Sharky
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Great, thanks Atilla.
Atilla
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Latest forecast results...
Added Panorama poll (not included in comp., for the beers) for interest comparison only.
Also, added averages for all forecasts as the T2W poll to see how the pack compares to rest. Expect it to be well skewed as the sample size, no doubt consists of top 1% crème de la crème of UK's trading population.
Prize: 12 Pack of Beer
Added Panorama poll (not included in comp., for the beers) for interest comparison only.
Also, added averages for all forecasts as the T2W poll to see how the pack compares to rest. Expect it to be well skewed as the sample size, no doubt consists of top 1% crème de la crème of UK's trading population.
Prize: 12 Pack of Beer
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counter_violent
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Go on then...lets have a punt.
Cons.............289
Labour.......... 262
Lib-Dem......... 27
UKIP............... 4
SNP ...............50
Turnout......... 68%
Cons.............289
Labour.......... 262
Lib-Dem......... 27
UKIP............... 4
SNP ...............50
Turnout......... 68%
counter_violent
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it figures that the bloomin' map shows more labour supporters up norf.
That's cos all the money gets spent darn sarff....not rocket science is it !
hhiusa
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Fiscal Policy
Due tell! Why is more spent down south than up north?
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/aug/07/london-gets-24-times-as-much-infrastructure-north-east-england
It does make sense why they would do this, to me anyway. You're right it is not rocket science innit!
Due tell! Why is more spent down south than up north?
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/aug/07/london-gets-24-times-as-much-infrastructure-north-east-england
It does make sense why they would do this, to me anyway. You're right it is not rocket science innit!
P
postman
Heres an interesting article
http://www.mrtopstep.com/are-we-right-about-the-u-k-general-election/
To save you lazy gits, sorry hard working traders the trouble here is one fact from all of the polls in the last election.
"absolute seat error is not the only such measure of error we could use, but it’s a reasonable one, so we’ll stick with it for now. Of the six published pre-election forecasts that Political Betting compared in 2010, the best had a total seat error of 51 and the worst — none other than FiveThirtyEight — had a total seat error of 105."
If your total is closer than 51 you beat the best of the best and could have a careerer in forecasting.
http://www.mrtopstep.com/are-we-right-about-the-u-k-general-election/
To save you lazy gits, sorry hard working traders the trouble here is one fact from all of the polls in the last election.
"absolute seat error is not the only such measure of error we could use, but it’s a reasonable one, so we’ll stick with it for now. Of the six published pre-election forecasts that Political Betting compared in 2010, the best had a total seat error of 51 and the worst — none other than FiveThirtyEight — had a total seat error of 105."
If your total is closer than 51 you beat the best of the best and could have a careerer in forecasting.
YouAreNotFree
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288 - Conservative
261 - Labour
29 - Lib-Dem
3 - UKIP
42 - SNP
69% turnout
261 - Labour
29 - Lib-Dem
3 - UKIP
42 - SNP
69% turnout
P
postman
Not wanting to be labled "Mr Rules" but if you read the first post,
"Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself."
Atilla
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Less than 24 hours to go...
Anyone else up for the comp?
Think Election 15 and celebrating on a sunny Friday afternoon with a beer in hand :drunk:
Here is the comp blurb from Pat Riley...
We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.
Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.
Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.
Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.
I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.
I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.
Anyone else up for the comp?
Think Election 15 and celebrating on a sunny Friday afternoon with a beer in hand :drunk:
Here is the comp blurb from Pat Riley...
We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.
Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.
Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.
Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.
I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.
I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.
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alexaherself
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Atilla
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Yes - thank you (I have no idea how to predict turnout!).
Not much excitement about these elections at all
So I'm turning my turnout down to 63%.
Atilla
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Well this is embarrassing. :-0
There are only 650 seats and I've guessed 669 seats in total... So that means I have -19 handicap before we even start counting.
This link shows an interactive map of the count...
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-uk-election/
In case the BBC's Emily on the touch screen doesn't saturate your appetite for information overload...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32592297
There is almost a party atmosphere about these elections... Could do with couple of beers now actually
Interactive wow!!!
http://bbc-vip.touchcast.com/embed/19874?autoplay=1
:-0 There are only 650 seats and I've guessed 669 seats in total... So that means I have -19 handicap before we even start counting.
This link shows an interactive map of the count...
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-uk-election/
In case the BBC's Emily on the touch screen doesn't saturate your appetite for information overload...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32592297
There is almost a party atmosphere about these elections... Could do with couple of beers now actually
Interactive wow!!!
http://bbc-vip.touchcast.com/embed/19874?autoplay=1
P
postman
Your really having a bad day / week.
Youve counted "turnout %" as seats in your totals.
Except for yours.
Forexmospherian
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Well I am in the money on the GU
Looks as though the inside info on exit poll was leaked after 7 20 am tonight
Last time exit Poll was 100% correct
Will it be this time ??
GU up now over 200 pips from after 7 00 pm
Looks as though the inside info on exit poll was leaked after 7 20 am tonight
Last time exit Poll was 100% correct
Will it be this time ??
GU up now over 200 pips from after 7 00 pm
