Dentalfloss
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scalp short off our 1.2412 ...finally moving
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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stopped out for decent points
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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1.2412 short left in overnight
Dentalfloss
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S top very tight now
Dentalfloss
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********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's data and events schedule is rather busier today. Statistically UK labour data and South African CPI are on offer ahead of this afternoon's run of US CPI, Industrial Production and NAHB Housing Market Index. In policy terms the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, and is expected to keep policy on hold until H2 2018, with the focus on what tweaks are made to its growth and inflation forecast in its Monetary Policy Report, and whether there are nuanced changes to its overall policy outlook, which has been very neutral for a protracted period. However it is Ms Yellen's comments on the economic outlook which will garner more attention, above all in the context of the fact that Brainard (ueber-Dove) yesterday joined Rosengren, Harker and Bullard in mentioning Fed balance sheet reduction as a policy option, above all if there is a substantial fiscal boost. Markets are "still not on this", and it is clearly being put out there to underline that the Fed has other ways to remove accommodation, other than hiking rates and by extension boosting the USD. Another rash of Q4 Corporate earnings will doubtless focus on Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Netflix, while oil markets will look to OPEC's monthly Oil Market Report, above all in terms of any revisions to the demand outlook, as the first report on OPEC/NOPEC production cut compliance is awaited on January 22nd, with the weekly EIA inventories data delayed until tomorrow due to Monday's holiday. The UK tops the bond auction schedule with £2.75 Bln of 2022 Gilt, while Italy markets a new 2037 BTP via syndication. South Africa's CPI data was disappointing, with both headline (0.4% m/m 6.8% y/y) and core (0.5% m/m 5.9% y/y) rising vs. November and above forecasts, and leaves the ZAR looking rather vulnerable as the "real rates" narrative gets more traction in EM FX (best exemplified by RUB, BRL strength and TRY weakness), and raising some questions over whether the SARB can keep rates on hold at 7.0%, when it meets next week (24th).
** U.K. - Nov/Dec Unemployment / Average Earnings **
- While modest from a bigger picture perspective, UK labour data has been weakening in recent months, despite the headlines which have highlighted record levels of employment. The Dec Claimant Count is expected to edge up for a 5th consecutive month and for the ninth month in the past 10, even if the forecast 5K rise remains very small. The more reliable and closely followed ILO Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at the cyclical low of 4.8%, however the FLS Employment is seen dropping 35K for a second month after slipping 6K in the prior report, thus fractionally accelerating the recently deteriorating trend. By contrast Average Weekly Earnings are forecast to sustain their recent pick-up at 2.6% y/y, which will keep real earnings in positive territory, though it seems likely that the rapid rise in CPI and RPI will see this drop back into negative territory in the next few months.
** U.S.A. - December CPI / Industrial Production **
- NY Fed's Dudley was emphatic yesterday in saying that inflation (in the US) is 'simply not a problem', markets will probably be less sanguine if the actual outturn for today's CPI is higher than expected. The consensus looks for a 0.3% m/m rise that would see the y/y rate vault higher to 2.1% y/y from 1.7% thanks to energy price base effects, with core CPI projected to rise 0.2% m/m for a 2.2% y/y (vs. Nov 2.1%), restrained by auto prices, and with OER ('shelter') starting to show some signs of levelling out. While this would certainly not be indicative of any 'inflation problem', it would still leave US 10-yr yields at 2.35% looking very, very 'skinny' in real terms, particularly if GDP is running at 2.0-2.5%. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are seen rebounding 0.6% and 0.4% m/m respectively, after a primarily (mild weather related) utilities led falls of -0.4% and -0.1% m/m in November. However this would still leave official sector data lagging considerably stronger survey readings, even prior to the election. As with Friday's somewhat disappointing Retail Sales, this leaves the 'Trump bump' narrative still looking for confirmation in actual reported activity terms, rather than surveys.
from Marc Ostwald
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's data and events schedule is rather busier today. Statistically UK labour data and South African CPI are on offer ahead of this afternoon's run of US CPI, Industrial Production and NAHB Housing Market Index. In policy terms the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, and is expected to keep policy on hold until H2 2018, with the focus on what tweaks are made to its growth and inflation forecast in its Monetary Policy Report, and whether there are nuanced changes to its overall policy outlook, which has been very neutral for a protracted period. However it is Ms Yellen's comments on the economic outlook which will garner more attention, above all in the context of the fact that Brainard (ueber-Dove) yesterday joined Rosengren, Harker and Bullard in mentioning Fed balance sheet reduction as a policy option, above all if there is a substantial fiscal boost. Markets are "still not on this", and it is clearly being put out there to underline that the Fed has other ways to remove accommodation, other than hiking rates and by extension boosting the USD. Another rash of Q4 Corporate earnings will doubtless focus on Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Netflix, while oil markets will look to OPEC's monthly Oil Market Report, above all in terms of any revisions to the demand outlook, as the first report on OPEC/NOPEC production cut compliance is awaited on January 22nd, with the weekly EIA inventories data delayed until tomorrow due to Monday's holiday. The UK tops the bond auction schedule with £2.75 Bln of 2022 Gilt, while Italy markets a new 2037 BTP via syndication. South Africa's CPI data was disappointing, with both headline (0.4% m/m 6.8% y/y) and core (0.5% m/m 5.9% y/y) rising vs. November and above forecasts, and leaves the ZAR looking rather vulnerable as the "real rates" narrative gets more traction in EM FX (best exemplified by RUB, BRL strength and TRY weakness), and raising some questions over whether the SARB can keep rates on hold at 7.0%, when it meets next week (24th).
