Dentalfloss
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yeah...
we have another problem...lol
the aqua and green horizontals are 1 box counting rows...price targets not achieved as yet
DUNG...they are not makin it easy for us
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
we have another problem...lol
the aqua and green horizontals are 1 box counting rows...price targets not achieved as yet
DUNG...they are not makin it easy for us
Dentalfloss
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- All eyes on the FOMC meeting, but busier day for stats with UK Shop Prices
and Construction PMI, Eurozone Q1 GDP, US ADP Employment and Non-
manufacturing ISM; EIA oil inventories, plenty more corporate earnings,
French presidential TV debate and German 10-yr sale also on tap
- Eurozone GDP: seen echoing 'strength' seen in Spain, Austria, Belgium,
despite drag from France, Italy the wild card
- US ADP Employment: consensus looks for solid gain, but slower than
prior 5 month run of >200K gains
- US FOMC decision: statement tweaks in focus, likely to suggest Q1 GDP
weakness transient, stick to rate path text and again rely on rhetoric
closer to June meeting to signal intentions
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The FOMC meeting naturally tops the day's agenda, though there is a goodly volume of statistics via way of UK BRC Shop Prices and Construction PMI, Eurozone preliminary Q1 GDP, German Unemployment, while the US sees the ADP Private Employment estimate, Non-manufacturing ISM and final Services PMI. Outside of the FOMC, this evening brings the only TV debate for the second round of the French presidential election on Sunday, while elsewhere there are another raft of US and other corporate earnings, and a small EUR 3.0 Bln 10-yr auction. In respect of the French presidential TV debate, it is to be hoped that M Macron performs rather better than he has since the first round, given that his main argument for voting for him is that he is not Le Pen. It is also weekly EIA oil inventories, with yesterday's API measure seeing a much larger 4.2 Mln Bbls drawdown than the anticipated -2.3 Mln, offering a very modest fillip to oil prices, though far from convincing or sufficient to bolster the ailing CAD, where the ostensible housing bubble burst implies the BoC may well have to countenance a wider spread differential with the US, if it is not to compound housing sector woes. As with the ostensible compunction to chase yield, carry and duration, and buy every equity market dip, the signals that the ultra -loose central bank policy of the past 8 years is taking its toll, and sowing a furrow for future asset price destruction grows, even if the denouement may still be some time away. In that vein, it is also worth noting that one of the leading ETF providers Vanguard saw inflows of +$25 Bln in April, the most ever for the month, and inflows for the year to date stand at +$145 Bln, and are seen to be on pace for annual gain of +$437 Bln - see chart.
** Eurozone - Q1 GDP **
- While French GDP missed estimates at 0.3% q/q, most others beat, with Spain, Austria and Belgium all posting 0.5% q/q, and German GDP (to be published on 12 May) looks likely to be at this level or slightly better, as such the Eurozone estimate at 0.5% q/q looks justified. However the big question is how Italian GDP turns out, with incoming data signalling a decidedly mixed picture, especially Trade which made a large contribution to Q4, but based on monthly Trade and Current Account numbers for January and February appears likely to have been at best flat in Q1.
** U.S.A. - April ADP Employment / Non-manufacturing ISM **
- After 5 months of 200K plus readings, which contrasts with Payrolls posting gains of 164K, 155K, 216K, 219K and last month's sharply divergent 98K, April's ADP reading is seen dropping to a still very solid 175K, with many doubtless expecting some downward revisions to prior estimates (though official Payrolls appear more likely to be revised higher). Given that the consensus is very close to the 'usual', it is best described as 'agnostic' or lacking any conviction other than an expected mean reversion. Initial Claims for the survey week (at 245K) were certainly in line with the consensus, even if regional surveys have been a little more mixed, though still indicating a solid level of labour demand. The Non-manufacturing ISM is expected to again defy the signal from a weaker Services PMI (final reading seen unchanged at 52.5), and rebound to 55.8, after a steeper than expected fall from 57.6 to 55.2 in March.
