Dentalfloss
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levels are only a guide....as we keep saying
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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levels are only a guide....as we keep saying
Dentalfloss
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there is usually some overshoot from the technical level after a decent move
Dentalfloss
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mornin all
Dentalfloss
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nas 100 hit all time high overnight
oil..into 50.00 area
oil..into 50.00 area
Moneylender
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Morning boss
Dentalfloss
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mornin Guvner
Dentalfloss
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NAS 100
Dentalfloss
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index sellers..could get no real joy
month end
nas100 being so bullish
oil bullish
lets see what happens
month end
nas100 being so bullish
oil bullish
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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dow needs to zip thru 20750 area
bull test in 20780-20800 area
bulls need to see 20700 as supp
bull test in 20780-20800 area
bulls need to see 20700 as supp
Dentalfloss
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dax ..bust 12250
12200 as supp area
12200 as supp area
Dentalfloss
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ftse 7400 on the cards
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dollar strength..so far
Dentalfloss
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- Busy schedule to find its focal points in Germany, Spain CPI, Us Jobless
Claims and final Q4 GDP, UK Brexit Great Repeal Bill white paper, raft
of ECB and Fed speakers; Italy tops govt bond auctions; Czech, Mexico
and South Africa policy meetings
- Germany / Spain CPI: energy base effects to fade, but Easter timing
effects likely to heavily distort, with payback in April - risks
nevertheless to downside of consensus
- EC Confidence surveys: seen edging up again, some upside risks and
again confounding prior negative narrative on EZ economic outlook
- US Q4 GDP: small revision up seen, market focussed on dissonant signals
from regional Fed tracking estimates
- Mexico rates: MXN rally gives scope to pause, but Carstens comments
suggest would prefer to give MXN a further boost
- South Africa: Gordhan debacle a timely reminder of prior SARB caution
on responding to recently better CPI
- Charts: US, UK, Germany 10-yr yields, Atlanta Fed vs St Louis Fed GDP
now estimates, US Copper Scrap Prices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy looking schedule flatters to deceive, but statistically the provisional Spanish, German and Belgian CPI data for March, Eurozone M3 and EC confidence surveys, US jobless claims and final Q4 GDP should offer one or other highlight. In event terms, the UK govt will publish a 'white paper' on the Brexit 'Great Repeal Bill', there is plenty more Fed and ECB speak, while rates are expected to be held steady in the Czech republic, and South Africa, with a further 25 bps rate hike seen in Mexico, while Brazil's central bank publishes its quarterly inflation report, which should offer some further strong signals that rates have plenty of scope to fall further. Italy tops the auction schedule with a maximum total of EUR 6.5 Bln of 3, 5, 10 & 50-yr BTPs. On the central bank policy meeting front, the CNB will doubtless underline that it intends to drop the EUR/CZK cap at 27.00 by mid-year (May meeting currently the most likely meeting for official confirmation), with headline inflation now running at 2.5%. The Banco de Mexico is expected to hike rates despite the recent strong recovery in the MXN, and comments from governor Carstens that there was still plenty of scope for the MXN to rally further, contingent on how US/Mexican relations evolve, but implicitly suggesting that Banxico does not intend to take the opportunity to pause the current tightening cycle, though they could signal that as an option going forward. South Africa's central bank was not expected to take the opportunity to cut rates following the ZAR's rally up until the end of last week and better inflation data, in no small part due to the potential for political risks that have once again moved 'front and central' as President Zuma throws caution to the wind by attempting to oust Finance Minister Gordhan (again), and thus prompting the ZAR to tumble. In turn this gives the SARB scope to sound a hawkish tone, given the potential risks to the inflation outlook from the ZAR fall; that said weaker wholesale energy and food prices should help to offset some of the pressure from the weaker Rand. Following a fresh barrage of announcements and briefings by Trump, his officials and members of Congress yesterday, relating to everything from Trade with China and NAFTA to infrastructure spending plans, energy and healthcare, markets will also need to be prepared for another rush of edicts and Tweets, in a fresh round of Trump bingo.
