Trading with point and figure

USO/oil etf

acfkhc.gif
 
uso
approx 3% to go before it hits that prev supp area at 11.00
seems to be 51.00 on wti...as yu said
 
- Japan Tankan, World Manufacturing PMIs, US Auto Sales and Construction
spending kick off new quarter, more ECB and Fed speak

- Business surveys: Japan Tankan a mixed bag, EU and UK surveys expected to
continue to solid pace of expansion, US ISM seen dipping, but still firm

- Week Ahead: surveys globally, US Payrolls, German Orders, UK / Europe
Trade & Industrial Production in focus

- Week Ahead central banks: Fed and ECB minutes; RBA, RBI, NBP all seen
on hold

- Week Ahead: busier week for Eurozone govt bond supply, but redemptions
to match volume of new issuance; USD corporate issuance seen ebbing
modestly after record Q1

- Week Ahead: Trump Xi meeting tops political agenda, Brexit negotiations
posturing, South Africa power struggle and French presidential TV debate

- Charts: Energy CFTC positions, Baker Hughes rig count

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The Day & Week Ahead: Data, Events & Earnings Preview / Highlights - 3 to 7 April 2017 - ADM ISI

Q2 2017 kicks off with the meeting between Trump and Chinese Preident XI as its likely highlight, while there will also be a close eye kept on the positional statements from the UK and EU on Brexit negotiations, as well as a second French Presidential TV debate. Developments in South African politics will remain in the spotlight, with new Finance Minister Gigaba's very credible weekend press conference unlikely to distract from opposition moves to force a parliamentary no-confidence vote in President Zuma. The week also ends with a meeting of EU finance ministers & central bank chiefs.

- Statistics - This being the first week of the month, the US March labour market data inevitably tops the schedule, while Japan's Q2 Tankan accompanies the usual raft of Manufacturing and Services PMIs from around the globe. Today's US Auto Sales may garner a little more attention than usual, with a solid 17.30 mln SAAR pace expected, though this would again be lower for the third consecutive month, and a far cry from the near 12-yr high of 18.4 Mln seen last December, with falling prices and hefty incentive discounting raising further concerns. The Advance Goods Trade Balance, Factory Orders and today's Construction Spending are the other key items on the US schedule. Payrolls are seen reverting to a more normal 175K pace, with the Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at 4.7% and Average Hourly Earnings as ever forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, which would see the y/y rate slip to a by recent standards lofty 2.7% from February's 2.8%. In the Eurozone, German Factory Orders are expected to continue a very volatile run with a 3.8% m/m rebound that would follows January's -7.4% m/m and December's +5.2% m/m, which overall sustains a solid underlying trend, with Friday's Industrial Production seen slipping 0.2% m/m after surging 2.8% m/m in January, and Exports and Imports also seen drifting down by 0.5% and 0.4% m/m respectively after jumping 2.7% and 3.0% m/m in January. Production and Trade data are also due in France and Spain, as well as the UK, where Manufacturing Output is seen posting only a modest 0.3% m/m rebound after a 0.9% m/m drop in January, while the Visible Trade Balance is forecast to be little changed at £-10.7 Bln. BRC Shop Prices will be very closely watched as inflation pressures continue to build, while the often erratic and unreliable Construction Output is seen little changed. Outside of the overnight Tankan, Labour Cash Earnings will be the highlight in Japan and are forecast at an unchanged and still very sluggish 0.5% y/y

- Central banks - policy rate meetings are scheduled in Australia, India, Israel, Poland, Romania and Peru, with no change in rates expected. In the USA, the minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be watched reasonably closely for signals on what might prompt FOMC members to shift their views on the rate trajectory, though last week's barrage of Fed speak and a more modest run this week underlines the point that the FOMC is above all focused on ensuring that markets do not push back too far from the current dot plot or two further hikes in 2017. There will also be particular interest in what was discussed in terms of balance sheet reduction, above all in sequencing terms and how this might interact with the rate trajectory. The ECB's account of its March policy meeting is also due, with some rather dissonant noises emanating from the doves and hawks about what precisely the change of wording at that meeting implied for the possibility of either tapering further (recall that as of this month the ECB will reduce its monthly QE pace to EUR 60 Bln from EUR 80 Bln), or perhaps raising rates before QE is discontinued.

