Tullibody's Blog

[Tullibody]

May 8 and such pain

If you miss the alarm clock or get to the terminal flustered and out of sorts, it is a reasonable maxim not to trade. Ne c'est pas? Well I ignored that of course and had a morning of paying for it. Several very nice things had evidently been signaled before I got going (instantly off balance psychologically). As all the main European indices (Dax, Stoxx, Foots) seemed to be breaking out of range, went long all three. Short time later all three crashed and I was lucky to get out down 37 and stunned. Tried the Foots again and the same thing happened (twas the interest rate announcement), lost 7 but fortunately jumped on the cable at about 18 to book 20 -- could have been more if I had been in quicker or chanced it when it started wobbling. After a break took advantage of some SMA crosses to get 2 long the Foots, 10 the Swiss and 20 short cable which meant I was only six ticks off even.
Then a wheel came off. All day I had been slightly in the wrong place at the wrong time, just missing signals, coming in late, going out too soon (although I say bag the profit rather than risk losing it and/or sitting there fretting). Signal was short the Swiss after some dithering it fell and I lost 17; then it rallied, got in again and lost 9. This time I reversed out (despite all oaths to the contrary) and was lucky to get five. Suddenly ending the day even-to-ahead was miles away. The last trade compounded the sickness. Took the cable long again at 1.6029; it flaffed around there for 20-25 mins then slid through what seemed to be a support. Offski with a loss of 6 only to watch dumbstruck as the market rebounded and within five minutes offered a surefire profit of 10. Ayy yai yai.

 

[Helenqu]

Calm down. Take a step back and get your head together over the weekend. Sounds like you are trying to do too much, why not concentrate on one market and one set up for a while?

 

[Tullibody]

Tullibody rides again (but only after the saddle s

Showered and switched on before 0800; yesterday's messy performance is hopefully a learning thing rather than a hindrance. The plan as before is to trade on breakouts and reverses using stochs, RSI and moving averages.
The first trade at 0809 is the Swiss short at 32 after it goes through support, SMAs etc; it weakens obediently and while still in, go long (a bit late) on a squeeze on the cable at 76 which continues to squeeze.
The day's first crisis quickly follows as the Swiss reverses and, determined not to turn a profit into a loss, I bail at 30 to book two ticks. The cable meanwhile is in the 90s a buyer and Swiss has weakened again to the low 20s.
Dump the cable as it retreats to book six, still smarting somewhat at the beastly nature of the Swiss (now offered in the teens!).
After a check across the markets decide at approx 0830, the Dax is due a run. Having revisited the plot, I fail to see why; anyway in long at 2919 and not much later after some typical Dax flaffing, out again at 08 to be three down overall and still glancing wistfully at the profits spurned on the Swiss franc.
Bit disgruntled (and vulnerable!) catch short the cable at 63 which is still weakening after its top at 95. Then a move I thought I had sworn off for life; back into the Dax this time short at 2903.
Can't believe it, seconds later that the cable is up to 83 a buyer and still rising; Dax is firming too.
Incredibly the horrors of this week and many many weeks before helped steady the ship. Decide to stand pat the cable even although it was still heading up toward 00. It didn't make it as the previous top at 95 did its job. Stochastoics and RSI also showed oomph was way weaker than the last time and it began to weaken. The Dax also after a long long struggle got through 2900 southward. At 1.6071 with the studies supportive, sold another cable (v. risky, I know) and after crashing several supports down to 20s offered, it began to bounce. Took profit at 1.6034 and got out of the Dax at 2871 to book 98 points and 95 net the morning.
Just after 10 disconnected for some VERY serious preening rather than tempt the market gods.
This was still a less than perfect dealing session but thankfully some of the things demonstrated this week were acked but more faith and patience needed.
Sadly that's me finished for foreseeable future as stepfather exceeding ill and I am off to lend support.
Keep the faith, brothers and sisters.

 

[Trader333]

Hi Tullibody,

You seem to place a large number of trades. Have you considered narrowing the focus a little ? I find that there are just a many opportunites but I am more selective in the ones that I take.