** U.K. - Nov/Dec Unemployment / Average Earnings **
- While modest from a bigger picture perspective, UK labour data has been weakening in recent months, despite the headlines which have highlighted record levels of employment. The Dec Claimant Count is expected to edge up for a 5th consecutive month and for the ninth month in the past 10, even if the forecast 5K rise remains very small. The more reliable and closely followed ILO Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at the cyclical low of 4.8%, however the FLS Employment is seen dropping 35K for a second month after slipping 6K in the prior report, thus fractionally accelerating the recently deteriorating trend. By contrast Average Weekly Earnings are forecast to sustain their recent pick-up at 2.6% y/y, which will keep real earnings in positive territory, though it seems likely that the rapid rise in CPI and RPI will see this drop back into negative territory in the next few months.
** U.S.A. - December CPI / Industrial Production **
- NY Fed's Dudley was emphatic yesterday in saying that inflation (in the US) is 'simply not a problem', markets will probably be less sanguine if the actual outturn for today's CPI is higher than expected. The consensus looks for a 0.3% m/m rise that would see the y/y rate vault higher to 2.1% y/y from 1.7% thanks to energy price base effects, with core CPI projected to rise 0.2% m/m for a 2.2% y/y (vs. Nov 2.1%), restrained by auto prices, and with OER ('shelter') starting to show some signs of levelling out. While this would certainly not be indicative of any 'inflation problem', it would still leave US 10-yr yields at 2.35% looking very, very 'skinny' in real terms, particularly if GDP is running at 2.0-2.5%. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are seen rebounding 0.6% and 0.4% m/m respectively, after a primarily (mild weather related) utilities led falls of -0.4% and -0.1% m/m in November. However this would still leave official sector data lagging considerably stronger survey readings, even prior to the election. As with Friday's somewhat disappointing Retail Sales, this leaves the 'Trump bump' narrative still looking for confirmation in actual reported activity terms, rather than surveys.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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dax
poss break of trend...short term...poss down
poss break of trend...short term...poss down
Dentalfloss
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no it aint..chart comin
Dentalfloss
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no clean break of downtrend...that could happen
1 week of data
1 week of data
Dentalfloss
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dax
a bit more detail
wide supp area starts at 11530...ish
rez starts at 11586 up to 11700..ish
confusion...lol.....good for us
a bit more detail
wide supp area starts at 11530...ish
rez starts at 11586 up to 11700..ish
confusion...lol.....good for us
Dentalfloss
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confused markets better for us
dax,dow,spx confused
ftse not confused
imho
dax,dow,spx confused
ftse not confused
imho
Dentalfloss
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cable...reenter short a few mins ago
tight stop
tight stop
Morning folks,
Ftse - sp 7220 rez 7250-60. Could go lower sp 7200-10. Cable coming off the highs from yesterday could support ftse, if oil joins in then sp 7250 rez 7280.
Cable - see an unwind from yesterday with move to 1.225, staging at sp 1.23 and rez 1.235. I have held a short overnight from 1.24 so self-interest might colour my viewpoint! Could end up back at 1.20 and possibly below later in the year. Anything below 1.20 I'm a long term bull.
Short covering and general dollar weakness propelled move yesterday, but as I said yesterday it's one thing making brexit noises about what the UK will do, remember the EU has a vote as well, and another making it happen. The hard work starts now. Take into account the byzantine complexities of (multiple) trade deals, as well as negotiating brexit, well, If I was a civil servant, I would be saving up my stress leave. Ultimately leaving the EU will permeate every facet of the UK, as a whole, in ways we have not envisaged, legal, structural, wee willie krankie in scotland etc etc. The public service will certainly earn their pensions this time (the EU has made some of them fat, dumb and lazy). I hope they are up to the task and have the leadership in place to make it happen.
Oil WTI - long from 5330. Say no more I am a long term bull on oil. Dips below 53 and particularly @52 and I am buying (after sticking my wet finger in the air of course).
Ftse - sp 7220 rez 7250-60. Could go lower sp 7200-10. Cable coming off the highs from yesterday could support ftse, if oil joins in then sp 7250 rez 7280.
Cable - see an unwind from yesterday with move to 1.225, staging at sp 1.23 and rez 1.235. I have held a short overnight from 1.24 so self-interest might colour my viewpoint! Could end up back at 1.20 and possibly below later in the year. Anything below 1.20 I'm a long term bull.
Short covering and general dollar weakness propelled move yesterday, but as I said yesterday it's one thing making brexit noises about what the UK will do, remember the EU has a vote as well, and another making it happen. The hard work starts now. Take into account the byzantine complexities of (multiple) trade deals, as well as negotiating brexit, well, If I was a civil servant, I would be saving up my stress leave. Ultimately leaving the EU will permeate every facet of the UK, as a whole, in ways we have not envisaged, legal, structural, wee willie krankie in scotland etc etc. The public service will certainly earn their pensions this time (the EU has made some of them fat, dumb and lazy). I hope they are up to the task and have the leadership in place to make it happen.
Oil WTI - long from 5330. Say no more I am a long term bull on oil. Dips below 53 and particularly @52 and I am buying (after sticking my wet finger in the air of course).
Dentalfloss
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cable in a bounce area
Held... 5290-30, tentative long in 5294..tight stop.
Dentalfloss
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lots more foreign money laundering for the UK economy
Atilla
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...seeking-at-least-10-cut-in-f-35-fighter-costs
They can talk free trade up as much as they like. Looking at trade pacts all over the globe action is all about protectionism.
Nothing is free these days.
Trump will be thumping UK interests soon enough.
I think cable wants to test PP. I see three crows on 4H charts.