** U.S.A. - May FOMC meeting **
- This is a non-press conference meeting, and unsurprisingly no change is expected from the current 0.75%-1.0% Fed Funds target range. In all likelihood, the FOMC will want to keep the option of a June rate hike very much open, as recent comments from the vast majority of Fed speakers has clearly indicated, in a further display of offering a less divergent set of opinions than was the case for much of 2014 to 2016. Flushed with the 'success' of steering market expectations ahead of the March meeting, they will probably not want to offer any substantive hints on the June meeting, and by extension they will probably not want to err too far from the March statement wording on the economy (see https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170315a.htm). While some have suggested that the FOMC may want to acknowledge the rather more mixed picture from incoming economic data, this seems unlikely, outside of the likely suggestion that the weakness of Q1 GDP owed much to the vicissitudes of Q1 seasonality, which they expect to be transient, even if yesterday's soft Auto Sales suggest that a substantial Q1 rebound in personal consumption may prove to be a rather tall order. Eminently, the lack of any real progress on any fiscal policy initiatives will probably be the subject for some discussion, though this will likely be circumspect, given the well documented tensions between the Fed and Congress, let alone the White House. The other question is whether there is any change to the text on balance sheet management, which looks to be unlikely, that is in so far as this would require some rather more extensive explanation, which would be better suited to a press conference meeting.
from Marc Ostwald
and Construction PMI, Eurozone Q1 GDP, US ADP Employment and Non-
manufacturing ISM; EIA oil inventories, plenty more corporate earnings,
French presidential TV debate and German 10-yr sale also on tap
- Eurozone GDP: seen echoing 'strength' seen in Spain, Austria, Belgium,
despite drag from France, Italy the wild card
- US ADP Employment: consensus looks for solid gain, but slower than
prior 5 month run of >200K gains
- US FOMC decision: statement tweaks in focus, likely to suggest Q1 GDP
weakness transient, stick to rate path text and again rely on rhetoric
closer to June meeting to signal intentions
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The FOMC meeting naturally tops the day's agenda, though there is a goodly volume of statistics via way of UK BRC Shop Prices and Construction PMI, Eurozone preliminary Q1 GDP, German Unemployment, while the US sees the ADP Private Employment estimate, Non-manufacturing ISM and final Services PMI. Outside of the FOMC, this evening brings the only TV debate for the second round of the French presidential election on Sunday, while elsewhere there are another raft of US and other corporate earnings, and a small EUR 3.0 Bln 10-yr auction. In respect of the French presidential TV debate, it is to be hoped that M Macron performs rather better than he has since the first round, given that his main argument for voting for him is that he is not Le Pen. It is also weekly EIA oil inventories, with yesterday's API measure seeing a much larger 4.2 Mln Bbls drawdown than the anticipated -2.3 Mln, offering a very modest fillip to oil prices, though far from convincing or sufficient to bolster the ailing CAD, where the ostensible housing bubble burst implies the BoC may well have to countenance a wider spread differential with the US, if it is not to compound housing sector woes. As with the ostensible compunction to chase yield, carry and duration, and buy every equity market dip, the signals that the ultra -loose central bank policy of the past 8 years is taking its toll, and sowing a furrow for future asset price destruction grows, even if the denouement may still be some time away. In that vein, it is also worth noting that one of the leading ETF providers Vanguard saw inflows of +$25 Bln in April, the most ever for the month, and inflows for the year to date stand at +$145 Bln, and are seen to be on pace for annual gain of +$437 Bln - see chart.
** Eurozone - Q1 GDP **
- While French GDP missed estimates at 0.3% q/q, most others beat, with Spain, Austria and Belgium all posting 0.5% q/q, and German GDP (to be published on 12 May) looks likely to be at this level or slightly better, as such the Eurozone estimate at 0.5% q/q looks justified. However the big question is how Italian GDP turns out, with incoming data signalling a decidedly mixed picture, especially Trade which made a large contribution to Q4, but based on monthly Trade and Current Account numbers for January and February appears likely to have been at best flat in Q1.
