TRM (Trade Risk Management)

[tradertim]

Syed, if you mean Nexgen`s T-3 Fibs ProTrader, then yes, earlier this year I took up their offer of a free trial. I seem to recall this included 2 or 3 weeks in their live trading site/chatroom, and 1 or 2 weeks using the actual program. You also neede to sign-up with TradeStation to provide a running platform & data for the trial, which cost around $25 (p.s. you need to cancel TS trial or they`ll keep charging you - in fact they did this even tho` I had cancelled!).

The rationale behind the program is the identification of fibonacci confluence zones, by calculating hundreds of fibonacci retracements & projections over multiple timeframes and seeing where the largest number of these coincide. You could do this manually, but you`d probably end up with a confused chart full of lines, or forget to look at longer term timeframes such as weekly/monthly charts.

The confluence zones are presumed to be high probability turning points in whatever markets or stocks you are following. The program also comes with a number of proprietary technical indicators, which are used to support any decision to enter or exit a trade at these confluence zones. You can see how these work in a number of tutorials at Nexgen`s website.

Whilst their system appears impressive on paper, there are a number of drawbacks in practice. Firstly, the program has numerous variables - e.g. you can add/delete minor fibonacci levels in each of four separate categories: retracements, alternates, extensions & expansions. Even small adjustments to one or two of these variables can produce a very different result, which tends to sap confidence in the significance of the confluence zones appearing on your chart. Secondly, each & every market/stock seems to involve manually running the calculations and then filtering these out onto your trading chart every day.

One day shortly after signing up for my trial, I noticed that the major turning point for the day, in the S&P500, had occurred more or less exactly at two fibonacci retracement points drawn using the highs & lows of the previous day and previous two days respectively. However, looking at Nexgen`s live trading room, there were no confluence zones showing on their chart anywhere near this area. I asked the Principal of Nexgen (via chat room) why this was, but his reply was arrogant & unhelpful, including the words "you are 100% wrong" (about my observation that most active traders would be looking at the fib levels I`d seen). His only substantive answer was that his system chose only highly significant confluence zones, and not just any low probability ones like I`d pointed out!

I concluded that the program was much too flawed to be of any use to me, but I suppose it might appeal to some given that it includes fairly definite rules to determine when to enter/exit, injecting a degree of discipline into trading. For most people the biggest drawback will be the cost - can`t remember the figure but it was breathtaking! Also TradeStation isn`t cheap.

 

[syed]

Thanks for your time and resonse. I can make my decision now, the programe cost $7000 which is very expensive,

Syed

 

[pepcidine2004]

what is the web site of voodoo chooks

coud you tell me the web site of voodoo chooks or if not contact details of beb wendell to purchase his indicators , please

 

[Greg Hughes]

coud you tell me the web site of voodoo chooks or if not contact details of beb wendell to purchase his indicators , please

http://voodoo_chook.tripod.com/tools/index.html

 

[DEC]

Has anyone subscribed to this service?I believe they have a Forex site as well.

Their predictions are based,they say,on Hurst Cycles.

I can only find obscure articles about Hurst.Anyone know anything about him?

For me the only way to try TRM was to suscribe myself and learn it. It is not easy to understand at the begining, it takes work to find trades with low risk, but the system works. It is very accurate.

 

[4xpipcounter]

John, my whole-hearted endorsement is on their front page. I wrote that in 2007. I stopped subscribing to them only because my methodology became fully developed and no longer felt the need to keep my subscription. Having said that, I am honestly considering subscribing again.
I have worked with a few people in properly trading using their service. If you decide on getting the 14-day service for $2.95, then I will be happy to work with you, and you will be amazed!
I don't get paid for this worthy endorsement of thier service. Needless to say, they know who I am. Let them know when you subscribe, you will share your login information and/or the charts with me, if you decide to want to work with me. They will also getting you a discount if you mention my name. Regular price is $149.95 per month, and worth it. But, your price will be substantially less.
BTW, they do claim the plus + or - 2 and 3 sigma has a 98% and 99% respective chance of a bounce. You also won't get the immediate bounce. This is where the cirvilinear envelopes and the decomposition charts come in real handy. After all, if the CE is still climbing a the hill, and the sigma bands are +2, then it is still not time to get in.
Any rate, let me know how things are going, You can PM me if you want with any details.

Has anyone subscribed to this service?I believe they have a Forex site as well.

Their predictions are based,they say,on Hurst Cycles.

