bbmac
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I agree. Moreover, He just would not conternance for one second, or even otherwise consider that he was on the wrong track despite all the evidence, and missed the glaringly obvious weaknesses and potentially lethal flaws in his approach, preferring instead to seek comfort in the false belief that his systems were somehow infalible and that every one and their brother were trying to steal them or somehow trick him out of them. Laterly though he did acknowledge his mistakes in choosing an 'over optimised combo of systems' and mistakes in money management, but not to any of the other weaknesses that were repeatedly put to him, before the authors of such were banned from posting to the journal mostly without exception in a very engaged constructive way, despite his hyper-sensitivity. As we all know from is postings, he is so fragile/sensitive that anything but agree-ing with him sennds him ' off the deep end ' I am afraid.
He went on to write that even without fixing the flaws that led to losses that caused the last investors to pull their capital he was seeking new investors,this in the full knowledge that he hadn't fixed the problem (s) that led to them losing money. This could be described as fraudulent.
He now seems intent on learning math from the ground up in a back to basics approach to mastering modern portfolio theory that he hopes will help him to decide which systemns to trade at any one time. I would suggest that this is a subject that still taxes the largest investment banks with infinite computing and other resources, the brightest harvard graduates, phd's and nobel laureats so he has little chance - and in any event there is a far simpler approach that he has missed.
He went on to write that even without fixing the flaws that led to losses that caused the last investors to pull their capital he was seeking new investors,this in the full knowledge that he hadn't fixed the problem (s) that led to them losing money. This could be described as fraudulent.
He now seems intent on learning math from the ground up in a back to basics approach to mastering modern portfolio theory that he hopes will help him to decide which systemns to trade at any one time. I would suggest that this is a subject that still taxes the largest investment banks with infinite computing and other resources, the brightest harvard graduates, phd's and nobel laureats so he has little chance - and in any event there is a far simpler approach that he has missed.
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robster970
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Maybe he doesn't really want to make any money in this game and has just concocted a huge fantasy to stop himself from confronting this reality. People go to extraordinary lengths to avoid the truth, especially when those truths are about oneself.
e2a - I re-read this after I posted and for the avoidance of any doubt, I do not mean Travis has lied about his journey, his automated systems, etc, etc. What I mean is that he will never allow himself to make money trading and the lengths he has gone to in order to subconciously protect this are extraordinary.
e2a - I re-read this after I posted and for the avoidance of any doubt, I do not mean Travis has lied about his journey, his automated systems, etc, etc. What I mean is that he will never allow himself to make money trading and the lengths he has gone to in order to subconciously protect this are extraordinary.
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Trading has served Travis well, he can't afford to make money. He designs trading systems and keeps his journal because of his obsesssive need for control and stimulation. The hands need to be washed and the scab picked daily, even 120 systems is not enough. Because tomorrow the bloody itch returns and another tweak, another system, another math exercise is needed and relief is found once again. So close is the tortured neurotic and so far; a little is too much and a lot is not enough. Complete control of his journal was not enough, he wanted to control the stars too. If only we had given him his little stars...
DionysusToast
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God damn, this is quite the character assassination, isn't it?
I hereby declare my self the founder member of TEAM TRAVIS.
Please join up, when someone with an IQ above mine (23) joins, they can be the boss.
Go TEAM TRAVIS.
I hereby declare my self the founder member of TEAM TRAVIS.
Please join up, when someone with an IQ above mine (23) joins, they can be the boss.
Go TEAM TRAVIS.
robster970
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DionysusToast
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lol!!! Bless her...
robster970
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Wasn't she magnificent eh! We're tame by comparisson to Hilda
scose-no-doubt
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Wish I could get 40 bags of OPM capital 🙁
Lightning McQueen
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i'm guessing that's what may have highlighted the issue, i'm imagining a huge surge of votes way more than anyone else. you couldn't make it up if you tried.
..wait! praps you can, odd board setup changes on the fruitcakes advisements, now that's priceless 😆
counter_violent
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Too late to curry favour with him now m8 😆 I expect he has a wax doll of you in bits as we speak.
Lightning McQueen
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has it ever won an award? ever? i've not looked. edit: no! nothing.
depends what you mean by "best journal" ok for insomniacs i guess, maybe good if you like that sort of read.
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bbmac
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Lol, Yes I expect I in particular and this thread in general may have provided some decent material upon which he vent his hatred/anger of me/us/humankind on his return.
