trailing stop - need some advice and help please

[mp6140]

one can also use the andrews pitchfork which is legendry in its accuracy

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well "legendary" in its accuracy of moving hay from one place to another, thats true !

ok, seriously ---- there are a few channels that are in use, but only two seem to have been deigned to be usable by "professional" traders, at least as far as I know, and that is the LRC and the DeMark trendlines, which do the same thing differently, sorta kinda !

the demark being single, intersecting lines, does not "immediately" show historic support and resistance, but DOES show intersecting points where breakdowns and breakups occur, and so are watched with interest when a price is approaching one.

The LRC's show "immediately" the trend, the trend within the trend and the trend within the trend within the trend ---- which neither the demarker or the pitchfork can do, being "single dimensional", so to speak !

feel free to use the pitchfork, but ive never gotten it to work "correctly" (which to me is predicting the top point of a move TO THE PIP !) and since the only thing on my trading ticket is my exit price (no trailers or sl), set at one pip below what i believe to be absolute top for the day, i need some sort of accuracy to fall back on !

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[wtrader]

=========================================================

well "legendary" in its accuracy of moving hay from one place to another, thats true !

ok, seriously ---- there are a few channels that are in use, but only two seem to have been deigned to be usable by "professional" traders, at least as far as I know, and that is the LRC and the DeMark trendlines, which do the same thing differently, sorta kinda !

the demark being single, intersecting lines, does not "immediately" show historic support and resistance, but DOES show intersecting points where breakdowns and breakups occur, and so are watched with interest when a price is approaching one.

The LRC's show "immediately" the trend, the trend within the trend and the trend within the trend within the trend ---- which neither the demarker or the pitchfork can do, being "single dimensional", so to speak !

feel free to use the pitchfork, but ive never gotten it to work "correctly" (which to me is predicting the top point of a move TO THE PIP !) and since the only thing on my trading ticket is my exit price (no trailers or sl), set at one pip below what i believe to be absolute top for the day, i need some sort of accuracy to fall back on !

enjoy and trade well

mp

yes it is true many cannot get the pitchfork to work for them, i guess it is a matter of choice. roger babson made in todays terms 12 billion on the markets using just median lines. tim morge during his day in the banks held positions up to 50 billion using median lines. he still uses them today however privately and trades for 3 countries and is one of the largest forex traders in the world. alan andews even predicted weather for 2 years using pitchforks and was more accurate than the weatherman.

i use forks and price action to make a consistent 60% win ratio. the beauty is on average i end up taking trades with risk rewards of 1/5 and often exceeding that. the reason is you can nail the tops and bottoms very accurately.

i want to settle the air around pitchforks that seems to just follow retail traders around. many institutional traders use them, some alone as part of the setups and others as the main setup. it is clear that these guys are using them and to dismiss them as inconsistent is a silly mistake made by so many.

 

[mp6140]

yes it is true many cannot get the pitchfork to work for them, i guess it is a matter of choice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i use forks and price action to make a consistent 60% win ratio. the beauty is on average i end up taking trades with risk rewards of 1/5 and often exceeding that. the reason is you can nail the tops and bottoms very accurately.

ok, im one of the ones who CANT make them work for me, but with the LRC and demark's I achieve 100% WIN RATE over a two month period, for 306 consequitive trades, which is ok for me ---- i cant tell you what the risk/rewards ratio is because "risk" per se, is not a part of my trading that i know of ! (in fact, i had to ask someone what "risk/reward" meant, because it sounds like a term an accountant would use on a spreadsheet, and not something a trader would use on a trading ticket !COLOR]

i want to settle the air around pitchforks that seems to just follow retail traders around. many institutional traders use them, some alone as part of the setups and others as the main setup. it is clear that these guys are using them and to dismiss them as inconsistent is a silly mistake made by so many.

please note that it was not I who dismissed them, only that i cant get them to work for me, and i cant use something that doesnt work for me !

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[wtrader]

100% win rate.. where have i heard that before....
if that were true you are above every pro trader\institutional out there and in a few years you will be able to take over the world
:whistling

 

[Splitlink]

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hey

bramble and i have signed the contracts and where taking our standup routine on the road ----- heck, even if just based on being banned, were a natural together !

LRC = Linear Regression Channel as stated by Chorlton. Without going into all the fancy crap that no one has any use for, its a set of three lines (top, middle and bottom) that show historical (and therefore anticipated) support and resistance for the timeframe youre charting.