Paul

 

[Tullibody]

Tks Paul. You mean like just watching a coupla markets rather than seven?

 

[Tullibody]

Back again and going ga ga

For some reason the software or whateveritis thinks I'm somebody else and rejects this entry. Maybe it doesn't want readers corrupted by a litany of cock ups. Too bad. Betting today reflected two week of nursemaiding two 80+ plus year olds.
here's how I blew some very good entries....
AM, just missed break outs on the cable and euro so rather than (logically) wait for pull backs, dived in and waited through the pull back onm the cable (eventually got four points) but euro slipped and lost 12. Then impulsively bought the $-Swiss and lost 8; reversed on the bounce and lost 9. Seething end to morning.
Decided the Dax was the index most likely to develop and sustain a rally pre US opening. It did and got 5 before US open caused all kinds of turbulence. The the Foots broke a long standing top; long at 3937 but a wobble made me bail in a panic to lose 5. Much profanity as it immediately recovered and long again same level. This time a panicky 6-point profit on a pull back. Long again at 50; same thing a panic-driven exit at 55. Ridiculous waste.
Cable shows failure swing at its high and short it a 1.6435; take 16 when it bounces a bit and short it again at 10 after miscalculating day's position to make a proft of 5 overall when it should have been about 100.
Om shanti

 

[Trader333]

Tullibody,

Do you have any plan before entering a trade ? and if you do have a plan do you stick to it ? Reading the above it appears that all your trades were done on impulse. I dont know of any successful traders who trade on impulse, maybe I am being a bit harsh or not understanding the above properly but it does appear a bit disjointed. If you dont have a plan can I suggest that before entering a trade you plan exactly how you will manage it and then try and stick to it. I think you will find a lot less panic from yourself if you know in advance what you will do given any eventuality.

Cheers


Paul

 

[Tullibody]

A nightmare!

And not a nightmare of my making! Sometime this PM the computer, line, somethingoranother, crashed leaving me with several positions open. The net cost was a loss of 37 points from collapsing longs on the Dax and Foots.The self imposed losses were almost as spectacular, however --34 from a stupidity I thought had been purged years ago. A slightly impulsive (!) short on the cable went against me so I reversed the position and got caught in the pull back -- for about the 1,000th time over the years. In fact I am sure that is the biggest single source of loss known to the trading/spreadbetting classes.
Nonetheless, noting Paul's comment from yesterday on planning(qv), I was more circumspect today and weathered a grinding 30 points from a long yen -- taking the profit an hour before (it sat in a 6-point throughout the interval) the market shot off for another 100 or so, naturally. Also persevered with a slippery cable short from 58 to 40 which took ages and crawled upwards with the Dax from 2925 to book 15 points as it started to weaken. Also set many alerts on d4f's clever system and only once plunged in on the alert alone -- a long on the yen at 118.63 after a huge upthrust. Obviously it retraced and footered about for ages, twice got back to level and I gave in just before it managed to get up to 73 for a couple ticks. Lucky to get out alive really.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

and also....

Forgot to include a 35-point profit from a short cable well set up by a failure swing as the RSI did its job which is what got out ahead. Cheers all.

 

[Tullibody]

Cable throws lifeline

This is the second attempt at filing this so no spell checks and fancy stuff. The one piece of modest intelligence shown today got me out at a profit and disguised some ridiculous spoofing, ineptitude and buffoonery which had hitherto build up a fair sized loss. Two examples -- eschewed a cracking run on the dlr-swiss early on having decided the RSI wasn't high enough or something stupid when the market was gagging for a run. It did. Then Foots broke out, but smartly waited for the pull back which came along taking it down to 4055. Get aboard! but no...something about the cable and dlr-yen had more appeal so one long one short (yes, the jaws are opening.....) and coupla minutes later one falls and the other rises. Outta there despite earlier despite plan to risk 15 points per trade. Books 19-point loss as both markets revert to expected directions and do well. Even lost on the Eurostoxx -- the drying paint of spread betting -- along with some minor successes and losses before the cable saved the day.
It came off a high bounced and broked out of a narrow-ish range when I incredibly DID wait for a retracement before jumping in, at 1.6416 as it happens. A few scares, but perfect behaviour apropos resistance and support at 0s and 5s basically. Hoping for 30,40 points in the book and after a couple of failures took 40 at 1.6456, fully expecting support to emerge at 45 bid. It did but took me til 59 a buyer to get back on. Bit of spoofing followed before a run past 00 failed twice and at 1530 planned quitting time, I gratefully took the money at 1.6483.
Not pretty but a profit is a profit.
Om shanti.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Hi Tulibody. I enjoy reading your journal I hope the trading is more enjoyable than it seems. This might be a stupid question but what is the 'cable' you refer to?

