Dentalfloss
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dax into the open
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Olive Oyl
needs Popeye and some Spinach
needs Popeye and some Spinach
Dentalfloss
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is it a dead cat bounce or a new uptrend
48.24 area first supp
48.24 area first supp
Dentalfloss
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49.32 is a big momma
49.00-49.32 is biggish rez
49.00-49.32 is biggish rez
finding some buyers @7355..will it sustain
Doesn't look like it...scalps both ways only atm
Dentalfloss
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- Article 50 trigger to vie with quarter end and perennial 'buy the dip'
flows as overarching theme; weak Japan Retail Sales to digest ahead of
UK credit data and US New Home Sales; more Fed speak & EIA inventories
- UK Credit/Mortgage Lending: modest slip in credit, small uptick in
Mortgage Lending seen despite softer BBA/CML readings
- US Pending Home Sales: expected to rebound from January drop, still
constrained by low levels of existing home inventories
- Charts: WTI Oil, GBP COT net IMM positioning
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The feeling that markets are almost completely in thrall to quarter end flows, positioning and window dressing, is becoming inescapable, and today's modest schedule run of data and events seems unlikely to unseat that as the overarching influence. What yesterday's price action underlines is that the TINA driven 'buy the dip' in riskier assets thematic of recent years continues to be a very dominant influence. Statistically there are the very sluggish overnight Japan Retail Sales to digest ahead of UK Consumer Credit and Mortgage Lending, while the US has Pending Home Sales. On the event side, today will see the official triggering of Article 50 by the UK government, though the letter that is delivered to the European Commission will do little more than reiterate the PM May's statement to Parliament back in January, with the initial outline of the UK's negotiating position set to be published on Friday, which will be the more market sensitive item. It should be added that the ups and downs of the GBP in recent days, above all vs. the USD have owed far more to USD sentiment swings on the perceived implications of the Trump-flation trade, even though some media stories would have us believe otherwise. The IMM COT data for GBP indicated that there remains a huge short position, even if price action since the last reporting period should have reduced that somewhat (see chart). There will also be more Fedspeak from Evans, Rosengren and Williams, while the US completes this week's refunding with the auctions of 2-yr FRN and a new 7-yr Treasury Note. It also EIA petroleum inventories with the larger than expected rise in API Crude Inventories (1.9 mln vs. forecast 1.4 mln) doing little to dent the modest bounce in oil prices, perhaps indicative that oil prices have for the time being found a level around which they can stabilize.
** U.K. - Feb Consumer Credit, Mortgage Lending **
- The consensus looks for a modest slip to £1.3 Bln in Consumer Credit, which would imply that y/y growth remains around an unsustainable 10% pace (above all in the context of tepid wage growth), particularly given a growing mass of anecdotal evidence of increasing numbers of distressed borrowers, which increasingly give credence to the view that consumer spending will slow significantly as this year progresses. Somewhat surprisingly, Lending Secured on Dwellings is seen edging up to £3.5 Bln (Jan £3.4 Bln), although the weaker BBA and CML data suggested that the risks are clearly to the downside.
** U.S.A. - Feb Pending Home Sales **
- Following a sharper than expected 2.8% m/m setback in January, Pending Home Sales are seen rebounding by 2.5% m/m, which would fit with the robust profile of the NAHB Housing Market Index. That said, very low levels of inventories of existing homes for sale continues to act as a significant restraint, despite solid underlying demand. Thus far, the uptick in Mortgage Rates since Q4 has thus far been less of a constraint on demand, though buyers are probably looking to ensure that purchases are completed as quickly as possible, given the Fed's stated intent to gradually push official rates higher.
from Marc Ostwald
flows as overarching theme; weak Japan Retail Sales to digest ahead of
UK credit data and US New Home Sales; more Fed speak & EIA inventories
- UK Credit/Mortgage Lending: modest slip in credit, small uptick in
Mortgage Lending seen despite softer BBA/CML readings
- US Pending Home Sales: expected to rebound from January drop, still
constrained by low levels of existing home inventories
- Charts: WTI Oil, GBP COT net IMM positioning
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The feeling that markets are almost completely in thrall to quarter end flows, positioning and window dressing, is becoming inescapable, and today's modest schedule run of data and events seems unlikely to unseat that as the overarching influence. What yesterday's price action underlines is that the TINA driven 'buy the dip' in riskier assets thematic of recent years continues to be a very dominant influence. Statistically there are the very sluggish overnight Japan Retail Sales to digest ahead of UK Consumer Credit and Mortgage Lending, while the US has Pending Home Sales. On the event side, today will see the official triggering of Article 50 by the UK government, though the letter that is delivered to the European Commission will do little more than reiterate the PM May's statement to Parliament back in January, with the initial outline of the UK's negotiating position set to be published on Friday, which will be the more market sensitive item. It should be added that the ups and downs of the GBP in recent days, above all vs. the USD have owed far more to USD sentiment swings on the perceived implications of the Trump-flation trade, even though some media stories would have us believe otherwise. The IMM COT data for GBP indicated that there remains a huge short position, even if price action since the last reporting period should have reduced that somewhat (see chart). There will also be more Fedspeak from Evans, Rosengren and Williams, while the US completes this week's refunding with the auctions of 2-yr FRN and a new 7-yr Treasury Note. It also EIA petroleum inventories with the larger than expected rise in API Crude Inventories (1.9 mln vs. forecast 1.4 mln) doing little to dent the modest bounce in oil prices, perhaps indicative that oil prices have for the time being found a level around which they can stabilize.
** U.K. - Feb Consumer Credit, Mortgage Lending **
- The consensus looks for a modest slip to £1.3 Bln in Consumer Credit, which would imply that y/y growth remains around an unsustainable 10% pace (above all in the context of tepid wage growth), particularly given a growing mass of anecdotal evidence of increasing numbers of distressed borrowers, which increasingly give credence to the view that consumer spending will slow significantly as this year progresses. Somewhat surprisingly, Lending Secured on Dwellings is seen edging up to £3.5 Bln (Jan £3.4 Bln), although the weaker BBA and CML data suggested that the risks are clearly to the downside.
** U.S.A. - Feb Pending Home Sales **
- Following a sharper than expected 2.8% m/m setback in January, Pending Home Sales are seen rebounding by 2.5% m/m, which would fit with the robust profile of the NAHB Housing Market Index. That said, very low levels of inventories of existing homes for sale continues to act as a significant restraint, despite solid underlying demand. Thus far, the uptick in Mortgage Rates since Q4 has thus far been less of a constraint on demand, though buyers are probably looking to ensure that purchases are completed as quickly as possible, given the Fed's stated intent to gradually push official rates higher.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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oil
pump or dump 48.85
pump or dump 48.85
Dentalfloss
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cable 1.2430 pump or dump area
Dentalfloss
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dow..needs to test 20660 area
prev rez
prev rez
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
pump or dump 1.0800
pump or dump 1.0800
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy 138.00 pivot
Dentalfloss
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swissy 0.9950 pivot area
pump or dump
pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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usdjpy 110.88 supp
111.50 rez
111.50 rez