LRC's are "essentially" top and bottom trend lines, with a middle line, laid as a parallel channel --- as you look at one, you immediately see if the trend is UP or DOWN, which alone is worth the price of admission, but WAIT theres MORE !

there are channels that move with the rising prices (or falling) and those that DONT move, the later showing you how far the price has extended past the channel, and the former showing historically where the prices have gone --- i use both !

since channels act in many ways like bols bands, if a price breaks the channel it can mean a simple break and reverse back down quickly OR, a NEW TREND has come to life.

Channels have qualities that one can use fully in trading and one of their most important roles is showing the TREND in major VISUAL fashion, so a glance is all one needs --- there are many other rules of LRC, with the second being support and resistance as you can see from the attached ---- notice at the top right of the chart, the price rose to the top of the new, small channel and then BROKE OUT --- needless to say, once the break was confirmed as solid, a LONG entered at that point was kinda nice --- shucks, even nicer if you had it from the beginning of the move !

anyhow, thats pretty much it

mp

You may recall my shout of Eureka, the other week, when I shorted UK bank shares that were showing overbought on the LRC Channel. I've done that since then, too, but I have the feeling that I am missing something, here, and that, without that missing piece, there is an aura of flukiness in doing it successfully.

I don't have the sophisticated software that you, as a highly skilled expert in all things to do with trading, have. . I use EOD Sharescope

I'd like to point out to new guys that, when looking at an LRC, they are only accurate on the last day observed and that that may be quite misleading when looking at previous high/low points. The previous points, although appearing to be oversold now, may have been nowhere near the upper band on the day that they were the latest observation.

For instance:

Chart 1 The Footsie is piercing the upper channel of the Bollinger Band ( 60 bar, 2%) but, the LRC is not.

In Chart 2, 4 months on, the January price, referring to Bollinger is the same, but the price is, also, now piercing the LRC.

This makes me wonder whether, after all, the Bollinger Band is not the better of the two methods.

 

[mp6140]

100% win rate.. where have i heard that before....
if that were true you are above every pro trader\institutional out there and in a few years you will be able to take over the world
:whistling

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ah weedhopper --- so much to learn have you to go !

personally, i would find it hard to believe that the institutions are not achieving the same results, with the exception of the short term flippers who "may" simply let trades go and jump on others, which would lower their win ration, even if profits were much higher

one can only take over the world if one continues at that rate with a billion dollars to play with, and while i havent that equity at the moment, and really DONT WANT that equity, Im very happy keeping myself and my clients happy !

Im more from the slow and steady wins the race school, and not the "jackrabbit" school !

mp

 

[wtrader]

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ah weedhopper --- so much to learn have you to go !

personally, i would find it hard to believe that the institutions are not achieving the same results, with the exception of the short term flippers who "may" simply let trades go and jump on others, which would lower their win ration, even if profits were much higher

one can only take over the world if one continues at that rate with a billion dollars to play with, and while i havent that equity at the moment, and really DONT WANT that equity, Im very happy keeping myself and my clients happy !

Im more from the slow and steady wins the race school, and not the "jackrabbit" school !

mp

please.... , who do you think you trying to convince. over 300 trades in a row without a loss. so mr GURU with results that exceed even the sharpest institutional trader. if you can prove those statistics then ill publically admit i am wrong and i have indeed much learning to do.

 

[mp6140]

You may recall my shout of Eureka, the other week, when I shorted UK bank shares that were showing overbought on the LRC Channel. I've done that since then, too, but I have the feeling that I am missing something, here, and that, without that missing piece, there is an aura of flukiness in doing it successfully.

I don't have the sophisticated software that you, as a highly skilled expert in all things to do with trading, have. . I use EOD Sharescope

I'd like to point out to new guys that, when looking at an LRC, they are only accurate on the last day observed and that that may be quite misleading when looking at previous high/low points. The previous points, although appearing to be oversold now, may have been nowhere near the upper band on the day that they were the latest observation.

This makes me wonder whether, after all, the Bollinger Band is not the better of the two methods.

