Dentalfloss
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19850 area is a real dog
trend rez area on close plot
we saw that yesterday
trend rez area on close plot
we saw that yesterday
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
Dentalfloss
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2 supp areas marked...we are in the aqua zone now
green is below..7150 area
rez starts at 7266 area
above 7300 is mega rez
lets see what happens
green is below..7150 area
rez starts at 7266 area
above 7300 is mega rez
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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DAX over the last 2 weeks
got a bit more bu8llish the last few days
got a bit more bu8llish the last few days
Dentalfloss
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CABLE
on the cusp of getting bullish
a break of aqua horizontal makes it more bullish...poss 1.2800 area
on the cusp of getting bullish
a break of aqua horizontal makes it more bullish...poss 1.2800 area
Dentalfloss
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oil
recoiling in a downtrend
rez marked
recoiling in a downtrend
rez marked
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
looks like it wants to pop to 1.0850 area
looks like it wants to pop to 1.0850 area
Moneylender
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Fresh week, looks like the down trend has been broken (Trend within a trend) 19850 could be a tough nut,
has held several times recently.
has held several times recently.
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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cable in mega rez...possibly
Dentalfloss
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eurusd in a pump or dump
1.0750 area
1.0750 area
Dentalfloss
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dow lookin tricky....poss dead cat bounce on Friday
Dentalfloss
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usdjpy gettin supported in our 113.00 supp area
Dentalfloss
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dollar been under pressure..can it recover..??
Dentalfloss
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ftse should be in support
Dentalfloss
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dax in our 11520 supp area
Dentalfloss
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dow in our 19760 supp area
Dentalfloss
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audusd..pump or dump 0.7600
Dentalfloss
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dax and ftse...poss a bit of overshoot/downwards
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Marc Ostwald
08:14 (16 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Light schedule of data and events to start the week with markets
digesting latest PBOC moves to manage liquidity over Lunar New Year
holidays, and focussing on Trump's early moves and UK/Brexit related
news flow
- Week Ahead: UK and US Q4 GDP top data agenda, PMIs and Ifo the focus
in busy week for surveys; Japan, Oz and NZ CPI also due
- Week Ahead: Fed goes into 'purdah', some ECB/BOE speak; Turkey TCMB
seen hiking rates, but may not be enough to boost beleaguered TRY
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While UK and US politics will dominate today's rather meagre schedule of statistics and events, there is likely to be considerable discussion about China's PBOC measures to manage market liquidity over the Lunar New Year holidays (see http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-market-liquidity-idUKKBN15705S). However the moves to tell Chinese banks to issue USD denominated debt signal a degree of desperation in regards to capital flows, and will heighten speculation about further curbs after the Lunar New year.
The Week Ahead * updated * - Bullet point highlights: 23 to 27 January 2017
- All eyes will be on what President Trump prioritizes in terms of policy implementation, and while the first indications are that he will not be waiting to get his feet under the table, his initial set of actions do not encompass actions which financial markets have been hoping will giving the economy a boost, but rather the array of negatives which the rest of the world fears, and the more circumspect financial market participants have highlighted. He meets with UK PM May on Friday. The Lunar New Year holidays in East Asia. In broader terms, while Trump looks to have set off on the wrong foot, his ostensible determination to turn words into actions will at least offer some fairly rapid insights into how his working relationship with Congress is going to shape up, clarifying one of the many uncertainties relating to his presidency. This will above all apply to his spending plans, and how they are to be financed, given Congress' penchant for a conservative stance on fiscal matters. Chatter in some sections of the Capitol Hill media suggest that he and his cabinet are looking to cut $1.0 Trln per annum for the next 10 years to fund his spending plans.
- Statistically the US (Friday exp 2.2% SAAR) and UK (Thursday exp 0.5% q/q 2.1% y/y) top a run of advance / provisional Q4 GDP readings, which includes South Korea and Taiwan. The US also looks to Durable Goods, Advance Goods Trade Balance, New and Existing Home Sales, while Australia, Japan and New Zealand have CPI and other inflation data, while the UK has PSNB Budget data and Japan also looks to its Trade Balance. The Eurozone is dominated by surveys including the German Ifo and other national business and consumer confidence surveys.