** Germany, Spain - March CPI **
- After the sharper than expected CPI rises over the past 3 months, March is expected to see y/y rates drift lower at a national level and for the Eurozone as a whole. In part this reflects the fact that energy price base effects will dissipate quite rapidly in coming months, which the recent setback in oil prices will only serve to exacerbate this month. However some of the fall will also be attributable to Easter timing effects, with seasonal price rises showing up in the April data this year, as opposed to in March 2016. As such some care is needed in interpreting the March and April data, though the ECB doves, (who were doubtless the 'sources' for yesterday's story that markets over-interpreted the March meeting message in terms of the timeline for a less accommodative policy stance), will probably use any setback in headline CPI and the still very low level of core CPI to deliver a rebuke to the hawks such as Lautenschlaeger and Weidmann. The first state to report is Saxony with the March reading to 1.8% vs. 2.4% y/y, and the core measure slipping to 1.2% from 1.4% - this is not always a good guide to the national reading, but probably a good indication that risks are clearly to the downside of the consensus. The EC's confidence surveys are also due, and expected to show a further pick-up across the board, with the consensus estimates looking to be somewhat under-clubbed if the array of national readings are anything to go by, thus continuing to run counter to the narrative that due to political woes and uncertainties, Euro area and EU economies are at risk of imminent derailment.
** U.S.A. - Q4 final GDP / Jobless Claims **
- As is typical, the second revision to Q4 GDP is likely to be at best marginal, with the consensus looking for 2.0% SAAR vs. prior 1.9%, on the back of an upward revision to Final Domestic Sales to 1.0% from 0.9%, and thus affirming the mixed contributions to overall GDP - Personal Consumption 2.05 ppt, Inventories 0.94 ppt, Fixed Asset CapEx 0.51 ppt and a hefty deduction from Exports of 0.5 ppt. Markets are now focussed on Q1 with the various regional Fed tracking estimates, from the downbeat Atlanta Fed 1.0% through the St Louis Fed's 2.7% to NY Fed's 3.0%, which hardly helps markets to gain an insight to actual trends. This dissonance is discussed in a paper by the St Louis Fed in attempt to explain the divergence, which can be found here - https://research.stlouisfed.org/pub...does-data-confusion-equal-forecast-confusion/. After a sharp jump to a twelve week high of 261K last week having hit a new 43-yr low at 227K three weeks prior, Initial Claims are seen drifting down to 247K, i.e. into the range which as prevailed for much of the past 4 months.
from Marc Ostwald
Claims and final Q4 GDP, UK Brexit Great Repeal Bill white paper, raft
of ECB and Fed speakers; Italy tops govt bond auctions; Czech, Mexico
and South Africa policy meetings
- Germany / Spain CPI: energy base effects to fade, but Easter timing
effects likely to heavily distort, with payback in April - risks
nevertheless to downside of consensus
- EC Confidence surveys: seen edging up again, some upside risks and
again confounding prior negative narrative on EZ economic outlook
- US Q4 GDP: small revision up seen, market focussed on dissonant signals
from regional Fed tracking estimates
- Mexico rates: MXN rally gives scope to pause, but Carstens comments
suggest would prefer to give MXN a further boost
- South Africa: Gordhan debacle a timely reminder of prior SARB caution
on responding to recently better CPI
- Charts: US, UK, Germany 10-yr yields, Atlanta Fed vs St Louis Fed GDP
now estimates, US Copper Scrap Prices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy looking schedule flatters to deceive, but statistically the provisional Spanish, German and Belgian CPI data for March, Eurozone M3 and EC confidence surveys, US jobless claims and final Q4 GDP should offer one or other highlight. In event terms, the UK govt will publish a 'white paper' on the Brexit 'Great Repeal Bill', there is plenty more Fed and ECB speak, while rates are expected to be held steady in the Czech republic, and South Africa, with a further 25 bps rate hike seen in Mexico, while Brazil's central bank publishes its quarterly inflation report, which should offer some further strong signals that rates have plenty of scope to fall further. Italy tops the auction schedule with a maximum total of EUR 6.5 Bln of 3, 5, 10 & 50-yr BTPs. On the central bank policy meeting front, the CNB will doubtless underline that it intends to drop the EUR/CZK cap at 27.00 by mid-year (May meeting currently the most likely meeting for official confirmation), with headline inflation now running at 2.5%. The Banco de Mexico is expected to hike rates despite the recent strong recovery in the MXN, and comments from governor Carstens that there was still plenty of scope for the MXN to rally further, contingent on how US/Mexican relations evolve, but implicitly suggesting that Banxico does not intend to take the opportunity to pause the current tightening cycle, though they could signal that as an option going forward. South Africa's central bank was not expected to take the opportunity to cut rates following the ZAR's rally up until the end of last week and better inflation data, in no small part due to the potential for political risks that have once again moved 'front and central' as President Zuma throws caution to the wind by attempting to oust Finance Minister Gordhan (again), and thus prompting the ZAR to tumble. In turn this gives the SARB scope to sound a hawkish tone, given the potential risks to the inflation outlook from the ZAR fall; that said weaker wholesale energy and food prices should help to offset some of the pressure from the weaker Rand. Following a fresh barrage of announcements and briefings by Trump, his officials and members of Congress yesterday, relating to everything from Trade with China and NAFTA to infrastructure spending plans, energy and healthcare, markets will also need to be prepared for another rush of edicts and Tweets, in a fresh round of Trump bingo.
