Treasury Bond market falling?

[Supermu]

Hey everyone,

I'm considering shorting treasury bonds (TLT) (or buy a put spread of some sorts) or buying the ultrashort 20 yr TB version called TBT, either way, I'd make money if the treasure bond market falls.

My first theory is that the dollar is propped up due to Americans selling stocks (etc) globally, and buying dollars, so they can buy treasury bonds, assuming they're safe.

My second theory is that the USD will collapse totally, now that large scale money printing has begun following the 0% interest rate decision. I then see bond owners dumping bonds as the dollar plummets.

How do I time this? Is it a good idea, based on the theories I've proposed?

Best regards
Supermu

 

[theroguetrader]

quantitative easing has begun,(hope those printers are fired up n ready) :!: - when stoxx get smashed and everyone bails - bonds are always a port of call - !!
the Fed/B of E are stuffed - the last tool of Monetary Policy has almost been used and theres no place left to go..!!
Our national debt is accruing interest at 250m a " DAY "..... -
The Chinese are sitting on TRILLIONS that they usually invest in US fixed income (of various time frames), are now keeping it at home - and 100m trading accounts get opened a month - and their markets, like Indias for example are booming..!! (all those commissions x all those new on line trading accounts) - phew :-0

still could be worse - they could have Brown and Darling in charge - might as well be "Hinge and Bracket "......

 

[Supermu]

but this time around, when stocks get smashed, and the dollar too, where to go then? Gold I suppose, my other strategy... Do you agree with me that 0% interest rate is also the trigger to buy gold, or is there anything to suggest further deflationary pressure on gold? What if the US treasury starts dumping it's gold? The UK did that some years ago, they sold half their reserves (at rock bottom price - points go to Mr Brown for that one mwahaha)