- Central banks: there are no Fed speakers (as the FOMC heads into 'purdah' ahead of its 31 Jan/1 Feb meeting), but ECB and BoE speakers will be relatively plentiful. Turkey's TCMB policy meeting tops the run of EM central bank meetings with the TCMB seen succumbing to the inevitable by hiking its Repo rate +50 bps to 8.50% and the O/N Lending Rate +75 Bps to 9.25%. Whether this will in reality help to stem the TRY's slide is dubious, given a) it would be a rather timid move when seen in the context of the size of TRY's drop, b) real official rates (as measured vs. the Repo rate) would remain flat to negative, i.e. way below the 4.0-6.0% on offer in the likes of Brazil and Russia, and c) and Turkey's domestic and international political position remains dreadful.
- Politics: Outside of the primary focus on Trump's first week in office, it will also be an important week for the UK and the Brexit process. The UK Supreme Court is expected to confirm the High Court's ruling that Article 50 will have to be triggered with a vote in parliament. While there is talk that the judges may be split (some have suggested 7-4), it is to be hoped that PM May and the Brexit lobby do not try to suggest that this represents a degree of vindication for the government's stance. Be that as it may, PM May is also set to outline a new 'Industrial Strategy', which finds many echoes in the 1970s and 1980s Labour party policy, just as her Davos WEF tirade against individualism had unpleasant overtones of German Nationalist Socialist rhetoric. For example, as my father told me, one of the mantras that was drummed into the teenagers pressganged into the Hitler Youth was 'Mein Land ist alles, Ich bin nichts' (my country is nothing, I am nothing). Likewise President Trump's tirade against the media certainly finds some justification in terms of the deluge of Fake News that is being peddled; however the route he appears to want to pursue, some form of 'alt truth' is no different to Fake News. Indeed it is rather more insidious and above all socially divisive and polarizing, and finds examples in the Soviet and Putin propaganda machines, as well as the oppression of any form of criticism currently being attempted/deployed by Turkish president Erdogan, Hungarian PM Orban and Poland's PiS leader Kaczynski.
- Corporate Earnings: the schedule in the US steps up a pace with more than 80 S&P 500 companies reporting, beginning with McDonald's on Monday, and 3M, Du Pont, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers & Verizon on Tuesday. Boeing and United Technologies report on Wednesday, followed by Intel and Microsoft on Thursday, with Chevron on Friday. As of Friday, Factset report that the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 3.4%, and with 12% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for Q4 2016, 61% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the mean EPS estimate and 47% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the mean sales estimate.
- Govt bonds: the US heads the week with $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr Treasury couponed debt and $15 Bln of a new 2-yr Treausry FRN. The UK sells a new 2057 conventional Gilt via syndication, most likely on Tuesday. After some EUR 30 Bln last week, scheduled sales in the Eurozone are set to drop sharply to around EUR 5.0-6.0 Bln (Dutch 5-yr, German 30-yr and Italian 2-yr Zero and BTPeis), though syndicated sales are mooted for Spain, as well as Austria and Finland. As with equity markets, govt bonds have been rangebound year to date, still looking for a narrative (beyond the confines of financial repression dictated TINA) to grab hold of amid the array of political, economic and monetary policy uncertainties, which seem unlikely to lift anytime soon, though perhaps one or other group of major investors may decide to 'jump the gun', even if the appalling levels of liquidity and market depth would seem to argue against this.
- Commodities/Energy: The weekend 'compliance' meeting of OPEc and Non-OPEC producers struck a self-congratulatory note (see: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKBN1560CI), suggesting that cuts to output were ahead of schedule. Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih even suggested that excess inventories may be cut by June (and by implication the production cut deal would not 'need' to be extended) - only time will tell, with much depending on how the 2016 demand profile is revised. Elsewhere, the key question for non-precious metals markets is a) what impact the absence of the Chinese markets over the next two weeks will have, particularly on some of the overstretched price pictures, and b) what the profile of Chinese demand will be in the new Lunar Year, particularly given the Chinese authorities' measures to clamp down on property market speculation.
At a loose end this evening?