I can only find obscure articles about Hurst.Anyone know anything about him?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: TRM

If it's a strong uptrend, then price will keep moving up, while still staying at the +2 or +3 .This is where I confer with the CE's. If they are still going up, then it is still not time for the entry. If the sigma chart is still flowing upward, then the deviations are going with it. This is why even the sigma bands are interpretive.

johnk49,

It`s a while since I subscribed to TRM, but I seem to remember prices on US index charts staying above their +2/3 sigma bands for about 3 months (on longer term sigma band charts) during the period when there was a strong upward trend in force last year. Even when the price drops below these bands there is of course no guarantee that they`ll retrace back to any great degree, especially if there is a strong underlying long term trend in force. On the shorter term signal band charts, subject to the previously mentioned caveat about the adaptive nature of the system, prices seemed to react to the sigma lines in a more immediate way, but by the time you`d observed this (on end of day charts) and the crossover of the signal line (like a moving average crossover), the larger part of the move had often already occured.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: TRM

Watch for the overall directional bias of the sigma bands and check with the bias on the cirvilinear envelopes. You might get in the trade a little late by waiting, but is still worth it, considering you are almost guaranteed price will find its way back to the median line. I admit to cheating when I use the TRM bands. I melted in my methodology and wait for certain S or R's to be hit before asceertaining an entry.
Keep in mind, not even the TRM bands can tell you this is the exact point we get a reversal. It will not give you anything on a silver platter. What it does mean is that once those extremities have been hit, the reversal will be huge. Look at last week's candle for the euro, cable, uassie, and kiwi. That's the kind of action you get when +2 or higher is hit.

Thanks for the feedback fellas.
Tradertim,you bring up some interesting points,you say when prices get to the 2nd or 3rd band it can take a long time before they reverse.How long is a"long time"?If it is,say,a month or so then it would be suitable for doing credit spreads,particularly if the prices do indeed reverse 98% of the time.Anyway I have browsed their site and find it a bit curious that everyone who has sent a testimonial have also given their email address.Interesting!!!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: TRM

All you can do is try it side-by-side with your trial subscription. Ben Dover has a case against him if it does not provide equi-results.

It may be a coincidence, but today I received an e-mail from TRM warning about alternative providers of Sigma Bands. It says they are based on "polynomial regression and not critical analysis" and that others are using "pretty questionable ideas concerning momentum"...... and no, I don`t know what that means either,
but I thought you should know. TRM say that they`re consulting their lawyers, so it looks like Ben Dover is about to get shafted.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: TRM / Travis Mijat

This is what I meant before in by cheating in amalgamating my methodology with a more accurate entry. Also, don't forget, TRM bands are 5 indicators in one.

I didn't subscribe, but got a free 2-week trial. I agree that the sigma bands weren't reactive enough. Worse, there is no law to say that they may not go to the 4th or 5th sigma after a few months. So during my free trial I decided to filter the signals thru the Fibonacci levels. If a Fibonacci cluster occurred at the 2nd. or 3rd. sigma band, I expected a quick reaction from those areas. I also added a simple 2-bar reversal pattern as the trigger to trade. As luck would have it, I got an alert for the cattles, having reached sigma 3. I have a friend who owns the NexGen T-3 and he told me there was a Fibo cluster nearby. I then waited for the 2-bar chart reversal to appear before entering the trade. The rest is history, thanks to mad cows. Before subscribing I discovered that Jan Aarps was selling the sigma indicators for $695 which represented 4 months of subscriptions. So what do I do? Buy 4 months of milk or buy the cow? Tradertim was correct when he said that the other vendors might be selling "polynomial" maths. But this isn't a crime, and in any case I was combining those sigma alerts with Fibonacci clusters and chart pattern. Believe it or not. I didn't buy the sigma indicators nor subscribe to TRM. Instead I bought an interesting set of similiar indicators from the land of Oz....The Voodoo Chooks by Bob Wendell in Perth. (A$800). I will not try to influence you with any rave report. Just check out his website and see if the Voodoo Chooks suit your trading style.

By the way, Travis Mijat is also from Perth. He has nothing to do with sigma bands. His forte is with Elliott waves, having worked some years ago with Richard Sanwell supporting the Elliott Wave Analyser. Now Richard offers an Elliott Certification Course for $4000 using almost identical methods of analysis as Travis.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Bingo! That's why the slope of the bands has to be considered. I also still go back to checking regualrly weith the decomp and CE charts, before getting to antsy about an entry.
I had to learn that the hard way on a short I had on the EUR/NZD in 2006. But then, that is what happens when you try to use the service without fully familiarizing yourself with it.