====================================================

first thing split, your first chart doesnt show me januarys full action for comparison with your second chart, unless im missing something .

other than that, their are a few LRC's --- one does NOT alter its top and bottom, although thats usually reserved for intratrend work, and the second, more popular, simply shows you the changing support and resistance areas for the currency in question --- support and resistance is NOT a static situation, but one of change as the prices change. We ARE NOT INTERESTED IN THE PAST as much as we are in the present, so what the LRC shows NOW, is what is of interest

The bols do not move historically, but the bols do not show tops and bottoms as do the channels, so while they are certainly of use (price goes outside of bols, it should come back in quickly = oversold !)they are showing different things --- bols show over, undersold and LRC shows price for top and bottom and middle !

mp

 

[mp6140]

please.... , who do you think you trying to convince. over 300 trades in a row without a loss. so mr GURU with results that exceed even the sharpest institutional trader. if you can prove those statistics then ill publically admit i am wrong and i have indeed much learning to do.

=================================================================

LOL --- i ALREADY know you have much learning to do, but was being a gentleman !

Now, to be honest with you, i do not require you to apologize or publically admit anything as i fully understand your disbelief but i must state one thing first --- this account is one of the accounts of my clients, and i started two weeks ago getting permission from them to show the results, as i knew that sooner or later i would be called on it. I have but two people left to contact and ask your patience until tomorrow or tuesday. At that time, i might also be able to show you another account with EFX where ive made 50% gains in 4 days, although thats a relatively minor account, just recently opened !

FAIR ENOUGH ??

mp

 

[chump]

=======================================================================

ah weedhopper --- so much to learn have you to go !

personally, i would find it hard to believe that the institutions are not achieving the same results, with the exception of the short term flippers who "may" simply let trades go and jump on others, which would lower their win ration, even if profits were much higher

one can only take over the world if one continues at that rate with a billion dollars to play with, and while i havent that equity at the moment, and really DONT WANT that equity, Im very happy keeping myself and my clients happy !

Im more from the slow and steady wins the race school, and not the "jackrabbit" school !

mp

Hey up son,
are you saying you were/are "Im more from the slow and steady wins the race school" 306 times within 2 months .. LOL I guess everything really is relative ..on my moon it takes me that long to decide what chart I am looking at.

 

[wtrader]

=================================================================

LOL --- i ALREADY know you have much learning to do, but was being a gentleman !

Now, to be honest with you, i do not require you to apologize or publically admit anything as i fully understand your disbelief but i must state one thing first --- this account is one of the accounts of my clients, and i started two weeks ago getting permission from them to show the results, as i knew that sooner or later i would be called on it. I have but two people left to contact and ask your patience until tomorrow or tuesday. At that time, i might also be able to show you another account with EFX where ive made 50% gains in 4 days, although thats a relatively minor account, just recently opened !

FAIR ENOUGH ??

mp

absolutely. i look forward to your update on this.

 

[mp6140]

Hey up son,
are you saying you were/are "Im more from the slow and steady wins the race school" 306 times within 2 months .. LOL I guess everything really is relative ..on my moon it takes me that long to decide what chart I am looking at.

==================================================================

i thought that was pretty slow and steady --- back in the 90's we used to do 100 or so a day, and that was 6 or 7 hours !

mp

 

[chump]

If I got more than an handful started in a month (not completed mind you) then I'd have to stop my wife buying me some 'go faster stripes' for my mouse

 

[mp6140]

If I got more than an handful started in a month (not completed mind you) then I'd have to stop my wife buying me some 'go faster stripes' for my mouse

============================================================

LOL -- well, i posted an answer over on the "overtrading thread" and after anwering one, asked for a definition of "overtrading" ---- guess there is none !

mp

 

[Splitlink]

====================================================

first thing split, your first chart doesnt show me januarys full action for comparison with your second chart, unless im missing something .

other than that, their are a few LRC's --- one does NOT alter its top and bottom, although thats usually reserved for intratrend work, and the second, more popular, simply shows you the changing support and resistance areas for the currency in question --- support and resistance is NOT a static situation, but one of change as the prices change. We ARE NOT INTERESTED IN THE PAST as much as we are in the present, so what the LRC shows NOW, is what is of interest

The bols do not move historically, but the bols do not show tops and bottoms as do the channels, so while they are certainly of use (price goes outside of bols, it should come back in quickly = oversold !)they are showing different things --- bols show over, undersold and LRC shows price for top and bottom and middle !

mp

The first chart was not supposed to show the month's action, it was meant to convey the fact that a point that was not overbought on the last date DID show overbought four months later. Therefore, to new students of this method, the whole chart might impress them for the number of overbought/sold opportunities visible. However,, these points, probably, would not have shown signals on the actual date.

What it shows me, however, is that, as I am using it now, the Bollinger might be the safer of the two simply because it can be consulted, afterwards, without giving me a different reading.

What it boils down to, I suppose, is that I have got the wrong end of the stick. That happens to me, sometimes.