You are cordially invited to listen…Hosted by Dr. Stu... The N@ked Short Club Happens on Monday, Jan.23 9-10pm/21.00-22.00 hrs., London time, on Resonance 104.4FM within London/online worldwide via www.resonancefm.com:
One hour of loose talk about hedge funds and the state of the world plus poetry and heady music:
No promotional agenda, no commercial intent...just Purest Alpha and Ponzi Bier in these interesting times, with expert guests: Philippe Bonnefoy - CIO, Eleuthera; Marc Ostwald - FX, Rates & EM Strategist, ADM ISI; Margie Lindsay- Editor, Alpha Journal; Robert Duggan - Managing Partner, Mourant Ozannes; plus by telepathic transfer from Virginia, Don Steinbrugge - CEO, Agecroft. Poetry: Maya Binkin. Master Engineer: Chris Dixon.
from Marc Ostwald
08:14 (16 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Light schedule of data and events to start the week with markets
digesting latest PBOC moves to manage liquidity over Lunar New Year
holidays, and focussing on Trump's early moves and UK/Brexit related
news flow
- Week Ahead: UK and US Q4 GDP top data agenda, PMIs and Ifo the focus
in busy week for surveys; Japan, Oz and NZ CPI also due
- Week Ahead: Fed goes into 'purdah', some ECB/BOE speak; Turkey TCMB
seen hiking rates, but may not be enough to boost beleaguered TRY
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While UK and US politics will dominate today's rather meagre schedule of statistics and events, there is likely to be considerable discussion about China's PBOC measures to manage market liquidity over the Lunar New Year holidays (see http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-market-liquidity-idUKKBN15705S). However the moves to tell Chinese banks to issue USD denominated debt signal a degree of desperation in regards to capital flows, and will heighten speculation about further curbs after the Lunar New year.
The Week Ahead * updated * - Bullet point highlights: 23 to 27 January 2017
- All eyes will be on what President Trump prioritizes in terms of policy implementation, and while the first indications are that he will not be waiting to get his feet under the table, his initial set of actions do not encompass actions which financial markets have been hoping will giving the economy a boost, but rather the array of negatives which the rest of the world fears, and the more circumspect financial market participants have highlighted. He meets with UK PM May on Friday. The Lunar New Year holidays in East Asia. In broader terms, while Trump looks to have set off on the wrong foot, his ostensible determination to turn words into actions will at least offer some fairly rapid insights into how his working relationship with Congress is going to shape up, clarifying one of the many uncertainties relating to his presidency. This will above all apply to his spending plans, and how they are to be financed, given Congress' penchant for a conservative stance on fiscal matters. Chatter in some sections of the Capitol Hill media suggest that he and his cabinet are looking to cut $1.0 Trln per annum for the next 10 years to fund his spending plans.
- Statistically the US (Friday exp 2.2% SAAR) and UK (Thursday exp 0.5% q/q 2.1% y/y) top a run of advance / provisional Q4 GDP readings, which includes South Korea and Taiwan. The US also looks to Durable Goods, Advance Goods Trade Balance, New and Existing Home Sales, while Australia, Japan and New Zealand have CPI and other inflation data, while the UK has PSNB Budget data and Japan also looks to its Trade Balance. The Eurozone is dominated by surveys including the German Ifo and other national business and consumer confidence surveys.
- Central banks: there are no Fed speakers (as the FOMC heads into 'purdah' ahead of its 31 Jan/1 Feb meeting), but ECB and BoE speakers will be relatively plentiful. Turkey's TCMB policy meeting tops the run of EM central bank meetings with the TCMB seen succumbing to the inevitable by hiking its Repo rate +50 bps to 8.50% and the O/N Lending Rate +75 Bps to 9.25%. Whether this will in reality help to stem the TRY's slide is dubious, given a) it would be a rather timid move when seen in the context of the size of TRY's drop, b) real official rates (as measured vs. the Repo rate) would remain flat to negative, i.e. way below the 4.0-6.0% on offer in the likes of Brazil and Russia, and c) and Turkey's domestic and international political position remains dreadful.
