Trading with point and figure

some detail
35megdd.gif
 
Morning folks,

Ftse...sp 7120 - 7110..if that holds it wants to go up again rez 7150. If not could drop 7070 till the buyers gather themselves and 7100 - 7110 will be new rez...not rocket science atm I think

Ftse wants to go up but US indices might hold it back...think cable priced in @1.28ish don't see that having big effect and WTI Oil stable @50 - 51ish
 
- Relatively busy run of statistics likely to play second fiddle to
politics, as G20 meets and France holds presidential election first
round on Sunday; flash PMIs, UK Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales;
Fed's Kashkari and BoE's Saunders speak

- UK Retail Sales: expected to reverse some of February rebound, some
downside risks from Easter timing effects; weak reading may check
GBP gains, focus also on CFTC CoT this evening

- PMIs: Japan underlines sluggish domestic economy, France jumps on
hopes for better economy, Germany seen dipping modestly, US PMIs expected
to rise, but still lagging ISM readings

- US Existing Home Sales: expected to rebound close to 10-yr high, focus
on inventories


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As this week has made more than abundantly clear again, politics or rather perceived political risk (positive / negative) continues to rule the roost. Even if today's compact but quite busy statistical schedule should some food for thought, it is the first round of tje French presidential election on Sunday which will be the key talking point. Be that as it may, flash PMIs. UK Retail Sales, Canadian CPI and US Existing Home Sales top the data schedule, while the G20 meeting in the context of annual IMF/World Bank Spring meetings will doubtless provide a cornucopia of headlines, even if many officials will be competing for the gold medal for either stating the bleeding obvious, and/or vacuous soundbites to satisfy their inner narcissism and hubristic sense of self-importance. Other central bank speak comes via way of BoE's Saunders and the Fed's very own 'bank TBTF' bible thumper Kashkari, while GE heads the run of US corporate earnings.

** U.K. - March Retail Sales **
- The consensus forecasts for today's headline Retail Sales are divergent, with one suggesting -0.5%, while another looks for a more modest -0.2% m/m, though both would be a) a modest setback after 1.4% m/m jump in February, and b) see a sharp improvement in the key 3-mth/3-mth comparison from February's -1.4% q/q, given that December's -2.2% m/m drops out, and move back to modestly positive territory, even if the contribution to Q1 GDP from retail spending will be considerably weaker than both Q3 and Q4. Eminently Easter timing effects may well have a major impact and imply some potentially quite large downside risks, even if these should be ironed out in the April report. However it will offer some context following the election announcement squeeze in the GBP, with this evening's CFTC Commitment of Traders report providing the other focal point, capturing as it will the week to last Tuesday (i.e. the day of the election announcement), also see attached charts.

** G7 - April flash PMIs **
- As is often the case, forecasts for the various PMIs are essentially agnostic, but essentially see the array of Eurozone PMIs edging marginally lower after picking up more than expected in March (notwithstanding downward revisions to final readings), while the US readings are forecast to pick up, echoing other US surveys, though at 53.8 and 53.2, the PMIs continue to lag the more reliable ISM readings. As for the overnight Japan Manufacturing PMI, the modest pick-up to 52.8 from 52.4 was predicated on a relatively sharp jump in the Export Orders component (53.9 vs. 51.9), and while this is encouraging, it again underlines the still very poor state of domestic demand, with few signs of any near term improvement. In respect of the Eurozone PMIs, incoming 'hard' data also highlight that while Germany continues to benefit from very strong domestic demand at home and in the wider Eurozone, the uptick in France is predicated on the hope of a better outlook after the election, which thus far has failed to be seen in official statistics.

** U.S.A. - March Existing Home Sales **
- As has been well documented, housing demand in the USA remains very solid, and after a corrective dip in February from January's 10 year high (5.69 Mln SAAR), Sales are expected to have posted a 2.2% m/m rise to a 5.60 Mln SAAR pace, which would also fit with the indications from a sharp 5.5% m/m rise in Pending Home Sales. The key aspect remains that inventories remain very low (Feb 3.8 months vs. January 3.5 months, and this will again require particular attention

from Marc Ostwald
 
jeffre4 said:
On the second trade did it not reverse back up first and the second time it dropped. Which box do you trade from ?? and how many points stop
Click to expand...

Jeffre4

I highlighted the Pump or dump level in a previous post, once it got to that level I was looking for a movement/reaction on a tick chart, once I got that reaction I entered on the second confirmation. (double top) As for stops I seldom use them, preferring to watch my trade and if it goes against me I will enter a hedge trade to give me time to evaluate the next move. I do however use stops to lock in profit but I also like to meddle and this often costs me points!!!!

I would advise you to develop your own trading style and use the info on boards as guides only, this board is one of the best to gleem that info, 007 being the master. Stress levels vary from one person to another so adapt your style with your tolerances. Good luck.

M
 
Not sure what to do about French election, do I gamble and hold positions over weekend???

any views anyone?
 
Moneylender said:
DAX I think, maybe the DOW but dont expect the voting to effect DOW
Click to expand...

Personally, I'd be out of the market. :rolleyes:

Elections have been pretty erratic last year or so. Polls not much cop.#

Lot's of whipsaws likely imo. Even analysts have trouble digesting info data and subsequent outcomes.

Have a good weekend rest and play. Come back to market another day. (y)
 
Atilla said:
Personally, I'd be out of the market. :rolleyes:

Elections have been pretty erratic last year or so. Polls not much cop.#

Lot's of whipsaws likely imo. Even analysts have trouble digesting info data and subsequent outcomes.

Have a good weekend rest and play. Come back to market another day. (y)
Click to expand...

We Pensioners never chicken out
we have had plenty of rough stuff over the years.....we can handle it
 
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