** Germany, Spain - March CPI **
- After the sharper than expected CPI rises over the past 3 months, March is expected to see y/y rates drift lower at a national level and for the Eurozone as a whole. In part this reflects the fact that energy price base effects will dissipate quite rapidly in coming months, which the recent setback in oil prices will only serve to exacerbate this month. However some of the fall will also be attributable to Easter timing effects, with seasonal price rises showing up in the April data this year, as opposed to in March 2016. As such some care is needed in interpreting the March and April data, though the ECB doves, (who were doubtless the 'sources' for yesterday's story that markets over-interpreted the March meeting message in terms of the timeline for a less accommodative policy stance), will probably use any setback in headline CPI and the still very low level of core CPI to deliver a rebuke to the hawks such as Lautenschlaeger and Weidmann. The first state to report is Saxony with the March reading to 1.8% vs. 2.4% y/y, and the core measure slipping to 1.2% from 1.4% - this is not always a good guide to the national reading, but probably a good indication that risks are clearly to the downside of the consensus. The EC's confidence surveys are also due, and expected to show a further pick-up across the board, with the consensus estimates looking to be somewhat under-clubbed if the array of national readings are anything to go by, thus continuing to run counter to the narrative that due to political woes and uncertainties, Euro area and EU economies are at risk of imminent derailment.
** U.S.A. - Q4 final GDP / Jobless Claims **
- As is typical, the second revision to Q4 GDP is likely to be at best marginal, with the consensus looking for 2.0% SAAR vs. prior 1.9%, on the back of an upward revision to Final Domestic Sales to 1.0% from 0.9%, and thus affirming the mixed contributions to overall GDP - Personal Consumption 2.05 ppt, Inventories 0.94 ppt, Fixed Asset CapEx 0.51 ppt and a hefty deduction from Exports of 0.5 ppt. Markets are now focussed on Q1 with the various regional Fed tracking estimates, from the downbeat Atlanta Fed 1.0% through the St Louis Fed's 2.7% to NY Fed's 3.0%, which hardly helps markets to gain an insight to actual trends. This dissonance is discussed in a paper by the St Louis Fed in attempt to explain the divergence, which can be found here - https://research.stlouisfed.org/pub...does-data-confusion-equal-forecast-confusion/. After a sharp jump to a twelve week high of 261K last week having hit a new 43-yr low at 227K three weeks prior, Initial Claims are seen drifting down to 247K, i.e. into the range which as prevailed for much of the past 4 months.
from Marc Ostwald
G'day folks,
Agree....see how we react to that zone starting 7385, scalps around 7400 and Rez 7410 - 20.
Looking for the bulls atm..... bears are waiting in the wings. let's see
Ftse should find some support 7350ish....if the bulls are in town...as I said before bears are waiting in the wings...lets see
Moneylender
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Atilla
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Dentalfloss
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In Kingston having lunch
Beautiful day to spend the pips
Beautiful day to spend the pips
Yes.....some nice pubs down by the river, used to like to walk down to one in a small park near the rowing club and have a few ales there....
