Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
this seems better inputs
price popped at NFP...then we started a new downtrend
price popped at NFP...then we started a new downtrend
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
ugh...its really messy..
you just dont know whether that horizontal supp holds and we bust out
even though we started a new downtrend after NFP
difficult...lol
you just dont know whether that horizontal supp holds and we bust out
even though we started a new downtrend after NFP
difficult...lol
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
oil...still a dog
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
that is goin to take more than a tes of supp to get it going
48.00 needs to be the supp
imho
48.00 needs to be the supp
imho
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
eurusd in a bull flag
60 min bar chart
60 min bar chart
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
cable...still a dog
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
47.04...biggish number
makes that chart alot more bearish
activates a 3 box downside count
poss downside target of $44.00
makes that chart alot more bearish
activates a 3 box downside count
poss downside target of $44.00
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
not good for index
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
cad goin to get hammered if oil plummets
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
mornin folks
Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
Morning boss.
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
- FOMC and Dutch elections 'front and centre', but UK labour data, US CPI,
Retail Sales, NY Fed Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Index also vying for
attention; German 30-year and EIA inventories data also due
- Netherlands election: final polls suggest Turkey diplomatic spat boosting
PM Rutte and weighing on support for PVV
- UK labour data: solid Employment again expected, earnings seen drifting
slightly lower
- US CPI: headline seen little change m/m but rising y/y, core seen up
on persistent housing and medical care pressures; PPI implies upside
risks
- US Retail Sales; Autos, Gasoline and delayed tax rebate payments
expected to restrain
- FOMC: rate hike fully discounted, dot plot trajectory seen revised higher,
perhaps some very modest upward revisions to economic forecasts; balance
sheet reduction plans also in focus
- Charts: WTI; Eurodollar strip: June/Dec 2017, June 17/18 & Dec 17/18
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
One could certainly be forgiven for thinking that today is all about the Fed, but that is eminently the case, given amongst other things there is a busy programme of US statistics via way of CPI, Retail Sales, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories & TIC Portfolio Flows. Elsewhere the Dutch General Election will be closely watched as will Chinese Premier Li's closing address to the annual National People’s Congress, with UK Unemployment & Average Weekly Earnings and Italian Retail Sales also featuring on the statistical schedule. Germany offers a modest EUR 1.0 Bln of its current 30-yr Bund, for which domestic demand is traditionally weak, and thus sees a high frequency of 'technical failures'. The EIA's oil inventory data will also be very closely watched, after yesterday's API saw an unexpected drawdown of Crude Inventories and larger than forecast falls in gasoline and distillate stocks, which appear to have allowed oil prices to find a near-term base.
** Netherlands - General Election **
- As the first of this year's EU elections, and with the dark cloud of bigoted populism casting a long shadow, and many doubts about the survival of the Eurozone and the EU as a consequence, as well as the Brexit and US election 'surprises', today's vote has certainly captured the imagination of markets and the broader populace. The latest opinion polls suggest that four parties will gain some 22-25 seats in the 150 seat parliament, with PM Rutte getting a late boost perhaps from the week-end face-off with Turkey, and suggesting that his Liberal Party may gain as many 27 seats, and thus get the initial opportunity to form a coalition govt, rather than the Wilders' PVV, who led polls for many months. The other main parties have already ruled out any form of coalition with the PVV. The post-election negotiations to form a new coalition will thus likely be very protracted, the more so if Mr Wilders PVV gains most seats, and will likely require four parties as opposed to the current two. A rather more expansionary fiscal stance is expected, reflecting both the underlying improvement in the economy, as well as the likelihood that the new coalition will include parties from the right, centre and left of the political spectrum.
** U.S.A. - Feb CPI, Retail Sales **
- While headline CPI is seen little changed in m/m terms and core CPI is as ever forecast to rise 0.2%, y/y rates are projected to remain well above target at 2.7% and 2.2% respectively vs. January's 2.5% and 2.3%, while 3-mth annualized rates would remain even higher at 3.2% and 2.9% respectively if the consensus estimates correct. Gasoline prices were largely stable in February, and much will thus depend on Food and Clothing prices in terms of the headline outturn, while housing (OER) and medical care/medicines will likely continue to be the main sources of upward pressure. Yesterday's broadly stronger than expected PPI again implies some upside risks relative to forecasts. After a very solid pick-up in January, above all ex-Autos, Retail Sales are expected to have been very restrained with gains of just 0.1% to 0.2% m/m expected on all measures, both as a form of mean reversion to prior strength and due to the late payment of tax rebates, with the 'real' consumer spending slippage in turn being the driver of the progressive downward revisions over recent weeks to the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDPnow forecast to the current 1.4%. Be that as it may, slower gasoline sales (and lower prices) are expected to have been a further restraint along with slightly weaker than expected Auto Sales, and after a protracted run of price related weakness, it will be interesting to see if Apparel Sales show any signs of revival.