 

[Tullibody]

thanks big bus. tis the pound-dollar. bsts

 

[Tullibody]

character building or what....

This is the THIRD attempt to do this entry; keep getting refused by the blanking software whatis. After THIS afternoon too.
Right with controlled rage and no spell checks......
Sitting there contemplating a profit of 60+ points on the week with a short dlr-swiss minding its own business when the doorbell range. Coupla mins later its 50 points against the short and going like stink. Offski. had Dubya croacked or what?
So that was the week's profit boshed.
earlier good things relatively speaking. First bet was short the cable as it came out of a pennant southwards at 1.6526. Got support at 96 and after 00 failed to hold I get 14 in the book -- min profit planned was 15. So good-o.
Then went long cable basis strength of the bounce but 25 held it and out flat. Short again (getting a bit silly but wait...) at 12 and down through 00 and decent profit on the cards when long pause inprice stream occurs just after a bounce (90-ish) next tick is 98 What? Take the money.
First real mistake coming up.....go short again at 82 or whatever and whoosh up to 98; bye bye but didn't notice last time that was the reaction high and it holds again. Anyway that's 16 binned.
tidy the files and a game of freeserve.
PM nice little break out by dlr-swiss long at 1,2941 -- shoulda waited for the pull back to 30/35 support but no matter (yet). Off past 60 and nice profit foreseen especially as plenty of support evident at 55-60. The support caves and don't hit the sell button till 43. Wasta money. Books 2.
Apparently southwards is the dlr-swiss's new thing. Hence the short. Ding dong and you know the rest.
Couple of good things or is my middle name Pollyanna?
1. pull backs are really worth waiting for...
2. be patient and wait for good singals on the plost and studies
3. be aware of what the market hs done recently re tops floors, support resistance
4. be a little flexible re minimum profit taregets/stops; many times this week I have held off on the predetermined figure for the price to go my way again.
Of course we know THAT you say. I know it too but I have to experience it to believe it...over and over and over again.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

Taken on trust and trounced

Against all usual cynicism and contrariness, took it as read becasue the clever boys were saying so, that hte Foots would have a bit of squeeze today given do-jo's late flurish Friday and comments ex G-8 which I thought were nebulous but still. So tried to go long at 4097 blew it and got on at 103 whereupon blew out and slipped; up again and decided against all other strictures to bet another one at 96. Blew out again and after 90 support bid went should probably have gone but held on for a little longer and took a few points more of a loss. Typical messy, sloppy start to a Monday. No excuses and when it was clear that nothing else knew what to do either and my head was ga-ga anyway, went to yoga class. Still no idea what's happening. There's ay another day, fellow punters.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

Low key, low profit

Been very busy on other work the last coupla days so have managed but two bets both of which I more or less cocked up. To wit. Tuesday early had a quite well considered long on the cable -- it broke out, I bought on the dip and off we go. After I was in profit to about 15-16 points rally turned back and bumped coupla times off a resistance. Obviously that should have been it for me but I held on and then scrambled out with one point when the whole deal fell down. It went a lot further so short term at least could have beem worse. Not clever though.
This AM was uncomfortably similar. Very chuffed to buy when the dlr-swiss came back to a support after it had poked above a previous high and again I was too slow to get out when it came back from PREcisely where I knew first resistance (at a profit of about 18) would be. OBviously I thought it would get through on the second or third run. However the support which was offering a profit at about 8 or 9 points suddenly broke, I took 3 (!) and the wretched thing immediately went back to testing resistance!
Only good thing was that I much more astutely that usual used 30 min and five min plots for this trade.
Nothing tomorrow unfortunately as it looks like a good knee jerk day with BOMC and European bank clocking rates.
Om shanti.

