Trend trading failure of trend breakouts

[foroom lluzers]

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.

Trends are only visible in hindsight , as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop , when breakouts become consolidation zones.There are more trend failures than trends materializing , most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.

What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?

 

[Dowser]

Interesting, frying pan, map reading and psychology with flared trousers and trend. Blind dogs leading deaf cats 80% of the time. Also fish on Friday but not for traders who stand on one leg. I think?

 

[tomorton]

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.

Trends are only visible in hindsight , as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop , when breakouts become consolidation zones.There are more trend failures than trends materializing , most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.

What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?

OK, I should know better but here goes...

What's missing from the statement that trends are only visible in hindsight is truth and relevance. Trends are only visible once they become trends but that's not the same as only visible in hindsight. Once established, a trend can be readily confirmed, and the most likely thing a confirmed trend will do next is continue. And that assessment is real-time.

 

[Jason101]

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.
Agree.

Trends are only visible in hindsight
Agree, as is a choppy market too.

as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop,when breakouts become consolidation zones.
Disagree, I have no idea why you think this image shows that at all.

There are more trend failures than trends materializing,
I don't see the relevance of this statement at all. You may as well tell a punter "more horses in this race will lose than win."

most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.
If so then most traders are doing it wrong, they should be breaking even on a failed trend trade or at the very most losing a very very small amount. And they should not be "trying to find the illusive trend" they should have already found it.

What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?
Nearly everything.

 

[foroom lluzers]

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END WHEN IT BENDS.
Agree.

Trends are only visible in hindsight
Agree, as is a choppy market too.

as image example below shows .Most trend traders lose money in chop,when breakouts become consolidation zones.
Disagree, I have no idea why you think this image shows that at all.

The image shows a consolidation zone.simple evidence ,by the time you see a trend ,it is ranging and chopping


There are more trend failures than trends materializing,
I don't see the relevance of this statement at all. You may as well tell a punter "more horses in this race will lose than win."The image just proves the point , there is only one trend ,but more failures


most traders lose money trying to find the illusive trends.
If so then most traders are doing it wrong, they should be breaking even on a failed trend trade or at the very most losing a very very small amount. And they should not be "trying to find the illusive trend" they should have already found it.It is not possible to lose a very little without getting into an emotional disorder



What is missing from this statement?How should you trade trends?
Nearly everything.

what is everything


I am looking for the trend trading marketeer to buy a new book on new holy grail of trend trading ,so I can learn everything they claim is wrong.

 

[foroom lluzers]

By the time you see an opportunity ,it is reversing.Market is too efficient to offer a free lunch.

 

[Jason101]

what is everything


I am looking for the trend trading marketeer to buy a new book on new holy grail of trend trading ,so I can learn everything they claim is wrong.

You don't need to buy anything.
You could start by reading for free "The Complete Turtle Rules by Curtis Faith"
This was published for free as an attempt to stop vendors profiting from selling books and systems.
After reading it, take the principles not the system and then do your own thing.
I have never bought a trend following book ever.
I worked it out for myself. After trend following for many years, I read the turtle rules and thought, blimey, that's not far off what I do, I hadn't realised it was a real thing.
But like I say I would use the principles, not the system.

 

[foroom lluzers]

You don't need to buy anything.
You could start by reading for free "The Complete Turtle Rules by Curtis Faith"
This was published for free as an attempt to stop vendors profiting from selling books and systems.
After reading it, take the principles not the system and then do your own thing.
I have never bought a trend following book ever.
I worked it out for myself. After trend following for many years, I read the turtle rules and thought, blimey, that's not far off what I do, I hadn't realised it was a real thing.
But like I say I would use the principles, not the system.

Have you tried buying at major supports , before the breakouts of trend ,then trailing with a wide stop?

 

[foroom lluzers]

here 80 % fail

 

[tomorton]

By the time you see an opportunity ,it is reversing.Market is too efficient to offer a free lunch.

There's been many a free lunch from the US, UK and German stock markets recently. Just look at their index charts over 12mths. I haven't looked at other countries', haven't needed to. Likewise, haven't needed to do much in forex. Trading is easy, its traders who make it hard for themselves.

 

[foroom lluzers]

There's been many a free lunch from the US, UK and German stock markets recently. Just look at their index charts over 12mths. I haven't looked at other countries', haven't needed to. Likewise, haven't needed to do much in forex. Trading is easy, its traders who make it hard for themselves.

Forex does give these free lunches according to this statement.

 

[tomorton]

Yes, forex does give free lunches like all markets do when they get established in longer-term trends. Once these are established, the most probable next thing price does is continue. traders make trading hard, not the markets.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Yes, forex does give free lunches like all markets do when they get established in longer-term trends. Once these are established, the most probable next thing price does is continue. traders make trading hard, not the markets.

Which forex currencies appreciated by 600 % ,like dax from 2,000 to 13,000?

 

[tomorton]

Which forex currencies appreciated by 600 % ,like dax from 2,000 to 13,000?

As I said above, recent free lunches have included the German stock market as can be seen from the index.

But what is your point? Are you saying you're long on the DAX until another 2 decades has gone past? Are you saying nothing without a 2 decade trend is worth buying?

 

[foroom lluzers]

As I said above, recent free lunches have included the German stock market as can be seen from the index.

But what is your point? Are you saying you're long on the DAX until another 2 decades has gone past? Are you saying nothing without a 2 decade trend is worth buying?

huge difference between indices and forex in terms of volatility and appreciation.cable has dropped 50 % in 20 years , euro at same value over 20 years , trading forex is dumb.period.

 

[tomorton]

Trading forex over 20 years is dumb, currency pairs have no inherent buoyancy unlike stock indices.

But trading forex is profitable. If you do it right.

 

[Solas0077]

Trends reversing is not a problem when you trade the proper instruments and have a long/short strategy with a good entry and exit signal. It is better to view trend-following as an asset class. Here is an article about trend-following in forex from a well-known expert and quant. The idea is to limit losses during choppy markets but then make it big during trend markets. Trend-following cannot generate constant profits.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Trends reversing is not a problem when you trade the proper instruments and have a long/short strategy with a good entry and exit signal. It is better to view trend-following as an asset class. Here is an article about trend-following in forex from a well-known expert and quant. The idea is to limit losses during choppy markets but then make it big during trend markets. Trend-following cannot generate constant profits.

I did a lot of backtests on trend following on fx ,results were poor.

 

[tomorton]

Trends reversing is not a problem when you trade the proper instruments and have a long/short strategy with a good entry and exit signal. It is better to view trend-following as an asset class. Here is an article about trend-following in forex from a well-known expert and quant. The idea is to limit losses during choppy markets but then make it big during trend markets. Trend-following cannot generate constant profits.

Not constant, no, - but consistent, and with the regular opportunity for out-performance.

 

[foroom lluzers]

one more failure