** U.S.A. - FOMC meeting & press conference **
- A 25 bps Fed rate hike to a 0.75%-1.0% range is now fully discounted, with Friday's very solid labour market report cementing that expectation, and leaving markets looking for 'guidance' on the rate trajectory, above all from the often misconstrued and over-emphasized (i.e. by markets) 'dot plot', as well as adjustments to the Fed's latest set of central economic projections, with the statement eyed for the balance of risks assessment for the economy, above all for the Fed's inflation and employment targets. In respect of the 'dot plot', it will be interesting to see if there is any tightening in the range of views on the rate trajectory, which would fit with the less divergent policy messages that have come from all Fed speakers since the start of the year, and would also signal a sense of purpose and determination in gradually and gently removing policy accommodation going forward. It should be stressed that in contrast to the shilly-shallying of the past two years, the FOMC has much less wiggle room given current levels of inflation, unemployment and growth, and the determination which has been on display thus far this year. doubtless reflects their awareness that they will actively seek to avoid a situation where a more aggressive (e.g. 50 bps) hike might be necessary. As such, the 'if in doubt' stance changes from the often convoluted rationales for postponing tightening in recent years to the current situation where the bar for not gently tightening policy is high. 'Data dependency' will doubtless remain the key watchword, and Yellen's press conference message will re-emphasize that the FOMC is not 'behind the curve', though the minutes (in 3 weeks) will doubtless underline that there is a sizeable minority who are very concerned that the Fed is 'behind the curve'. Last but not least, markets appear to be largely ignoring the risk that there may well be a broader FOMC discussion about the timing and pace of Fed balance sheet reduction, aka quantitative tightening, which many market participants continue to believe is a rather distant prospect. It is also worth noting that there still appears to be considerable skepticism about the future path for rates despite the sharp shift in expectations for this meeting, as can be seen in some of the calendar spreads on the Eurodollar futures strip - see attached charts.
from Marc Ostwald
Retail Sales, NY Fed Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Index also vying for
attention; German 30-year and EIA inventories data also due
- Netherlands election: final polls suggest Turkey diplomatic spat boosting
PM Rutte and weighing on support for PVV
- UK labour data: solid Employment again expected, earnings seen drifting
slightly lower
- US CPI: headline seen little change m/m but rising y/y, core seen up
on persistent housing and medical care pressures; PPI implies upside
risks
- US Retail Sales; Autos, Gasoline and delayed tax rebate payments
expected to restrain
- FOMC: rate hike fully discounted, dot plot trajectory seen revised higher,
perhaps some very modest upward revisions to economic forecasts; balance
sheet reduction plans also in focus
- Charts: WTI; Eurodollar strip: June/Dec 2017, June 17/18 & Dec 17/18
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
One could certainly be forgiven for thinking that today is all about the Fed, but that is eminently the case, given amongst other things there is a busy programme of US statistics via way of CPI, Retail Sales, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories & TIC Portfolio Flows. Elsewhere the Dutch General Election will be closely watched as will Chinese Premier Li's closing address to the annual National People’s Congress, with UK Unemployment & Average Weekly Earnings and Italian Retail Sales also featuring on the statistical schedule. Germany offers a modest EUR 1.0 Bln of its current 30-yr Bund, for which domestic demand is traditionally weak, and thus sees a high frequency of 'technical failures'. The EIA's oil inventory data will also be very closely watched, after yesterday's API saw an unexpected drawdown of Crude Inventories and larger than forecast falls in gasoline and distillate stocks, which appear to have allowed oil prices to find a near-term base.
** Netherlands - General Election **
- As the first of this year's EU elections, and with the dark cloud of bigoted populism casting a long shadow, and many doubts about the survival of the Eurozone and the EU as a consequence, as well as the Brexit and US election 'surprises', today's vote has certainly captured the imagination of markets and the broader populace. The latest opinion polls suggest that four parties will gain some 22-25 seats in the 150 seat parliament, with PM Rutte getting a late boost perhaps from the week-end face-off with Turkey, and suggesting that his Liberal Party may gain as many 27 seats, and thus get the initial opportunity to form a coalition govt, rather than the Wilders' PVV, who led polls for many months. The other main parties have already ruled out any form of coalition with the PVV. The post-election negotiations to form a new coalition will thus likely be very protracted, the more so if Mr Wilders PVV gains most seats, and will likely require four parties as opposed to the current two. A rather more expansionary fiscal stance is expected, reflecting both the underlying improvement in the economy, as well as the likelihood that the new coalition will include parties from the right, centre and left of the political spectrum.