 

[Tullibody]

good end to the week

Again only had one bet today but a bit more profitably than on Tues and Wed. Shortly before 0800 the cable was pushing against resistance at around 1.6640. It squeazed up a couple of points and given a fairly bullish look to the 30 min candle chart decided to have a punt BUT craftily waited until it started pulling back before plunging. It looked like support should be about 20 offered and indeed a bounce there took me in at 26. But the support in fact has at 5-10. Hung in knowing as I should have waited longer. Good run started taking me into profit, I had figured the market should get past previous high at aboout 50 bid and if it did I would hold on for 35-40 profit. In fact it got close to 70 bid before it started wobbling and after a couple of slips I took my profit at 66 bid for the 40 at about 0900. Quite happy and ended the week just in front.
A couple of points however. Earlier in the week I would have gone in even earlier and lost. Second earlier in the week (in fact several times in the past) I have put on a second bet if I have been in above support; on Monday I did and lost; today I didn't and would have won. Third after I got out the market (two-three mins later) continued its run and topped at about 1.6706-11 -- another 40-points profit potentially. Should I have waited? I did on Tues and Wed and had profit reduced to single figures.
One key reason I got 40 points and not more was due to the tension created by going in too early. Wait for more of a pull back and it would have been a whole different world this morning psychologically speaking.
Getting there.
Om shanti, fellow punters.

 

[Tullibody]

Three up, one down but....

This is my third attempt to post so it will be almost pointlessly brief. There were four trades -- long cable (+34), long dlr-swiss (+8), long cable (-5) and short dlr-swiss (+1) but only the winning long cable trade in honesty was properly considered. I was amazed to see after being away on Monday a 200+ southward plot on the 30-min cable charts and reasonably assumed there would be a reaction. Support at 1.6430 held overnight and by 0800 attempts to break above 1.6500 looked like succeeding. A reasonable target was a previous high at 1.6555-60. Went long at 96 and after anticipated resistance at 15-20 had a good run up. BUT! Didn't spot a rising gap at 40-44 overnight and that stopped the rise. On the pullback took 34 at 30 whereupon, a bounce to the gap resistance.
What should have happened next was that I just watched cable until it came back to the (new) support around 15-20 then got back aboard if it held -- which it did and tested the 70s for what would have been a good profit if the nerve had held.
Instead I went long at 40 (!) having not fully clocked the gap resistance yet and lost five after a long struggle. Then as it broke through support went short dlr-swiss and after another long and annoying strop, got out with +1. Meanwhile the cable support had held and it was beginning to rise -- sans moi, obviously.
Earlier I had gone long (shouldn't have done) the dlr-swiss as it broke northwards at about 1.3162 for what should have been a fairly clear run to the 80s if not further. It snagged at 70-ish and I took 8 although it did spike up to about 82 bid very very briefly.
That and thinking I should have got more from the first long cable deal unblanaced me slightly hence the other two trades.
But more analysis, more planning than before. A few more deep breaths needed now before the hand-wallet impulse takes hold.
Too tired to do any more; net 38 will do me.
Om shanti, punters.

 

[Tullibody]

