sustained (barring the pullbacks) for howsoever long.

I will look to get involved on any momentum plays that develop and/or look for the classic buy the 1st lo/sell the 1st pullback -or conversely- the classic sell the 1st hi/buy the 1st pullback data/news reaction - should hi-probability lo-risk opportunities present themselves on the lower t/f's consistent with my own trading edge - this more likely on a strong market reaction either way.

From a trader's point of view lets hope for -0.2% or +0.8% then !

G/L

 

[glyder]

Maybe the figure will be at the higher end...

Did David Cameron break law by letting slip growth figures? - Telegraph

then again maybe not