Do you think he will return ?
Do you think he will return ?
counter_violent
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bbmac
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Yeh for me it was a 'journey' in it's truest sense....all the nonsense about films etc didn't really add much and to be fair all the pouring out of all the personal stuff may have been cathartic for the writer, but the hatred/bile and nonsense that came thru detracted from a reader's empathy toward him/his goal in the end. I personally would have preferred for it to have concentrated on the journey from failed discretionary trader to successful automated trader..that journey as yet uncomplete.
G/L
G/L
bbmac
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Some business type once said that '..half my advertising spend is wasted - if only I knew which half..' and this is in essence the conundrum I guess which Travis is dealing with having a portflio of 120 automated systems available.
The funny thing is, it was in trying to find a useful answer to what Travis perceives as this conundrum - ie automating the answer to the question Which systems should trade at which time, ? that I stumbled across across an answer to that question after reading one of his journal posts he made since the investors pulled out. To test this out I then downloaded the first 5 x EA's I could find over at FF.com, ie randomly, and then ran a backtest to see how those EA's performed. [I knew nothing about these EA's or their authors so had no prior biases toward any of them]. Since then I applied my formula for which EA should trade at any one time albeit manually (but it could be automated - I just don't have that skill set) and so far the result has been very favourable versus just letting all 5 trade at same time,l ie the difference between a decent return and no return - although I have a limited forward test (1mth) so far. So, as one that remains open minded about automated trading (even at the retail level) I thank him for that, - it may prove to be an important discovery (to me at least.)
The funny thing is, it was in trying to find a useful answer to what Travis perceives as this conundrum - ie automating the answer to the question Which systems should trade at which time, ? that I stumbled across across an answer to that question after reading one of his journal posts he made since the investors pulled out. To test this out I then downloaded the first 5 x EA's I could find over at FF.com, ie randomly, and then ran a backtest to see how those EA's performed. [I knew nothing about these EA's or their authors so had no prior biases toward any of them]. Since then I applied my formula for which EA should trade at any one time albeit manually (but it could be automated - I just don't have that skill set) and so far the result has been very favourable versus just letting all 5 trade at same time,l ie the difference between a decent return and no return - although I have a limited forward test (1mth) so far. So, as one that remains open minded about automated trading (even at the retail level) I thank him for that, - it may prove to be an important discovery (to me at least.)
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DionysusToast
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Yup - Team Travis knows who you all are and where you all live.
bbmac
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Lol, Yeh I've done my fair share of critisising in this thread, perhaps frustrated by the inability to respond to falsehoods he wrote on his journal (inadvertently or blatantly) after I amongst others had contributed so positively. Whilst I don't feel as disposed toward him as I did (clearly !) I would still like to see a successful outcome. No one ever really wants some one to suffer, or be in pain.
If I were him I would look again at the very nature and amount of the systems, they have one fundamental flaw that he himself has identified in a post (s) after the live trading stopped, although he may not even recognise it. Secondly I would loook at the known and as yet unknown correlations of the systems when traded together, and thirdly I would as he is seeking to do, look to automate the choice of systems traded but I would encourage him to look at the history of the systems and when they are most likely to have a winning day - this is the biggest clue I will give - the answer lies with the probabilities.
Enough.
G/L
If I were him I would look again at the very nature and amount of the systems, they have one fundamental flaw that he himself has identified in a post (s) after the live trading stopped, although he may not even recognise it. Secondly I would loook at the known and as yet unknown correlations of the systems when traded together, and thirdly I would as he is seeking to do, look to automate the choice of systems traded but I would encourage him to look at the history of the systems and when they are most likely to have a winning day - this is the biggest clue I will give - the answer lies with the probabilities.
Enough.
G/L
counter_violent
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This is really the crux of where things went wrong.
It seems pretty obvious (and I have no idea what he was trading but that does'nt even matter) that the period of extended drawdown occurred when the whole market went into a tizzy. A sufficient number of( ordinarily independent) instruments became aligned and acted as one.
Think of it as the sinking of the titanic, where by design there were independent chambers below the waterline , which ordinarily give a great deal of protection, but as the iceberg ripped through the layers and the chambers filled with water (tipping point) that the ship eventually succumbs.
I'm not even convinced that Travis's systems had reached that tipping point before the investors threw in the towel. I'm not convinced that they lost much if any investor capital, perhaps only the previous profits.