Bulls prosper, bears prosper, hogs get slaughtered

So runs the market adage. In this case hogs retreat for a bout of intense self-flagellation after bollocksing a potentially perfect trade. Read on...
30 min overnight chart of dlr-swiss taken at about 0745 showed market pretty much confirming support at 1.3100-15 and standing a really good chance of getting up to previous top around 1.3175 bid as a target. Right-o.
Only mitigation was that somehow line to/d4f kit was bit sticky and needed disconnect before sorting out. When that was done dlr-swiss was up to 1.3130-35 and motoring. But with a little patience (!) got on in a pull back at 32. The ride to 1.6267 bid was a doozy and took under 30 mins then it started to wobble a bit while I focused manically on 75 a seller as my target. Didn't happen. To keep the confidence up support about half way down the big yang plot held as expected and occasional bounced to about 55 bid. But there was no re-test of the top and when the 40-45 support caved in it was a scramble to get out at 34. A profit of about 35 becomes a profit of 2. Pathetic.
Meanwhile an equally predictable breakout on the cable had sailed up 60 points in as many minutes.
A lesson leaned. At least I know it has happened to many including the most successful. Just something not to repeat too often.....
Rather than risk chasing the market in a mood, going to pull the plug out and meet cousin for lunch.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

Another dead hog, then one tries flight

This was a patchy morning in which a mistake changed everything and then a piece of personal stupidity wrecked a long and patient recovery. Took on the cable long at 1.6746 as it tried to breakthrough 50; it did, ran for a while and came back. Remembering yesterday’s result, I took 10 points before it jetted off and eventually tested 90 bid. There were opportunities to get back aboard but I never felt really confident or focused enough more to the point, to have a go. Rather discouraging; even 15-20 would have been available without going into any real angst.
Then I made one of these stupid mistakes that seems destined to haunt me for ever. Thought the market had shot its bolt when a very high flying candlestick plot formed and I went short at 1.6762. It was a bear trap and within minutes the upward trajectory was re-established and I bailed at 73 losing 11 to reverse into a long which promptly lost another 21 putting me 22 down on the day quite unnecessarily.
There had been an hour or so of playing at bouncing from 75 offered to 95 four times and on the final “75” the boys stayed out. Could I have gone short then? It still had to get past the mid-point support of the major 15-min yang plot and when it finally did I got on short at 1.6752 targeting the major support area at 1.6715-20. An hour and seven minutes later it got there after many reversals and a steady acceleration from about 36 offered down to the high 20s to bring the target into range.
A fatal error occurred. At 22, 21 I was all set to hit the close bottom when it went next to 19. Hesitates. 21, 23, 22, 25 etc and eventually got out at 35 thus still losing 5 on the day. Utterly dreadful after patience and planning.
Off to yoga class in the huff.
Revived, went short cable on a sqeeze up to 1.6785 when it was caught in a range after support at 70-75 possibly 65 and a yin candle resistance at 95ish had been tested.
A few scares but it eventually got there and on the second offering a closed to get 10 and five on the day. Vindicated.
It wasn’t the money so much as the discipline. Market bounced thereafter but I wasn’t interested.
Om shanti

 

[Tullibody]

Bite first, ask later

Just one trade completed the week on a high note for morale and funds.
On the cable again which was no choice really given manic swings on the dlr-swiss, torpor on the yen and no more than the same potential with more risk (I estimated) on the euro.
Basically it had been testing some fairly lumpy support around 1.6700 offered – the midpoint roughly of an overnight yang candle on the 30 min plot and previously lots of closes going back to mid afternoon Thursday. Rally to 5/10 seeming to confirm the support then came back to 00 and 99 offered bounced, slipped; on at 04.
The obvious target was the overnight high at about 34/39 but serious problems were likely 10-15 below that in the middle of the very long yin candle coming down from the top to under 10 bid. I wanted out at 25 bid to make my week and me happy
There was an additional hurdle after a few mins, at 11/16 according to the d4f feed, market sat for about 12 mins then next tick was 8/13 and falling.
Eventually though squeezed higher with significant selling and as expected hit serious resistance around 25 offered; 29 offer came up once then well south followed by a more forthright move up.
On the first sighting of 25 bid the snout was in the trough and I was gone, maw well filled.
A lesson learned – plan, bite and ask questions later.
So that was +67 points on the week comprising Monday no business; Tuesday +34, -5, +8, +1 = +38; Wednesday +2; Thursday +10, -11, -21, +17, +11 = +6; Friday +21.
Total trades: 11 winners 8 losers 3. Ave win 13; Ave loss12.33
No more today ; off to yoga retreat weekend.
Om shanti, tout le mond.