- Politics: Outside of the primary focus on Trump's first week in office, it will also be an important week for the UK and the Brexit process. The UK Supreme Court is expected to confirm the High Court's ruling that Article 50 will have to be triggered with a vote in parliament. While there is talk that the judges may be split (some have suggested 7-4), it is to be hoped that PM May and the Brexit lobby do not try to suggest that this represents a degree of vindication for the government's stance. Be that as it may, PM May is also set to outline a new 'Industrial Strategy', which finds many echoes in the 1970s and 1980s Labour party policy, just as her Davos WEF tirade against individualism had unpleasant overtones of German Nationalist Socialist rhetoric. For example, as my father told me, one of the mantras that was drummed into the teenagers pressganged into the Hitler Youth was 'Mein Land ist alles, Ich bin nichts' (my country is nothing, I am nothing). Likewise President Trump's tirade against the media certainly finds some justification in terms of the deluge of Fake News that is being peddled; however the route he appears to want to pursue, some form of 'alt truth' is no different to Fake News. Indeed it is rather more insidious and above all socially divisive and polarizing, and finds examples in the Soviet and Putin propaganda machines, as well as the oppression of any form of criticism currently being attempted/deployed by Turkish president Erdogan, Hungarian PM Orban and Poland's PiS leader Kaczynski.
- Corporate Earnings: the schedule in the US steps up a pace with more than 80 S&P 500 companies reporting, beginning with McDonald's on Monday, and 3M, Du Pont, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers & Verizon on Tuesday. Boeing and United Technologies report on Wednesday, followed by Intel and Microsoft on Thursday, with Chevron on Friday. As of Friday, Factset report that the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 3.4%, and with 12% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for Q4 2016, 61% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the mean EPS estimate and 47% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the mean sales estimate.
- Govt bonds: the US heads the week with $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr Treasury couponed debt and $15 Bln of a new 2-yr Treausry FRN. The UK sells a new 2057 conventional Gilt via syndication, most likely on Tuesday. After some EUR 30 Bln last week, scheduled sales in the Eurozone are set to drop sharply to around EUR 5.0-6.0 Bln (Dutch 5-yr, German 30-yr and Italian 2-yr Zero and BTPeis), though syndicated sales are mooted for Spain, as well as Austria and Finland. As with equity markets, govt bonds have been rangebound year to date, still looking for a narrative (beyond the confines of financial repression dictated TINA) to grab hold of amid the array of political, economic and monetary policy uncertainties, which seem unlikely to lift anytime soon, though perhaps one or other group of major investors may decide to 'jump the gun', even if the appalling levels of liquidity and market depth would seem to argue against this.
- Commodities/Energy: The weekend 'compliance' meeting of OPEc and Non-OPEC producers struck a self-congratulatory note (see: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-idUSKBN1560CI), suggesting that cuts to output were ahead of schedule. Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih even suggested that excess inventories may be cut by June (and by implication the production cut deal would not 'need' to be extended) - only time will tell, with much depending on how the 2016 demand profile is revised. Elsewhere, the key question for non-precious metals markets is a) what impact the absence of the Chinese markets over the next two weeks will have, particularly on some of the overstretched price pictures, and b) what the profile of Chinese demand will be in the new Lunar Year, particularly given the Chinese authorities' measures to clamp down on property market speculation.
At a loose end this evening?
You are cordially invited to listen…Hosted by Dr. Stu... The N@ked Short Club Happens on Monday, Jan.23 9-10pm/21.00-22.00 hrs., London time, on Resonance 104.4FM within London/online worldwide via www.resonancefm.com:
One hour of loose talk about hedge funds and the state of the world plus poetry and heady music:
No promotional agenda, no commercial intent...just Purest Alpha and Ponzi Bier in these interesting times, with expert guests: Philippe Bonnefoy - CIO, Eleuthera; Marc Ostwald - FX, Rates & EM Strategist, ADM ISI; Margie Lindsay- Editor, Alpha Journal; Robert Duggan - Managing Partner, Mourant Ozannes; plus by telepathic transfer from Virginia, Don Steinbrugge - CEO, Agecroft. Poetry: Maya Binkin. Master Engineer: Chris Dixon.
from Marc Ostwald