 

[mp6140]

The first chart was not supposed to show the month's action, it was meant to convey the fact that a point that was not overbought on the last date DID show overbought four months later. Therefore, to new students of this method, the whole chart might impress them for the number of overbought/sold opportunities visible. However,, these points, probably, would not have shown signals on the actual date.

honestly split, something appears amis with the chart -- it should not and CANNOT show that way correctly because the LRC is aligned to the bols in position, and while resistance (top LRC)can certainly move up, it cant move up and take the bols with it as shown in your second chart ! Something wrong there !

What it shows me, however, is that, as I am using it now, the Bollinger might be the safer of the two simply because it can be consulted, afterwards, without giving me a different reading.

while the bols is indeed a good indicator, and one i use constantly, as it appears on your charts it is only good for showing oversold or overbought and not SPECIFIC tops and bottoms and it is not very good for showing trend either.

What it boils down to, I suppose, is that I have got the wrong end of the stick. That happens to me, sometimes.

could very well be !

mp

 

[Splitlink]

mp,

Nothing wrong with the charts. The second chart's LRC has to come down to meet the BB, surely, as the trend changes downwards? The BB stays where it is, which is why I prefer it.

The BB has given some very good signals when, at the same time, the LRC was giving none.

This is just an observation on my part---no big deal.

Good trading

Split

 

[mp6140]

mp,

Nothing wrong with the charts. The second chart's LRC has to come down to meet the BB, surely, as the trend changes downwards? The BB stays where it is, which is why I prefer it.

The BB has given some very good signals when, at the same time, the LRC was giving none.

This is just an observation on my part---no big deal.

Good trading

Split

=========================================================

not argueing the point split -- simply stating that your LRC on the chart is very wrong -- my charts remain where planted unless moved by new points, which is rarely on H4 or daily charts and give very accurate points that i take my take profit points from directly.

on a fast moving up or downtrend, the bols cannot keep up with the move and as such are invalid for tp points until they go horizontal which can take a day or more. The LRC is ALWAYS horizontal (or some degree off of horizontal, but NEVER in a vertical climb like the bols)

please note, that nowhere, including mr bols website, will you find those bands as EVER being used as tp points EXCEPT on an H4 chart, at the end of all moves, when the currency hits its high --- THEN the bols will represent a tp price.

mp

 

[happyhero]

Hi again, apologies if it appeared that I disappeared but I have been keeping watch. I have been using the trailing stops quite heavily, i.e. on most of my holdings, and I have already gone off them. I had a few stocks in which I had about 20% plus profit and decided to protect this with tighter stops i.e. about 7% (sorry guys for using the percentages still, but it is one of the few methods I understand, and therefore continue to use until I understand another method), but I found that due to wild peaks during the day, even though the share stayed fairly well on track overall, these peaks would cause me to be taken out using trailing stops.

However the fact that I came out of these shares with profit instead of sitting there indefinitely waiting for them to turn bad on me before considering selling, as I normally would do, looks like it maybe showing signs of pushing my basic pot up, not sure yet if this is permanent or as close to permanent as I can get. In this statement I am referring to what TheBramble says in the 2nd post in this thread about a series of shorter trades rather than one big one being better, so I hope I am roughly getting this part right now, I need more time to be sure if it is making a change. The worry of course is when the market is bad and I am knocked out all the time and struggle to find anything to put the money back into, and I always feel if the money is not in then I am making nothing so I always try to get it back in as quickly as possible.

Anyway as I say I have given up a bit with trailing stops because of this knocking me out all over the place so easy and am now trying ordinary stops based more on the end price of the day. In this way I am avoiding being effected by any mid-day fluke peaks which effect my out price with the trailing stop so much. Plus I tighten this stop manually most days if the stock climbs, which at the moment is happening for me thankfully. I bought Tullow Oil the other day with the funds from being knocked out by one of these trailing stops, and this has climbed a bit in just a few days.

As I said previously I feel like an amateur compared to you guys but read your threads with interest trying to pickup tips on how to decide when to buy and sell. You mention so many things I do not know what they are, i.e. what are channels, sizing methodology etc. TheBramble you mention in the beginning of this thread about clear lines of resistance and the stock not being able to test is 52 week high, and although I can see these things you point out I do not really see the significance of them, as no sooner have you spotted the line of resistance etc when they then shoot above it and the 52 week high, given a bit of time. I am not being awkward here, but simply pointing out what I see, hoping to understand what help I can gather from seeing these lines of resistance etc.