** U.S.A. - Feb CPI, Retail Sales **
- While headline CPI is seen little changed in m/m terms and core CPI is as ever forecast to rise 0.2%, y/y rates are projected to remain well above target at 2.7% and 2.2% respectively vs. January's 2.5% and 2.3%, while 3-mth annualized rates would remain even higher at 3.2% and 2.9% respectively if the consensus estimates correct. Gasoline prices were largely stable in February, and much will thus depend on Food and Clothing prices in terms of the headline outturn, while housing (OER) and medical care/medicines will likely continue to be the main sources of upward pressure. Yesterday's broadly stronger than expected PPI again implies some upside risks relative to forecasts. After a very solid pick-up in January, above all ex-Autos, Retail Sales are expected to have been very restrained with gains of just 0.1% to 0.2% m/m expected on all measures, both as a form of mean reversion to prior strength and due to the late payment of tax rebates, with the 'real' consumer spending slippage in turn being the driver of the progressive downward revisions over recent weeks to the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDPnow forecast to the current 1.4%. Be that as it may, slower gasoline sales (and lower prices) are expected to have been a further restraint along with slightly weaker than expected Auto Sales, and after a protracted run of price related weakness, it will be interesting to see if Apparel Sales show any signs of revival.
** U.S.A. - FOMC meeting & press conference **
- A 25 bps Fed rate hike to a 0.75%-1.0% range is now fully discounted, with Friday's very solid labour market report cementing that expectation, and leaving markets looking for 'guidance' on the rate trajectory, above all from the often misconstrued and over-emphasized (i.e. by markets) 'dot plot', as well as adjustments to the Fed's latest set of central economic projections, with the statement eyed for the balance of risks assessment for the economy, above all for the Fed's inflation and employment targets. In respect of the 'dot plot', it will be interesting to see if there is any tightening in the range of views on the rate trajectory, which would fit with the less divergent policy messages that have come from all Fed speakers since the start of the year, and would also signal a sense of purpose and determination in gradually and gently removing policy accommodation going forward. It should be stressed that in contrast to the shilly-shallying of the past two years, the FOMC has much less wiggle room given current levels of inflation, unemployment and growth, and the determination which has been on display thus far this year. doubtless reflects their awareness that they will actively seek to avoid a situation where a more aggressive (e.g. 50 bps) hike might be necessary. As such, the 'if in doubt' stance changes from the often convoluted rationales for postponing tightening in recent years to the current situation where the bar for not gently tightening policy is high. 'Data dependency' will doubtless remain the key watchword, and Yellen's press conference message will re-emphasize that the FOMC is not 'behind the curve', though the minutes (in 3 weeks) will doubtless underline that there is a sizeable minority who are very concerned that the Fed is 'behind the curve'. Last but not least, markets appear to be largely ignoring the risk that there may well be a broader FOMC discussion about the timing and pace of Fed balance sheet reduction, aka quantitative tightening, which many market participants continue to believe is a rather distant prospect. It is also worth noting that there still appears to be considerable skepticism about the future path for rates despite the sharp shift in expectations for this meeting, as can be seen in some of the calendar spreads on the Eurodollar futures strip - see attached charts.
from Marc Ostwald
G'day folks,
Ftse - rangebound atm sp 7350-60, rez 7380-90. Note defence at sp 7350 yesterday. Therefore still bullish (just).
Cable - sp1.215 rez 1.225 - slight bullish bias creeping in. Held 1.215 very well.
Oil WTI - bit of scrambling going on after yesterdays test 4730 - sp 48 rez 4850. Needs to hold above 48 otherwise could be going 45 sp. If 48 holds looking to range to 50 rez.
All opinion from mk1 eyeball....could be wrong.
Ftse - rangebound atm sp 7350-60, rez 7380-90. Note defence at sp 7350 yesterday. Therefore still bullish (just).
Cable - sp1.215 rez 1.225 - slight bullish bias creeping in. Held 1.215 very well.
Oil WTI - bit of scrambling going on after yesterdays test 4730 - sp 48 rez 4850. Needs to hold above 48 otherwise could be going 45 sp. If 48 holds looking to range to 50 rez.
All opinion from mk1 eyeball....could be wrong.
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
dax
12K again
excellent
12K again
excellent
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
oil in 48 area
as supp..??
as supp..??
Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
First 15 days of March, now where? Its all a bit messy, the main trend is down but are we on a fake up again. Interest rate hike tonight out to clarify a little.
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
oil in a dead cat bounce....maybe..??
green horizontals
green horizontals
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
if that is a dead cat..it will take index with it when it dumps
Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
Thats what I am betting on!!:cheesy:
