Trading with point and figure

Aussie

1 month of data
pump or dump 0.7700
masses of horizontal supp
 

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- Digesting Japan GDP, awaiting EC winter economic forecast update, OPEC
Oil market report; Renzi seen forcing PD leadership election

- Week Ahead: busy week for UK and US statistics - CPI and Retail Sales
top schedule; China inflation and lending, Europe looking to Q4 GDP
prints and ZEW, Australia Unemployment

- Week Ahead: politics still front and central - US, France, Italy and UK

- Week Ahead: Yellen semi-annual testimony eagerly awaited for improbable
clear policy hints; could be usurped by Dodd-Frank discussion following
Tarullo resignation

- Week Ahead: France & Spain top Eurozone auction schedule, UK and US to
sell inflation-linked; busier week seen for US$ corporate issuance

- Charts: WTI future, CFTC energy futures positions

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A busy week gets off to a modest start with the focus on the overnight Japan Q4 GDP, the European Commission's winter economic forecast update, which should underline an improving outlook, and OPEC's monthly Oil Market Report, after suggesting last week that compliance with the production cuts is running at a 'record high' 90%. The provisional Japan Q4 GDP data offered no real surprises, with domestic demand continuing to be hobbled by weak private consumption, which was not even offset by Housing Investment (0.2% q/q) as it had been in recent quarters. That said the best contribution from External Demand (0.2 ppts) since 2014 and a rebound in Business CapEx (0.9% q/q) offer some solace, though neither are likely to help to push real wages higher, with Japan Inc seemingly set on keeping 2017 wage rises to a bare minimum, this despite labour market indicators suggesting zero 'slack'. As for the Trump-Abe meeting, this did not see any of the worst fears realized, indeed seemed to be little more than a jamboree of dull platitudes and 27 holes of golf. Of greater significance is the suggestion from 'sources' that China's regulator is considering lifting some of the curbs on local stock futures trading, which in turn would imply that this sector looks to be the 'rotation' trade for the next bubble in the virtuous circle of bubbles in Chinese assets, which continue to highlight that Chinese domestic capital markets are woefully underdeveloped to meet the needs of its vast pool of savings. Former Italian PM Renzi is set to resign as PD leader today, forcing a leadership election, as part of his efforts to force a general election in June, or by September at the latest, with the latest Piepoli poll showing the PD leading M5S 32% to 27%.


UPDATED: The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 13 to 17 February 2017

If economic statistics and central bankers want to give politicians a run for their money in terms of grabbing asset markets by the scruff of their necks and demanding attention, then this is a week which could fit the bill. Politics will eminently never be far away in all its various guises as Trump meets with Israeli PM Netanyahu ahead of the G20 foreign ministers' meeting and the annual Munich Security Conference. Trump edicts, the French presidential elections, former PM Renzi's attempt to force an early election in Italy and the latest Greek debt/bail-out drama will also be high on the menu.

- Statistics: a bumper week for data in the US and UK see Retail Sales and CPI in both; Industrial Production, PPI, NY/Philly Fed & NAHB surveys and Housing Starts in the US; Unemployment, Average Earnings and ONS House Prices in the UK. China has CPI, PPI, FDI and monetary/lending aggregates, while there is GDP data from Germany (where the ZEW is also due), Japan among many others, and Australia has Unemployment. With growth aggregates in the UK and US looking relatively healthy (eminently contingent on this week's run), the focus will be on inflation readings. While seasonal discounting and the usual slide in airfares is expected to see UK CPI drop 0.5% m/m, base effects (particularly energy) will see the CPI y/y rate push up to 1.9% from 1.6%, with RPI seen at 2.8% and RPIX at 3.1%. The risks look to be heavily skewed to the upside, despite the highly anomalous BRC Shop Price drop, with my own personal anecdotal evidence showing supermarkets putting price increases of 10/20% for numerous products, leaving aside supply related problems for some fruit and vegetables. Energy price base effects are also seen pacing a projected 0.3% m/m 2.4% y/y rise in in headline US CPI vs. December's 2.1%, but core CPI is seen up the usual 0.2% m/m, which would see the y/y rate slip to 2.1% from 2.2%. The market narrative around the rise in inflation in the DM universe is that they are largely due to energy price base effects, which will run their course by the end of Q1; however this ignores the fact that food prices were a key restraint on inflation over the past years, and as the latest UN FAO Food Price Index seeing a 3.7% m/m 16.4% y/y rise, these are now being rapidly reversed. Last but certainly not least, China's CPI is forecast to push higher once again to 2.4% y/y from 2.1% y/y, though barring an upside surprise, PPI will once again garner most attention with another large jump to 6.6% y/y from 5.5%, both of which underline why the authorities are in no position to tolerate another sustained bout of CNY weakness, above all vs. the USD

- Central Banks: Following on from Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer rather non-committal speech on Saturday, in which he underlined that the Fed would strictly adhere to its price and employment mandate, despite the uncertainties about fiscal policy, Yellen presents her semi-annual testimony to House and Senate Committees. She will probably try and stress that March is a 'live' meeting in terms of a rate hike, but otherwise not stray far from the largely guidance free February 1 statement. Indeed the economic and monetary policy element could become overwhelmed by discussions around the scope of Dodd-Frank changes, the more so given Tarullo's resignation from the Fed board on Friday, Tarullo having been the Fed governor responsible for bank regulation.

- Corporate earnings start to ebb, but report from the likes of Allianz, Cisco, Credit Suisse, Deere & Co, Nestle, Pepsico and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries will attract attention

- A busier week for Eurozone auctions has some EUR 8.5 Bln from Italy, EUR 9.5 Bln of conventional and inflation-linked in France and an estimated EUR 5.0 bln from Spain. The UK sells £1.25 Bln of 2026 Index-Linked, while the US sells $7.0 Bln of 30-yr TIPS and Japan sells JPY 2.4 Trln of 5-yr JGBs. DCM bankers suggest that next week will be busier in terms of USD corporate issuance, with an estimated $25 Bln seen in the pipeline.

from Marc Ostwald
 
dax
that horizontal rez is in 11750 area
no break of downtrend ..as yet
11640 area is prev breakout/rez
could be supp if it recoils
11700-11718 first supp area
then 11680..ish
pivot/rez at 11804 area
 
dentist007 said:
dax
that horizontal rez is in 11750 area
no break of downtrend ..as yet
11640 area is prev breakout/rez
could be supp if it recoils
11700-11718 first supp area
then 11680..ish
pivot/rez at 11804 area
Click to expand...
wham
straight into our pivot rez
excellent
 
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