I could do with a simple to understand system that works most of the time, systems like pitchfork are mentioned, is this any good for me?

mp6140 from what you say I think I would be very happy to be one of your clients with the profits and time frame you speak of. I would be so happy if I could make regular steady profits that I could live on. I hope to get a few tips on here to steer me in the right direction to making bigger profits.

Do you think is there are any simple things that I can do that will have an immediate effect?

I have found in the past that it all got very complicated when I tried a system and it did not really help, almost as if you could do all the analytical stuff and come up with a result only to find like a horse race, “well nothing is guaranteed” etc. Do you really need do so much analysis or can one simple system be effective?

 

[Chorlton]

Hello Happy. Here are my thoughts...

Hi again, apologies if it appeared that I disappeared but I have been keeping watch. I have been using the trailing stops quite heavily, i.e. on most of my holdings, and I have already gone off them. I had a few stocks in which I had about 20% plus profit and decided to protect this with tighter stops i.e. about 7% (sorry guys for using the percentages still, but it is one of the few methods I understand, and therefore continue to use until I understand another method), but I found that due to wild peaks during the day, even though the share stayed fairly well on track overall, these peaks would cause me to be taken out using trailing stops.

Sorry to repeat myself, but please don't entry a trade WITHOUT a stop. In addition, the Stop MUST be placed at a point which would indicate that your reasons for entering the trade in the first place were wrong. Placing a stop a fixed % away from price is not really helpful although I guess it is definately better than not having one at all!!!! Successful trading takes time to learn (and I'm personally still learning!!!) so the "key" to achieving this experience is by trading the Mkts over the long-term. This can ONLY be achieved by preservation of capital and controlling risk. I cannot stress this point enough!!!!!

The worry of course is when the market is bad and I am knocked out all the time and struggle to find anything to put the money back into, and I always feel if the money is not in then I am making nothing so I always try to get it back in as quickly as possible.

If Mrkt conditions do not allow, then you do NOT have to trade. Sitting on the sidelines is also a position and one I would suggest you take if you are not confident that your new trade will be profitable. For example, if you were to trade a "Trending" type strategy such as some form of "Break-Out" (There are many many variations) then you would ONLY enter a trade when the Mrkt were trending. If they were in a Ranging period, you would not enter as the odds of a successful trade would diminish.

Anyway as I say I have given up a bit with trailing stops because of this knocking me out all over the place so easy and am now trying ordinary stops based more on the end price of the day. In this way I am avoiding being effected by any mid-day fluke peaks which effect my out price with the trailing stop so much. Plus I tighten this stop manually most days if the stock climbs, which at the moment is happening for me thankfully. I bought Tullow Oil the other day with the funds from being knocked out by one of these trailing stops, and this has climbed a bit in just a few days.

Sorry Happy but I don't think you still fully understand the different type of stops. As soon as a trade becomes profitable and you start chasing it then you are using a trailing stop!!! Whether this trailing stop is based on a %, previous lows, ATR, or anything else its still a trailing stop.

Out of interest, what Mrkts & type of stocks are you trading? Are they more volatile than others? I notice that you have mentioned Tullow Oil which suggests to me that you are trading highly volatile stocks. This is fine as long as you are aware of this and as such can use a trailing stop which can absorb some of this volatility.

As I said previously I feel like an amateur compared to you guys but read your threads with interest trying to pickup tips on how to decide when to buy and sell. You mention so many things I do not know what they are, i.e. what are channels, sizing methodology etc. TheBramble you mention in the beginning of this thread about clear lines of resistance and the stock not being able to test is 52 week high, and although I can see these things you point out I do not really see the significance of them, as no sooner have you spotted the line of resistance etc when they then shoot above it and the 52 week high, given a bit of time. I am not being awkward here, but simply pointing out what I see, hoping to understand what help I can gather from seeing these lines of resistance etc.

This may sound a bit harsh but if you don't really understand the comments made by Bramble and others such as Sizing Methodology, basic Support & Resistance Channels, etc then I would STRONGLY suggest you stop trading with real money and instead take some time to look at charts (lots and lots of them) and try to understand why price moves. By all means you can do this while trading but you're probaly go broke before you learn too much. Just my 2cents!!

... can one simple system be effective?

IMO the answer is YES!! BUT, you MUST fully understand the suject of Risk & Money Management & equally important why (and why not) the system works and trade it accordingly.

Regards and Good Luck,

Chorlton