** U.S.A. - April ADP Employment / Non-manufacturing ISM **
- After 5 months of 200K plus readings, which contrasts with Payrolls posting gains of 164K, 155K, 216K, 219K and last month's sharply divergent 98K, April's ADP reading is seen dropping to a still very solid 175K, with many doubtless expecting some downward revisions to prior estimates (though official Payrolls appear more likely to be revised higher). Given that the consensus is very close to the 'usual', it is best described as 'agnostic' or lacking any conviction other than an expected mean reversion. Initial Claims for the survey week (at 245K) were certainly in line with the consensus, even if regional surveys have been a little more mixed, though still indicating a solid level of labour demand. The Non-manufacturing ISM is expected to again defy the signal from a weaker Services PMI (final reading seen unchanged at 52.5), and rebound to 55.8, after a steeper than expected fall from 57.6 to 55.2 in March.
** U.S.A. - May FOMC meeting **
- This is a non-press conference meeting, and unsurprisingly no change is expected from the current 0.75%-1.0% Fed Funds target range. In all likelihood, the FOMC will want to keep the option of a June rate hike very much open, as recent comments from the vast majority of Fed speakers has clearly indicated, in a further display of offering a less divergent set of opinions than was the case for much of 2014 to 2016. Flushed with the 'success' of steering market expectations ahead of the March meeting, they will probably not want to offer any substantive hints on the June meeting, and by extension they will probably not want to err too far from the March statement wording on the economy (see https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170315a.htm). While some have suggested that the FOMC may want to acknowledge the rather more mixed picture from incoming economic data, this seems unlikely, outside of the likely suggestion that the weakness of Q1 GDP owed much to the vicissitudes of Q1 seasonality, which they expect to be transient, even if yesterday's soft Auto Sales suggest that a substantial Q1 rebound in personal consumption may prove to be a rather tall order. Eminently, the lack of any real progress on any fiscal policy initiatives will probably be the subject for some discussion, though this will likely be circumspect, given the well documented tensions between the Fed and Congress, let alone the White House. The other question is whether there is any change to the text on balance sheet management, which looks to be unlikely, that is in so far as this would require some rather more extensive explanation, which would be better suited to a press conference meeting.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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12426-12453 big supp area
lookin like we bounce around...but still good pips in all that mess
lookin like we bounce around...but still good pips in all that mess
Dentalfloss
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ftse could go for a pump
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My chart from yest before the rise to 12525. You can see the 12485 area clearly will act as support IMO.
Dax, everything is pointing up but it must stop sometime!
Moneylender
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Oops ignore the date on the chart, the Bud was obviously having an effect by then!
C
cantagril
Am thinking we might get a bit of a bounce from 12490 before today's news. Am looking at the 5min data levels for this morning. Am I seeing what isn't there?
Attachments
Moneylender
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No, its def there!!
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
C
cantagril
Am suitably reassured, thankyou. Unfortunately (so far) my 12490 order didn't get triggered so I'm watching it head north without me....
Moneylender
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Not sure I would be long here though!
Morning folks,
Ftse in sp zone atm 7225ish see how it plays..think it could go to 7210ish. Hopefully see it pump to 7240-50. Will be waiting at both ends...rangebound.. good for scalps.
Long term trend still up imho...having a breather. Need to get above 6265 for the 7300.
cable holding ftse back..might have to wait till 1.30 till some selling starts....
Oil WTI in sp 4780-4800...see how it reacts off 4800..might go 4750 before a decent pump.
As always...lets see!
Ftse in sp zone atm 7225ish see how it plays..think it could go to 7210ish. Hopefully see it pump to 7240-50. Will be waiting at both ends...rangebound.. good for scalps.
Long term trend still up imho...having a breather. Need to get above 6265 for the 7300.
cable holding ftse back..might have to wait till 1.30 till some selling starts....
Oil WTI in sp 4780-4800...see how it reacts off 4800..might go 4750 before a decent pump.
As always...lets see!
C
cantagril
Neither am I...but now I am.
I was reckoning that as the unemployment numbers were unremittingly good we'd get a bounce through the GDP news at 10.
C
cantagril
Out at BE
Moneylender
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DOW as we head towards the open. The pressure is on, do we dump???
Moneylender
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Zoom in for a close up of the last 3 days.
Dentalfloss
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its rainin here
little movement in index and fx
ughhh
little movement in index and fx
ughhh
Moneylender
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dull here and cold compared to yesterday. Everyone waiting for Elections and FED.
Moneylender
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might bounce off 900 now!
Dentalfloss
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12520 area is rez
