Trading with point and figure

- Busier statistical run and Fed speak dominate schedule; German GDP, Sweden
CPI, India Production and CPI, US Claims and Import Prices; 'doves' lead
Fed speaker schedule; Italy, UK and US to auction debt as corporate
issuance picks up

- German 2016 GDP: seen underlining solid momentum going into 2017,
headlines likely to focus on Budget surplus

- Trump press conference: still long on soundbites, short on detail,
and conflict of interests very much front and central

- India CPI / Production: CPI expected to drift lower, but some upside
risks; projected production bounce all down to base effects

- US Import Prices: energy prices to pace rebound, non-energy flat,
but set for first positive y/y reading since mid-2014

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A rather busier day for statistics awaits, with the Japan Economy Watchers Survey to digest, as markets await the preliminary estimate of German 2016 GDP and (likely whopping) budget surplus, Swedish CPI, Italian Industrial Production, India CPI & Industrial Production and US Import prices and weekly jobless claims. A busy day for Fed speak has Yellen preceded by Bullard, Evans and Harker, the latter representing the neutral to super to dovish wing of the FOMC, which has rather more ascendancy this year after the annual rotation of voting regional Fed presidents, and therefore any shift towards a more neutral view of the policy outlook would be of some significance. Meanwhile the UK offers 2.25 Bln of the 'off the run' 2.0% 2025, and the US re-opens the current 30-yr Bond. So what was there to glean from Mr Trump's press conference yesterday? In truth not a lot that was new, with Trump once again offering some bald but very undetailed comments, which his cabinet may well not agree with, as was evident in Mr Tillerson's nomination testimony. Details on the 'repeal/replace' on Medicare will be presented 'soon', he looks to be pursuing a more 'competitive' pricing in the pharmaceutical sector. Both he and Tillerson appeared to be keen to suggest that Putin appeasement was not a central plank of their foreign policy view, though what will occur in reality remains very unclear. Markets remain hypersensitive to his every word, despite the lack of specifics, which confirms that the main risk for equity markets is that too much emphasis has been placed on the potential positives of putative Trump policies, while negatives have been largely glossed over. There is also clearly a very large store of trouble in Trump's unwillingness to fully divorce himself from his business interests, not to mention the nepotism in his 'advising' coterie, which Congress will doubtless focus on more closely if it objects to specific policy initiatives, which hardly makes for stability in government, and is obviously crassly hypocritical in the context of his hollow 'drain the swamp' mantra.

The preliminary 2016 German GDP data are expected to underline that the economy picked up in Q4, and thus goes into 2017 with solid momentum, suggesting that there are upside risks to the consensus view that 2017 GDP will be somewhere between 1.5% and 1.8% y/y. However it is the accompanying Budget surplus data which will inevitably attract most attention.

Indian CPI and Industrial Production will probably attract greater than usual attention, as markets attempt to grapple with what the immediate economic consequences of Modi's 'demonetization' move; CPI is expected to slip modestly in y/y terms to 3.51% from 3.65% y/y, with some upside risks due to a combination of energy prices and a slightly weaker INR. As far as the projected rebound in November Industrial Production to +1.5% y/y from -1.9% y/y, this is predicated on base effects as a steep decline in November 2015 falls out of the comparison.

For the US, Import Prices are projected to reverse November's 0.3% m/m fall with a 0.7% m/m rise, though the rebound will likely be wholly due to energy prices, with non-petroleum prices expected to slip modestly; be that as it may, base effects will ensure that the y/y rate turns positive for the first time since July 2014. Initial Claims have been very volatile in recent weeks, though historically low by any historical standard, with a rebound from a near 43-yr low of 235K last week to an 'around recent average' 255K this week.


from Marc Ostwald
 
carry trade...usdjpy
bulls should be in 113.00 area
lets see what happens

i4kc9u.gif
 
G'day,

Ftse fairly resilient, but not going forward imo, in Sp 7270 area. Don't think much movement anywhere, could drift to 7230-40 and go into holding pattern.

Cable took profits and now playing pullback from 1.23 - thinking will settle 1.22ish if it can get past 1.225.

Oil WTI took some profit but still holding long - still think move to 55 possible , lets see, could be wrong.
 
...Also Aussie at key level 0.75 think it will push over this..a bit, then pullback. Small stake short atm from this area... lets see. Aussie more comfortable at 0.73 area. All imho.
 
dentist007 said:
if it breaks 0.7524 ya could get 0.7581
0.7470 first supp area
lets see what happens
Click to expand...

Thanks for your input Dentist.....:smart:sitting pretty @75050can't make it's mind up.
I'm inclined to think it will break down longer term once the dollar bears are done!
 
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