Trading with point and figure

- US data, earnings and events dominate schedule, as Europe returns from
Easter holiday break; US Housing Starts and Industrial Production, rash
of earnings, Fed speak and North Korea concerns in focus, as China ODI,
Home Prices and RRR cut chatter is digested

- US Industrial Production: utilities and oil sector to boost headline,
autos and weather likely to depress manufacturing output, outlook still
solid

- US Housing Starts: modest drop in Starts expected, some downside risks,
while Permits likely to rebound

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As European markets return to the fray after the Easter holidays, the US will likely be the key point of attention, (that is outside of the weather with snow falling across large swathes of central and northern Europe). Statistically the US has Housing Starts and Industrial Production, politically all eyes are on what steps the US might take against North Korea, while the Earnings schedule sees Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, IBM, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group amongst other reporting Q1 earnings, and there will also be some Fed speak from the always reliably hawkish Esther George, following on from Fischer's rather unremarkable comments yesterday.

** U.S.A. - March Housing Starts / Industrial Production **
- As has been well documented, March saw unseasonably cold / adverse weather conditions in contrast to the very mild conditions that had prevailed in February, and this may well have an impact on both of today's data sets. Housing Starts are projected by the consensus to slow to a still very solid 1.25 Mln SAAR pace after February's 3.0% m/m inrease to 1.288 Mln, while the normally less volatile Building Permits are forecast to rebound to a 1.25 Mln SAAR pace after dropping 6.0% m/m in February, underlining ongoing strength in the sector, even though the NAHB reports have noted that builders continue to note capacity constraints, both labour and (suitable) land related. Industrial Production will almost certainly be about the detail with risks to the upside of a projected 0.5% m/m gain in headline Production, paced by a jump in Utility Output due to the cold weather as well as continued strength in the mining/extraction sector, as signalled by the rising rig count. However Manufacturing Output will at best post a marginal 0.1% m/m rise, with Average Weekly Hours falling and soft Auto Sales implying a drop in sector output. That said, Factory Orders and sector surveys imply a solid rebound in Q2, and as such any weakness in today's report should be seen as transient.

from Marc Ostwald
 
12162 the high at the open...we had 12180 as rez...yu cannot rely on levels
it shows our box size was wrong...but that is ok..cos difficult to get the box size right all the time
 
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