- Govt bond issuance - A relatively busy week sees Germany sell EUR 4.0 Bn 5-yr OBL and EUR 1.0 Bln 10-yr inflation-Linked Bund, while the UK sells 2.5 Blnn of 10-yr Gilts, Elsewhere in the Eurozone, Austria sells EUR 1.3 Bln of 6 and 10-yr, France sells EUR 7.0-8.0 Bln 10 & 14-yr and Spain will likely sell EUR 4.0-5.0 BLn of 3, 10 & 24-yr Bonos and 7-yr I-L Bono. Net supply should thus be marginlly negative as Germany has EUR 18.0 Bln of redemptions, with the rest of April seeing a further EUR 63.5 Bln of redemptions from Netherlands, Finland, France and Spain. US Corporate Issuance posted a record $399 Bln total of Investment Grade debt and $82 Bln of High yield issuance (the latter nearly Q1 2016), and this week is projected to see some $20-25 bln in IG and around $5.0 Bln of high yield.

- Commodities: After what proved to be an unexpectedly rough Q1 for commodities, in no small part as 'Trump-flation trades' came unstuck, and oil prices reversed OPEC/NOPEC gains above all on concerns that the inventory overhang will take longer to unwind on rising US shale output, the outlook for Q2 is rather uncertain with politics, be that Trump or the possibility of the production cut deal being extended, and inflation outlook views along with the perennial fixation on Chinese demand likely to be the overarching themes.

- Today: It is sad to reflect that the sabre rattling by Trump in respect of North Korea and elements of the UK Conservative party in respect of Gibraltar is increasingly reminiscent of the war-mongering after the last period of spectacular globalization and so-called populist nationalism at the end of the 19th century, which ultimately culminated in the World War I and the death of 38 million people. Statistically PMIs and the overnight Japan Q1 Tankan will be the key features of today's session. Saturday's China Caixin Manufacturing PMI dipped modestly to 51.2 from 51.7, primarily predicated by a sharper drop in export orders (51.9 vs. 53.8), which will need to be watched closely in coming months. The BoJ's Tankan Q1 Tankan painted a mixed picture of the economy, with healthy positive balances for the large company sector, even if Q2 outlooks were edged lower. Encouragingly consumer services sector (retail, restaurants, hotels) were optimistic on the outlook, in contrast to very weak current spending data. However, in contrast to the modest upward revision of large company CapEx expectations (+0.6% y/y vs prior -0.1%), prospects for small manufacturers' CapEx looks to be dire at -22.6% y/y for 2017. For the Eurozone, the very strong flash readings are expected to be confirmed, and the question is whether Spain and Italy will echo the upside surprises for Germany and France. While UK consumers are increasingly worried about the economic outlook, there has been little evidence that businesses are seeing any notable headwinds, notwithstanding uncertainties about the Brexit negotiations, with solid CBI surveys doubtless informing forecasts for a slight uptick in the Manufacturing PMI to 55.0 from 54.6, whereby the price components will require particular attention. Echoing the dip in the Markit version and similar setbacks in some of the regional surveys, the Manufacturing ISM is projected to post a slip to a still very robust 57.2 from February's 2 1/2 year high of 57.7. Last but not least US Construction Spending is forecast to reverse January's -1.0% with a 1.0% m/m rise, though it is the breakdown between residential and non-residential that will demand most attention, with non-residential having posted drops in 3 of the past 4 months.


from Marc Ostwald
 
The range is between 348 and 360, been up and down 5 times in the last 40 mins or so, that's quite a few pips if you were scalping it!
 
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