Please be careful when you dabble with statistics if you don't fully understand their derivations. For example, if a trend has been established using Linear Regression and you plot lines at 1 or 2 standard deviations (sigma) from the regression line, you can make statements about the percentage chances of a price going outside the standard deviations. The mistake people make is to assume that there is a high probability of the price returning towards the central line. As stated by others, this is only true if the original trend is still valid. If the trend that generated the standard deviations is broken, the price may never recover. I know this to my cost having bought Marconi at 2 sigma below an upward trend line, assuming it would recover. It didn't, ever!
regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Trm

Daza, that tells you how outstnading the TRM bands service is when you have so many poeple trying to replicate it.
Good post!

Hi, this is my first message on this board but I feel that I want to add my quota regarding the TRM service.

Successful traders are not perfectionists: they know they will have losing trades, so they act
accordingly using money management, Stop losses and professional tools to give them high probability trades, The perfect trading system or approach does not exist. Which is a good thing in my opinion.

Any good trader now's not to really on one tool; therefore one should not just rely on the signals from the TRM service (for example) to be accurate all the time.

But when combined with other good fundamental trading tools then in my opinion (And please this is just my Opinion) TRM is an out standing service.

I find that the sigma bands From TRM gives me that edge and confidence to pull the trigger in position trading and day trading.

If you are interested in how I trade with the TRM service then please post you email address and i shall send it to you.

Oh and NO before any one says it, I have no connection with TRM or any one else selling trading products, Nor do I receive any moneys from any affiliate program. I am just a private trader trying to make a living in the UK and if I can help any one on the way then so be it.

DAZA

PS. I have tryed the other services that have been talked about on this thread and none of them have been as accurate or consistent as the TRM service.

 

[DEC]

Re: Trm

John and everyone who wants to find out if these charts work or not, lets test them together, find today's charts and follow up its development at the en of week.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-some-my-trades-forecasts-89.html#post1232118

 

[herbhodel]

Re: TRM

I subscribed to & papertraded TRM for 3 months. As with most technical analysis the historic charts seem to work very well, but when using the system in realtime flaws become apparent. In particular their charts are "adaptive", so that for one or two days their "signal line" (on the medium term sigma band charts, or shorter term signal band charts) may show an entry signal, but after factoring in the next day or two`s data that signal can often disappear. Also, when prices cross over the +/- 2 or 3 sigma band lines (which are standard deviations from a long term trend line) they can often stay there for a very long time or continue in their prior trend, rather than reversing within days as implied by TRM (their website confidently states a 98% or 99% probability of a reversal at these lines, which may be mathematically correct, but it doesn`t mean the reversal will occur right away). The "cycle decomposition charts" & "curvilinear envelopes" are interesting, supposedly for gauging the current trend, but in practice of limited use, due again to the adaptive nature of the indicators. I did observe the sigma bands working very well on a few occasions, but in my experience the signals given by the system weren`t reliable enough for me to use them as a stand-alone trading system, and their monthly fees were too high to keep subscribing as a secondary system to help confirm other trade signals. TRM allow you to try out their system for only $2.95 for 14 days, so I suggest you give it a try. If their testimonials are to be believed many of their subscribers love the system. The guru who developed the system from Hurst`s work, James Maggio, is very helpful if you have any questions.

tradertim used trm for 2 yrs thought it was great but not updated quick enough. now they quit do u know any syms like it? enjoyed your articile

 

[zoom25]

If you are looking for sigma bands for your own analysis, download the demo version of Wealth-lab 3.0, aguy called Ben Dover has programmed them in Chartscript.
Wealth-Lab.NET - Home
esignal also provide them as an add on, the link below provides some info on how they should be used.
eSignal Central: eSignal Product Training

Wealth lab 3 and 4 did not work with Vista and the 5 6 versions are the Bands not inside.So any solution ???

 

[prasanna_ppl]

Hello All

I am new to this site. While searching about TRM I came across this site and interesting posts. After May 2012, there is no post here. I wonder, whether my post will be read by anybody. Still I am writing with the hope that I may be get replied. It seems TRM site is not accepting anymore subscribers. Can anybody help me in acquiring their test signal?

Prasanna Kumar Acharya